10631 W Lakewood Dr · Poland, IN 47868

$12,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 544 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1971 0.26 ac lot $22/sqft · 83% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Concrete floors, Great start for you to rebuild as you desire.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1971
• Listed 117 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $12k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $463 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($780 rent vs $12k).
• Recommended offer: $11k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cloverdale Community Schools (rural): math 36% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #167 of 301 in IN (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 120 units permitted in Owen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($83 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Owen County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($11k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $10,920 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 59.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 189.19%
• DSCR: 9.42
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $69,938
• List price: $12,000
• Delta: -82.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.74×
• Total profit: $36,096
• Equity at exit: $10,811

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 25.76×
• Total profit: $83,202
• Equity at exit: $23,313

Cash invested: $3,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47868

• Home prices YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $780 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$63
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $218/yr
• Insurance: −$5
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$164
• Net cashflow: $463

Break-even live

Break-even rent $193

Max offer price $12,000

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,000
• Closing costs: $360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $12,000 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $12,000 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $12,000 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $12,000 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $12,000 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $12,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $12,000 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $12,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $12,000 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $12,000 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $12,000 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $12,000 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-02-22
    listed $12,000 Active 62-char remark

    Show marketing remark (62 chars)

    Concrete floors, Great start for you to rebuild as you desire.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $218 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $218 · $18/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,354
• − Mortgage interest: −$672
• − Property taxes: −$218
• − Insurance: −$858
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$748
• − Management: −$748
• − Depreciation: −$349
• Taxable income: $5,761
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,383
• After-tax cash flow: $4,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cloverdale Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 1802220
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $44,267
• Composite: 32.28/100
• National rank: #5753
• State rank: #167 of 301 in IN

Livability — Poland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,870

Population outlook (Owen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,045 people
• By 2030: 17,930 · -5.9%
• By 2040: 15,507 · -18.6%
• By 2050: 13,253 · -30.4%
• By 2075: 9,364 · -50.8%
• By 2100: 6,686 · -64.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Black 3% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Owen

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.7) · D 23.8% · R 74.5% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.3pp toward R · 2008: -10.3pp · 2024: -50.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.7 2020: R+49.1 2016: R+49.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+10.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.99%
• Current HPI: 246.3509
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-22 Listed $12,000 IRMLS

Property tax history

-7.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $218 · -11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.