151 Stratford Dr · Madison, MS 39110

$312,500

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,925 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2004 0.30 ac lot Est $291k · 8% over $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

UNDER $200,000 in MADISON with 4 BEDROOMS, 2 baths and a formal dining room built in 2003. Subdivision is convenient to I-55 and has a POOL and clubhouse. Wood floors, ceramic tile in kitchen and baths. Neutral colors throughout. Air Conditioning unit was replaced in 2011. Dishwasher and range with gas cooktop are less than 2 years old. Covered front porch and back patio, landscaped yard with sprinkler system in the front and back. 3 walk-in closets. Formal dining chandelier does not remain and will be replaced.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• 0.3 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• MADISON SCHOOL DISTRICT
• HARDWOOD AND TILE FLOORING
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO
• EXCELLENT CURB APPEAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $312k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($506/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.7% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison Station Elementary School (math 76% / reading 75%, grade A, #4 of 375 statewide, top 1%, 1,035 students, 100% FRL); Madison Middle School (math 66% / reading 57%, grade B+, #6 of 179 statewide, top 3%, 1,154 students, 100% FRL); Madison Central High School (math 5% / reading 63%, grade F, #78 of 197 statewide, top 39%, 1,246 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 634 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,492 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.58%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $290,675
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
151 Stratford Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,950 (+1%)	1mo	$312,500	$160	84
302 Chatfield Cv	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,729 (-10%)	3mo	$260,000	$150	67
433 Fairfield Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,937 (+1%)	17mo	$297,500	$154	62
426 Fairfield Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5	2,069 (+8%)	8mo	$310,000	$150	60
102 Hampshire Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,191 (+14%)	1mo	$329,900	$151	55
105 Concord Pl	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,845 (-4%)	6mo	$294,900	$160	52
102 Fairfield Cir	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,889 (-2%)	23mo	$285,000	$151	50
104 Willington Way	0.44mi	3/2.0	2,085 (+8%)	10mo	$312,000	$150	49
1312 Mannsdale Rd # C Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	2,160 (+12%)	7mo	$215,000	$100	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-49,032
• Equity at exit: $46,595

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-43,629
• Equity at exit: $27,019

Cash invested: $87,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39110

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 634
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,505 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,639
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,665/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,452

Max offer price $312,500

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $219	-5% $131	+0% $42	+5% $-46	+10% $-135
Rent	-10% $-156	-5% $-57	+0% $42	+5% $141	+10% $240
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $122	base $42	+0.5pp $-39	+1.0pp $-121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,125
• Closing costs: $9,375
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   status Active
3. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-20
   status Active
5. 2026-03-20
   historical
6. 2026-03-20
   listed $312,500 Active
7. 2013-07-01
   soldstatus
8. 2013-06-14
   soldstatus 517-char remark

   Show marketing remark (517 chars)

   UNDER $200,000 in MADISON with 4 BEDROOMS, 2 baths and a formal dining room built in 2003. Subdivision is convenient to I-55 and has a POOL and clubhouse. Wood floors, ceramic tile in kitchen and baths. Neutral colors throughout. Air Conditioning unit was replaced in 2011. Dishwasher and range with gas cooktop are less than 2 years old. Covered front porch and back patio, landscaped yard with sprinkler system in the front and back. 3 walk-in closets. Formal dining chandelier does not remain and will be replaced.

9. 2013-04-19
   listed $195,000 517-char remark

   Show marketing remark (517 chars)

   UNDER $200,000 in MADISON with 4 BEDROOMS, 2 baths and a formal dining room built in 2003. Subdivision is convenient to I-55 and has a POOL and clubhouse. Wood floors, ceramic tile in kitchen and baths. Neutral colors throughout. Air Conditioning unit was replaced in 2011. Dishwasher and range with gas cooktop are less than 2 years old. Covered front porch and back patio, landscaped yard with sprinkler system in the front and back. 3 walk-in closets. Formal dining chandelier does not remain and will be replaced.

10. 2011-04-11
    soldstatus 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    LOCATION,LOCATION,LOCATION. Great neighborhood, great location. 4BR/2BA split plan plus formal dining. Kitchen has black appliances(microwave, smooth top range & dishwasher). Master suite has double vanities, sep shower, tub and large closet. This home is sold AS-IS. Call your realtor for more information about viewing or placing a bid on this home.

11. 2011-01-20
    listed $180,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    LOCATION,LOCATION,LOCATION. Great neighborhood, great location. 4BR/2BA split plan plus formal dining. Kitchen has black appliances(microwave, smooth top range & dishwasher). Master suite has double vanities, sep shower, tub and large closet. This home is sold AS-IS. Call your realtor for more information about viewing or placing a bid on this home.

12. 2007-01-05
    soldstatus
13. 2006-12-29
    soldstatus
14. 2006-10-25
    listed $195,000
15. 2004-03-15
    soldstatus
16. 2004-03-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,665 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,469 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$804/yr (+$67/mo · 48.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,059
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,505
• − Property taxes: −$1,665
• − Insurance: −$1,562
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,405
• − Management: −$2,405
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$9,091
• Taxable loss: −$4,922
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,181
• After-tax cash flow: $1,687/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Madison

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1556

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madison, MS
• County: Madison County · 75,005 people
• City population: 50,443
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 50,443
• Household income: $125,506
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 227.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 15% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.99%
• Current HPI: 154.6909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+60.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-21 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-04-08 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-20 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-03-20 Listed $312,500 MLSU
• 2026-03-20 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2013-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-06-14 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2013-04-19 Listed $195,000 MLSU
• 2011-04-11 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2011-01-20 Listed $180,000 MLSU
• 2007-01-05 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2006-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-10-25 Listed $195,000 MLSU
• 2004-03-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,665 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.