811 Long Point Rd · Tall Timbers, MD 22469

$399,985

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,616 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 2006 0.40 ac lot $153/sqft · 25% below area Est $533k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Cash flow +2.9/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out the PRICE IMPROVEMENT!! Welcome to 811 Long Point Drive in Hague, VA. This charming Cape Cod-style home sits on a spacious, private lot surrounded by mature trees, creating a peaceful setting just minutes from the water. Inside, enjoy a bright open floor plan with updated flooring and a beautifully renovated kitchen featuring butcher block countertops, farmhouse sink, stainless appliances, and an oversized gas range. The flexible layout includes spacious bedrooms and a large upper-level area that could be a huge primary suite or bonus space. Outdoor features include a welcoming front porch, rear deck, and an impressive detached garage/workshop with electric, high ceilings, and amp

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2006

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Has garage; Oversized garage; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Well water; City/County sewer; Electric water heater; Electric power
• Home design: Detached Cape Cod; 1.5 stories with 2 living levels; Crawlspace foundation; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof; Crawl foundation; Vinyl exterior siding; Detached workshop and storage shed
• Exterior features: Deck; Wooded yard; Back privacy fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Breakfast area
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom; Additional bedroom; Two bedrooms have ensuite baths
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Oil heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Satellite dish; Double primary sink; Walk-in closet; Main floor bedroom with full bathroom; Office/Study; Pantry; Utility closet; Workshop
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Main floor laundry; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (61.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (65.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (65.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#466 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Westmoreland County Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #105 of 131 in VA (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 220 units permitted in Westmoreland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Westmoreland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $345k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 41% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,009 (65.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 65% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.35% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.16%
• DSCR: 0.37
• GRM: 24.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $532,713
• List price: $399,985
• Delta: -24.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
630 Warner Ln	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,436 (-7%)	20mo	$484,900	$199	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $129,290
• Equity at exit: $360,338

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.02×
• Total profit: $449,958
• Equity at exit: $777,083

Cash invested: $111,996 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22469

• Home prices YoY: 22.9%
• Price-to-rent: 24.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,390 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,866/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $-1,388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,147

Max offer price $154,788

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,996
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,985 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,985 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,985 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,985 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $399,985 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,985 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,985 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,985 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,985 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,985 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,985 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    price $399,985 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $425,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    listed $425,000 Active 791-char remark
18. 2026-05-02
    listed $425,000 791-char remark
19. 2026-03-03
    historical
20. 2025-11-10
    listed $425,000 Active
21. 2025-08-30
    listed $425,000 Active
22. 2025-08-25
    historical
23. 2023-06-21
    soldstatus $345,000
24. 2023-06-16
    soldstatus $345,000 Closed
25. 2023-05-22
    historical Active Under Contract
26. 2023-04-22
    price $354,900
27. 2023-04-02
    price $359,900
28. 2023-03-16
    listed $369,900 Active
29. 2017-03-24
    soldstatus $185,000
30. 2007-04-12
    soldstatus $207,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,866 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,113 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,247/yr (+$104/mo · 66.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 88% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 41% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,405
• − Property taxes: −$1,866
• − Insurance: −$2,797
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,334
• − Management: −$1,334
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$24,693
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,926
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,730/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westmoreland County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103980
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -47.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,665
• Composite: 39.94/100
• National rank: #3845
• State rank: #105 of 131 in VA

Livability — Tall Timbers

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #466
• US rank: #26296

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,046
• Population (ZIP): 1,986

Population outlook (Westmoreland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,643 people
• By 2030: 17,520 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 17,041 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 16,397 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 15,012 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 12,917 · -26.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 41% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Westmoreland

• 2024 margin: R (+14.3) · D 42.4% · R 56.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: -14.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.3 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.3 2012: D+0.5 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 56.12%
• Current HPI: 300.9225
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+93.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $399,985 REINMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $425,000 REINMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $425,000 REINMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $425,000 NNAR
• 2025-08-30 Listed $425,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-25 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $345,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-16 Sold (MLS) $345,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-22 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-22 Price Changed $354,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-02 Price Changed $359,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-16 Listed $369,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $207,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,866 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.