2837 Winchester St · Baltimore, MD 21216

$180,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,452 sqft · Townhouse public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1920 1,452 sqft lot Est $151k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TURN KEY PORCH FRONT ROWHOME WITH LARGE ROOM SIZES & UPDATED KITCHEN! Spacious LR & sep DR w/ hw floors, updated kitchen w/ ss appliances & tile backsplash, main level half bath, upper level w/ 3 bedrooms & 1 full bath, unfinished basement for storage, and rear fenced patio!

Key facts

• Brick row home
• Updated kitchen
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• BRICK ROW HOME
• LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FENCED BACKYARD
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• LARGE UNFINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking (public)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas for heating, hot water and cooling fuel; Cable TV available
• Home design: Interior townhouse / rowhouse; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Rubber roof; Permanent foundation; Above- and below-grade structures; Built year recorded by assessor
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Sidewalks; Street lights

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Built-in microwave; Gas oven/range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Wood floors; Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (upper level); One half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Radiator heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Open floor plan with combination dining/living area; Recessed lighting; Ceiling fans; Upgraded countertops; Kitchen table space; Stall shower and tub/shower; High walls/ceilings with drywall; Wood floors; Carpeted areas
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (dryer is gas); Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,795/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 2264% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $180k implies a 592% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,300 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.07%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $151,008
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2920 Brighton St	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,440 (-1%)	2mo	$247,500	$172	77
2711 Riggs Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,288 (-11%)	2mo	$134,000	$104	73
1625 N Rosedale St	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,396 (-4%)	2mo	$36,000	$26	71
3018 Presstman St	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-4%)	1mo	$108,000	$77	70
2404 W Lafayette Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,476 (+2%)	2mo	$135,000	$91	67
3020 Brighton St	0.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,406 (-3%)	2mo	$209,000	$149	66
3004 Brighton St	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,288 (-11%)	1mo	$44,000	$34	65
2514 W Lafayette Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+7%)	2mo	$232,000	$149	61
1528 N Ellamont St	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,328 (-8%)	1mo	$209,000	$157	58
1601 Ruxton Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,568 (+8%)	1mo	$90,000	$57	55
2400 W Lafayette Ave	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (+9%)	2mo	$263,000	$166	49
2435 Lauretta Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,260 (-13%)	1mo	$45,000	$36	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-7,171
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $39,826
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21216

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,795 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,724/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,472

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2806 Riggs Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1412	$1,900	$1.35	3d	1	0.07mi
2728 Winchester St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1260	$1,800	$1.43	3d	1	0.13mi
2744 W Mosher St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1412	$2,100	$1.49	23d	1	0.15mi
1402 Poplar Grove St Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1540	$800	$0.52	43d	1	0.19mi
1042 Ellicott Dr Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	43d	1	0.22mi
3003 Presstman St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1450	$1,400	$0.97	44d	1	0.27mi
3003 Presstman St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1450	$1,300	$0.90	23d	1	0.27mi
2800 Presstman St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1460	$1,799	$1.23	23d	1	0.27mi
3238 Westmont Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1280	$1,600	$1.25	43d	1	0.33mi
3015 Rayner Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	43d	1	0.35mi
1530 N Rosedale St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,895	$1.15	14d	1	0.38mi
1513 N Ellamont St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1700	$1,700	$1.00	23d	1	0.39mi
3127 Baker St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	43d	1	0.42mi
2922 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,900	$1.17	43d	1	0.44mi
3309 Brighton St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,700	$1.50	43d	1	0.48mi
2636 Lauretta Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1232	$1,900	$1.54	43d	1	0.54mi
3003 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	841	$935	$1.11	2d	3	0.56mi
2609 Lauretta Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1286	$1,675	$1.30	23d	1	0.57mi
2301 Riggs Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1072	$1,600	$1.49	23d	1	0.59mi
780 Linnard St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,590	$1.30	43d	1	0.59mi
2815 W Mulberry St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1040	$2,050	$1.97	43d	1	0.60mi
798 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,295	$1.69	23d	1	0.60mi
787 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1116	$1,575	$1.41	23d	1	0.61mi
918 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1485	$1,750	$1.18	43d	1	0.62mi
2303 Calverton Heights Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1314	$2,250	$1.71	23d	1	0.64mi
2636 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,475	$1.51	4d	1	0.65mi
1617 Moreland Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	23d	1	0.65mi
1617-A Moreland Ave Unit 2nd Flr Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,400	$0.93	43d	1	0.67mi
730 Linnard St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1360	$1,750	$1.29	23d	1	0.68mi
2917 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	4.0	1700	$2,150	$1.26	23d	1	0.70mi
3423 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1400	$1,710	$1.22	43d	1	0.72mi
2812 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1650	$1,850	$1.12	43d	1	0.73mi
2405 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	1826	$1,900	$1.04	4d	1	0.74mi
623 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	23d	1	0.77mi
3507 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1428	$2,300	$1.61	43d	1	0.77mi
1816 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	10d	1	0.80mi
1816 N Bentalou St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	23d	1	0.80mi
405 N Edgewood St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1408	$2,950	$2.10	4d	1	0.82mi
3017 Poplar Ter Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	880	$1,349	$1.53	23d	1	0.84mi
3712 Gelston Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	23d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $180,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $185,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $185,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,724 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,843 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$119/yr (+$10/mo · 6.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,724
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,723
• − Management: −$1,723
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $146
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$35
• After-tax cash flow: $3,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 29,426
• Household income: $42,031
• Rent vs Own: 49.8% rent · 50.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2264.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% White 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.42%
• Current HPI: 164.3933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.10%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+147.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-26 Price Changed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $182,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-08-23 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-05 Price Changed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-06-28 Listed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-06-17 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records
• 2017-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 2017-02-28 Sold (MLS) $51,000 MRIS
• 2017-02-28 Sold (MLS) $51,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-01-24 Pending — MRIS
• 2017-01-07 Price Changed $47,500 MRIS
• 2016-12-13 Price Changed $54,500 MRIS
• 2016-08-29 Listed $74,900 MRIS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,724 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.