39M Cambridge Ct · Leisure Village, NJ 08701

$164,888

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 841 sqft · Condo public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1964 $196/sqft · 8% above area Est $153k · 8% over $385/mo HOA · 18% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.0/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELCOME TO LEISURE VILLAGE, THE ORIGINAL ADULT COMMUNITY AND HOME OF THE 7 LAKES! THIS DESIRABLE LANCASTER MODEL OFFERS 2 BEDROOMS, 1 BATH, AND PRIME LAKEFRONT LOCATION. ENJOY ALL THE AMENITIES THIS VIBRANT COMMUNITY HAS TO OFFER, INCLUDING 2 POOLS, 40 CLUBS, SHUFFLELEBOARD, PICKLEBALL, BOCCE, EXERCISE ROOM, AND SO MUCH MORE. EXPERIENCE LAKEFRONT LIVING AND AN ACTIVE LIFESTYLE IN A WELCOMING COMMUNITY DESIGNED FOR COMFORT, RECREATION, AND CONNECCTION. PUT THIS ON YOUR LIST TO SEE!!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1964
• Listed 78 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 6.0% in Leisure Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#416 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lakewood Township School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #417 of 472 in NJ (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 419 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $165k implies a 251% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,994 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.65%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,005
• List price: $164,888
• Delta: 7.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-10,217
• Equity at exit: $24,585

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $12,919
• Equity at exit: $14,257

Cash invested: $46,169 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08701

• Active inventory: 419
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,120 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,208/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$385
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,796

Max offer price $164,888

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,222
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106A Edinburgh Ln Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	858	$2,200	$2.56	17d	1	0.09mi
47L Cambridge Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	841	$1,795	$2.13	24d	1	0.13mi
278C Kingston Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,250	$2.25	1d	1	0.45mi
341B Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,275	$2.32	21d	1	0.46mi
335A Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$1,950	$1.99	18d	1	0.57mi
219 Buckingham Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,900	$2.87	43d	1	0.58mi
1042C Aberdeen Dr Unit C Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,000	$2.04	3d	1	1.29mi
824A Balmoral Ct Unit A Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,200	$2.24	18d	1	1.30mi
829A Balmoral Ct Unit 1001 Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,600	$2.41	24d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $385 · $4,620/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,888 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,888 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,888 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,888 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,888 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,888 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,888 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,888 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,888 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $164,888 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,888 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,888 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,888 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,888 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    listed $164,888 Active 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    WELCOME TO LEISURE VILLAGE, THE ORIGINAL ADULT COMMUNITY AND HOME OF THE 7 LAKES! THIS DESIRABLE LANCASTER MODEL OFFERS 2 BEDROOMS, 1 BATH, AND PRIME LAKEFRONT LOCATION. ENJOY ALL THE AMENITIES THIS VIBRANT COMMUNITY HAS TO OFFER, INCLUDING 2 POOLS, 40 CLUBS, SHUFFLELEBOARD, PICKLEBALL, BOCCE, EXERCISE ROOM, AND SO MUCH MORE. EXPERIENCE LAKEFRONT LIVING AND AN ACTIVE LIFESTYLE IN A WELCOMING COMMUNITY DESIGNED FOR COMFORT, RECREATION, AND CONNECCTION. PUT THIS ON YOUR LIST TO SEE!!

16. 2025-09-11
    listed $198,888 Active
17. 2002-02-01
    soldstatus $47,000
18. 2001-07-05
    listed $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,208 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,657 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,449/yr (+$121/mo · 119.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,236
• − Property taxes: −$1,208
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,035
• − Management: −$2,035
• − HOA: −$4,620
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable income: $686
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$165
• After-tax cash flow: $2,906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakewood Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408220
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,301
• Composite: 19.21/100
• National rank: #8813
• State rank: #417 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #14624

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 139,149
• Household income: $64,959
• Rent vs Own: 48.5% rent · 51.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 5757.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 5% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -682.83%
• Current HPI: 465.344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+199.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $164,888 MOMLS
• 2025-09-11 Listed $198,888 MOMLS
• 2002-02-01 Sold (MLS) $47,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-07-05 Listed $55,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,208 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.