4464 Yaupon Holly Way · Lakeland, FL 33811

$379,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,077 sqft · Land · 118 Days on market

Built 2026 6,098 sqft lot $40/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Situated within close proximity to Plant City, Tampa and Orlando, and located just off I-4 and the Polk Parkway, Lakeland is convenient to both Tampa and Orlando. Access Florida Polytechnic University, a top engineering school in Florida, just a short drive north, or travel northeast to downtown Lakeland, which boasts a vibrant city center, plentiful. The City of Lakeland is home to many natural parks as well. Locals will enjoy the Kelly Recreation Complex nearby, a 30,000+ square foot facility that provides a variety of features and activities. Your home at Summerlin at Hawthrone Ranch will be in the center of it all!! * Photos are of similar model but not that of the

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $1,927; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Leland Management, Inc; Monthly HOA fee $40; Association fee required; Street lights in community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; BB/HS internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected; Phone available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction (projected completion Feb 17, 2026); One story; Facing east; Under construction
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Builder: D.R. Horton (model: Lakeside); Builder license CBC1265174; Permit BLD25-06983; Year: new construction
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Exterior lighting; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Irrigation equipment; City limits lot; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric, heat pump); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Blinds; Disposal; Exhaust fan
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Dryer; Electric water heater

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-442 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $316k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: R. Bruce Wagner Elementary School (math 54% / reading 42%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 946 students, 46% FRL); Sleepy Hill Middle School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 1,090 students, 66% FRL); George W. Jenkins Senior High (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,451 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 363 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($346k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $281,503 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.99%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-97,918
• Equity at exit: $56,658

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-153,137
• Equity at exit: $32,855

Cash invested: $106,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33811

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,815 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$475 /mo · $5,700/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $-442

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,375

Max offer price $316,010

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-180	-5% $-311	+0% $-442	+5% $-573	+10% $-705
Rent	-10% $-665	-5% $-553	+0% $-442	+5% $-331	+10% $-220
Rate	-1.0pp $-251	-0.5pp $-346	base $-442	+0.5pp $-541	+1.0pp $-641

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,998
• Closing costs: $11,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5038 Foxglove Cir Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.0	2670	$2,850	$1.07	4d	1	0.36mi
5694 Arlington River Dr Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.0	2885	$2,700	$0.94	25d	1	0.52mi
3978 White Ibis Rd Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1711	$2,395	$1.40	16d	1	0.56mi
5463 Arlington River Dr Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.0	2419	$2,800	$1.16	25d	1	0.57mi
4301 Salt Springs Ln Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.5	2585	$2,600	$1.01	5d	1	0.77mi
3883 White Ibis Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0	1628	$2,434	$1.50	4d	1	0.80mi
3973 Spruce Creek Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1929	$2,200	$1.14	25d	1	0.94mi
6265 Dolostone Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	3.0	2038	$3,000	$1.47	5d	1	1.02mi
3615 Peregrine Way Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.5	2095	$3,200	$1.53	4d	1	1.15mi
3668 Sandhill Crane Dr Unit A11 Lakeland, FL	4.0	3.0	2079	$2,344	$1.13	13d	1	1.23mi
5340 Song Sparrow Ct Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1701	$2,076	$1.22	25d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $379,990 Pending 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $379,990 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $379,990 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $379,990 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-05-08
   price $379,990
6. 2026-02-05
   listed $378,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,285
• − Property taxes: −$5,700
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,702
• − Management: −$2,702
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$11,054
• Taxable loss: −$12,044
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,891
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,472
• Household income: $90,263
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 477.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.57%
• Current HPI: 309.0061
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.19%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $379,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Listed $378,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid