11611 Pebbleton Dr · Houston, TX 77070

$264,999

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,690 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1976 9,600 sqft lot $99/sqft · 24% below area Est $349k · 24% under $60/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This well-appointed Houston home opens with a formal sitting room before revealing a spacious kitchen that flows into the dining space and a warm, character-filled living room. The living room impresses with a wet bar, a cozy brick fireplace, and built-in shelving — a space that feels both elevated and inviting. The primary suite offers an ensuite bath and a walk-in closet, while three additional bedrooms provide great flexibility, one with its own ensuite half bath. Outside, the fully fenced yard delivers both a covered and open patio alongside generous greenspace ready to enjoy. Check out the garage, it has more space than what it looks like. Solid dining options surround the area,

Key facts

• Wet bar
• Brick fireplace
• Formal sitting room

Tags

• FORMAL SITTING ROOM
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• WET BAR
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• BUILT-IN SHELVING
• ENSUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community: Lakewood Forest/SBB; Annual association fee of $720

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces northeast; Full ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1976
• Exterior features: Private yard; Backs to greenbelt/park; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven; Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; Primary bedroom located on the second floor; Additional bedrooms located on the second floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Two half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with private bath; Tub/shower; Vanity; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-259 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Moore El (math 43% / reading 49%, grade D-, #1,097 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 995 students, 62% FRL); Hamilton Middle (math 65% / reading 67%, grade A-, #92 of 1,662 statewide, top 6%, 1,538 students, 39% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 242 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $99k; list at $265k implies a 168% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,284 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.19%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,808
• List price: $264,999
• Delta: -24.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11407 Faulkey Gully Ct	0.23mi	3/2.5	2,625 (-2%)	1mo	$450,000	$171	82
11710 Pebbleton Dr	0.09mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,355 (-12%)	2mo	$350,000	$149	66
11503 Aspenway Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5	2,655 (-1%)	2mo	$399,000	$150	61
12023 Normont Drive Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,790 (+4%)	1mo	$349,900	$125	58
11403 Parkriver Dr	0.28mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,027 (+12%)	2mo	$510,000	$168	57
11727 Gardenglen Dr	0.60mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,783 (+4%)	3mo	$280,000	$101	57
11719 Jaycreek Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,289 (-15%)	1mo	$325,000	$142	53
11711 Cedar Point Ct	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,974 (+11%)	1mo	$334,800	$113	53
11922 Moorcreek Dr	0.45mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,034 (+13%)	1mo	$315,000	$104	50
12015 Laneview Dr	0.56mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,992 (+11%)	2mo	$419,900	$140	46
11602 Aspenway Dr	0.64mi	3/2.5	2,332 (-13%)	3mo	$362,888	$156	44
11918 Gardenglen Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,383 (-11%)	1mo	$349,000	$146	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.91% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-64,134
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-95,579
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77070

• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,401 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$596 /mo · $7,150/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,729

Max offer price $219,284

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-109	-5% $-184	+0% $-259	+5% $-334	+10% $-409
Rent	-10% $-448	-5% $-354	+0% $-259	+5% $-164	+10% $-69
Rate	-1.0pp $-125	-0.5pp $-191	base $-259	+0.5pp $-327	+1.0pp $-397

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14715 Spring Lake Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1793	$2,100	$1.17	45d	1	0.66mi
12214 Cypresswood Dr Houston, TX	4.0	7.0	3606	$4,000	$1.11	45d	1	0.83mi
11906 Cottonwood Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	2110	$2,145	$1.02	9d	1	0.90mi
11927 Pondwood Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	3.0	1868	$2,600	$1.39	45d	1	0.99mi
12311 Oak Park Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2347	$2,300	$0.98	22d	1	1.05mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $264,999 Pending 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,999 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,999 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $264,999 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $264,999 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $264,999 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $264,999 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $264,999 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $264,999 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-05-08
    price $264,999 854-char remark
11. 2026-04-23
    listed $274,999 Active 854-char remark
12. 2003-09-25
    soldstatus
13. 2003-08-03
    historical
14. 2002-11-05
    listed $137,000
15. 1996-11-01
    soldstatus $99,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,150 · $596/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,150 · $596/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$7,150
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,305
• − Management: −$2,305
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$7,541
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,810
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,229
• Household income: $77,397
• Rent vs Own: 52.5% rent · 47.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2924.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 35% Hispanic / Latino 31% Black 19% Two or more races 16% Asian 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.95%
• Current HPI: 232.3128
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.91%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+167.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $264,999 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $274,999 HARMLS
• 2003-09-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-08-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2002-11-05 Listed $137,000 HARMLS
• 1996-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,150 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.