131 Lakeview Dr · Nocona Hills, TX 76255

$90,249

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1980 1.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NICE FIXER UPPER! We have a new listing available in Nocona! This home is a great investment that needs some fixing but can become a wonderful living space out in a lakeside setting. The home sits on almost an acre and a half of land, which provides you with ample yard and expansion space. Here you will be just down the road from Lake Nocona, and other destinations such as Weldon Robb Park, Boone Park, and multiple churches. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• Expansion space
• Almost an acre
• Ample yard

Tags

• ALMOST AN ACRE
• AMPLE YARD
• EXPANSION SPACE
• DOWN THE ROAD FROM LAKE NOCONA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $400 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 1.4% in Nocona Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,410 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Prairie Valley ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #453 of 1,141 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 23 units permitted in Montague County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $624 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montague County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,834 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.99%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $10,820
• Equity at exit: $13,456

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $42,107
• Equity at exit: $7,803

Cash invested: $25,270 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76255

• Home prices YoY: -12.5%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$473
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $446/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $694

Max offer price $90,249

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,562
• Closing costs: $2,707
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
179 Oak St Nocona, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,200	$0.96	43d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-16
   listed $90,249 Active
3. 2007-08-20
   soldstatus
4. 2005-12-16
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $446 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,652 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,205/yr (+$100/mo · 270.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,055
• − Property taxes: −$446
• − Insurance: −$451
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$2,625
• Taxable income: $3,518
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$844
• After-tax cash flow: $3,955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prairie Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835730
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,953
• Composite: 42.57/100
• National rank: #6843
• State rank: #453 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Nocona Hills

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1410
• US rank: #24170

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nocona Hills, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,725

Population outlook (Montague County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,216 people
• By 2030: 17,603 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 16,451 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 15,424 · -15.3%
• By 2075: 13,365 · -26.6%
• By 2100: 10,998 · -39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montague

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.7) · D 10.9% · R 88.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -58.5pp · 2024: -77.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.7 2020: R+76.6 2016: R+77.2 2012: R+70.1 2008: R+58.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.13%
• Current HPI: 183.6308
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $90,249 HARMLS
• 2007-08-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-12-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $446 · -67.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.