Sherman Plan · Uhland, TX 78640

$264,499

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,193 sqft · SingleFamily · 220 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GAME ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $264,499 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $271,048.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $264k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-368 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,385 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hemphill El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 577 students, 71% FRL); D J Red Simon Middle (math 16% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 733 students, 78% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 43% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hays CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2407 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 29d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $190,572 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.81%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,048
• List price: $264,499
• Delta: 0.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 Canadian Cv	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,162 (-1%)	3mo	$257,999	$119	77
124 Canadian Cv	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,162 (-1%)	4mo	$282,990	$131	76
191 Muscovy Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,891 (-14%)	2mo	$243,999	$129	73
580 Whoopers Loop	0.40mi	4/2.5	1,891 (-14%)	3mo	$244,999	$130	56
771 Whoopers Loop	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,867 (-15%)	1mo	$250,999	$134	56
170 Pink Footed Pass	0.43mi	4/2.5	1,897 (-14%)	2mo	$204,999	$108	55
220 Pink Footed Pass	0.42mi	4/2.5	1,897 (-14%)	4mo	$236,490	$125	55
155 Orange Flame Blvd	0.46mi	4/3.0	1,892 (-14%)	0mo	$253,665	$134	53
164 Orange Flame Blvd	0.46mi	4/3.0	1,897 (-14%)	1mo	$253,260	$134	53
145 Spotbill Ct	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,922 (-12%)	1mo	$248,999	$130	52
1181 Celosia Loop	0.53mi	4/3.0	1,897 (-14%)	0mo	$283,450	$149	50
156 Spotbill Ct	0.55mi	4/2.5	1,867 (-15%)	1mo	$249,999	$134	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-72,892
• Equity at exit: $40,414

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.52×
• Total profit: $-115,091
• Equity at exit: $23,435

Cash invested: $75,894 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 48 active · 46 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.4 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $249,494 ($134/sqft)
• Median days on market: 79 d
• This list price: 77% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -8.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 2407
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,906 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,421
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$339 /mo · $4,066/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,371

Max offer price $217,851

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-180	-5% $-274	+0% $-368	+5% $-461	+10% $-555
Rent	-10% $-518	-5% $-443	+0% $-368	+5% $-292	+10% $-217
Rate	-1.0pp $-231	-0.5pp $-299	base $-368	+0.5pp $-438	+1.0pp $-509

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,762
• Closing costs: $8,131
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
787 Arnold Loop , TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,300	$1.25	2d	1	0.30mi
433 Whoopers Loop Uhland, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,599	$1.08	5d	1	0.30mi
263 Speckled Belly Bnd Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,600	$1.00	80d	1	0.38mi
785 Whoopers Loop Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1614	$1,698	$1.05	29d	1	0.43mi
785 Whoopers Loop Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1614	$1,698	$1.05	9d	1	0.43mi
222 Arnold Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,673	$1.10	67d	1	0.47mi
190 Celosia Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1486	$2,200	$1.48	2d	1	0.48mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	119d	1	0.50mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	139d	1	0.50mi
151 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,600	$1.08	119d	1	0.50mi
129 Pineland Ave Niederwald, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1512	$1,399	$0.93	3d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $264,499 Active 220 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   pricedays on market $264,499 Active 219 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $271,999 Active 218 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $271,999 Active 217 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $271,999 Active 216 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $271,999 Active 215 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $271,999 Active 214 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $271,999 Active 213 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $271,999 Active 212 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $271,999 Active 211 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $271,999 Active 210 DOM
12. 2026-09-14
    price $271,999 Active 209 DOM
13. 2026-09-13
    days on market $273,999 Active 209 DOM
14. 2026-09-12
    days on market $273,999 Active 208 DOM
15. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $273,999 Active 207 DOM
16. 2026-09-05
    days on market $277,999 Active 201 DOM
17. 2026-09-04
    days on market $277,999 Active 200 DOM
18. 2026-09-03
    days on market $277,999 Active 199 DOM
19. 2026-08-31
    days on market $277,999 Active 196 DOM
20. 2026-08-30
    days on market $277,999 Active 195 DOM
21. 2026-08-29
    days on market $277,999 Active 194 DOM
22. 2026-08-28
    days on market $277,999 Active 193 DOM
23. 2026-08-27
    days on market $277,999 Active 192 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $277,999 Active 190 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $277,999 Active 189 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $277,999 Active 188 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $277,999 Active 187 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $277,999 Active 186 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $277,999 Active 185 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $277,999 Active 184 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $277,999 Active 183 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $277,999 Active 182 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $277,999 Active 181 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $277,999 Active 180 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $277,999 Active 179 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $277,999 Active 178 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $277,999 Active 176 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $277,999 Active 175 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $277,999 Active 174 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $277,999 Active 173 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $277,999 Active 171 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $277,999 Active 170 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $277,999 Active 169 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $277,999 Active 168 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $277,999 Active 165 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $277,999 Active 163 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $277,999 Active 162 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $277,999 Active 160 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $277,999 Active 158 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $277,999 Active 157 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,869
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,183
• − Property taxes: −$4,066
• − Insurance: −$1,355
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,829
• − Management: −$1,829
• − Depreciation: −$7,885
• Taxable loss: −$9,279
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,227
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a luxurious owner's suite and a versatile game room, making it ideal for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve the home's appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hemphill El F TX #2,791/4,322 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 Middle D J Red Simon Middle F TX #1,466/1,662 Nat'l #11,948/14,009 High Lehman H S F TX #1,234/1,632 Nat'l #12,251/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 54/100

Livability — Uhland

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1385
• US rank: #23774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Uhland, TX
• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $272,499 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $271,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $272,499 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $271,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $271,990 Zillow