524 HILO Rd · Hay, MI 48624

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 901 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 1975 0.25 ac lot Est $164k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Impeccable Waterfront cottage with 105 ft of waterfront on Main Smallwood Lake. Very well maintained & neat as a pin. Kitchen has a snack bar & is open to the waterfront dining area that is large enough for an additional couch. Newer windows with a Beautiful view of the lake from almost every room the house. Livingroom has a door wall to the large, attached waterfront deck, that will be newly stained. Enclosed Waterfront Sun Porch that leads to the deck as well. Large entry room for storage. Quiet area, near the end of a dead-end road. Propane Tank is owned.

Key facts

• Newer windows
• View of the lake
• 105 ft of waterfront

Tags

• 105 FT OF WATERFRONT
• WATERFRONT DINING AREA
• NEWER WINDOWS
• VIEW OF THE LAKE
• ATTACHED WATERFRONT DECK
• ENCLOSED WATERFRONT SUN PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Road surface: Gravel; Zoning: Residential; Acreage: 0.25

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic system; LP/Propane gas heating fuel
• Home design: Residential, 1 story; Built in 1975; Located on a road in a township (Hay Twp), in the HI-LO SUB subdivision; Frontage approximately 105 feet
• Construction: Wood construction; Crawl foundation; Built in 1975
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Shed; Waterfront property with water frontage on Smallwood

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (12 x 14)
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms, each about 10 x 10
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on main level (approx. 5 x 6)
• Heating & cooling: Wall heat; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Sun/Florida room on main level (18 x 6); Living room (12 x 12); Dining room (14 x 12)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $396 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Gladwin Community Schools (town): math 28% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #232 of 540 in MI (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 288 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Gladwin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gladwin County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,525 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.73%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,982
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
625 E Sun Oil Rd	0.18mi	2/1.0	824 (-8%)	22mo	$150,000	$182	59
620 Bushong Beach Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+11%)	13mo	$100,000	$100	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,485
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $31,282
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48624

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,928 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,649/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,427

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $490	-5% $443	+0% $396	+5% $349	+10% $303
Rent	-10% $244	-5% $320	+0% $396	+5% $472	+10% $548
Rate	-1.0pp $479	-0.5pp $438	base $396	+0.5pp $353	+1.0pp $310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 568-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $165,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,649 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,095 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$446/yr (+$37/mo · 27.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,649
• − Insurance: −$1,492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,851
• − Management: −$1,851
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $2,251
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$540
• After-tax cash flow: $4,214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gladwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2615990
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,917
• Composite: 32.93/100
• National rank: #5595
• State rank: #232 of 540 in MI

Livability — Hay

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,269

Population outlook (Gladwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,440 people
• By 2030: 22,281 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 19,867 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 17,667 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 12,909 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 8,629 · -63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gladwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.7) · D 29.1% · R 69.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.2pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.7 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+7.2 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.67%
• Current HPI: 238.0744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+3.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $165,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-24 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-05-23 Listed $165,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-08-10 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-06-09 Listed $159,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,649 · -42.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.