743 Warbler Pl · Vass, NC 28394

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,190 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1988 0.35 ac lot Est $265k · 21% under $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ESTATE SALE! Handyman special, 3-bedroom 2 bath ranch home now available in Woodlake. Private setting, large lot and 2 car garage. Needs some TLC but all major components in good shape. Interior has been recently painted. This would be an excellent rental property or great home for a first-time buyer! Priced to sell! Woodlake CC is under new ownership. The dam reconstruction is well underway. Use of the amenities requires club membership but is not required for residence. Details at www. woodlkaecountryclubnc.com. Road maintenance, security, etc. is provided by the Woodlake POA and funded through an annual dues payment.

Key facts

• Security provided
• Large lot
• Private setting

Tags

• PRIVATE SETTING
• LARGE LOT
• RECENTLY PAINTED
• ROAD MAINTENANCE PROVIDED
• SECURITY PROVIDED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: WOODLAKE; Directions: GPS to 110 Woodlake Blvd to clear security; buyers must be accompanied by an agent to enter Woodlake
• HOA & community: Homeowners association; Annual association fee of $1,200 (approximately $100/month); Community features: gated, golf, street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Gated community with guard
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Located on a cul-de-sac; Cleared, level lot
• Construction: Cedar construction materials
• Exterior features: Playground on-site; Deck; Porch (screened)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans throughout; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Window coverings and blinds; Insulated windows; Gas log fireplace with glass doors in the living room; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry with washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.0% in Vass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#593 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Moore County Schools (rural): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #58 of 178 in NC (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Crain'S Creek Middle (math 37% / reading 47%, grade D-, #199 of 475 statewide, top 43%, 592 students, 51% FRL); Union Pines High (math 63% / reading 70%, grade B, #150 of 535 statewide, top 28%, 1,438 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 225 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 941 units permitted in Moore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Moore County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,850 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.60%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,370
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
633 Lilac Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,362 (+14%)	2mo	$304,000	$223	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-13,463
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $14,667
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28394

• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,113 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $682/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,703

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $210,000 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $210,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $210,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $210,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-05-15
   listed $210,000 Active
6. 2024-12-10
   historical $1,500
7. 2024-11-13
   listed $1,500
8. 2024-11-13
   historical $1,500
9. 2024-11-09
   listed $1,500
10. 2024-11-09
    historical $1,500
11. 2024-10-12
    historical $1,500
12. 2024-10-12
    listed $1,500
13. 2024-10-10
    listed $1,500
14. 2022-05-12
    price $1,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $682 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,722 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,040/yr (+$87/mo · 152.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,352
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$682
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,028
• − Management: −$2,028
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $492
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$118
• After-tax cash flow: $3,763/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moore County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,333
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2967
• State rank: #58 of 178 in NC

Livability — Vass

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #593
• US rank: #21646

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Moore County · 75,247 people
• City population: 5,936
• Metro: Pinehurst-Southern Pines, NC
• Population (ZIP): 5,936
• Household income: $79,643
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 109.0

Population outlook (Moore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,902 people
• By 2030: 113,134 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 125,682 · +17.6%
• By 2050: 137,811 · +28.9%
• By 2075: 164,387 · +53.8%
• By 2100: 175,595 · +64.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 10% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Moore

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -21.4pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+27.4 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+28.1 2008: R+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.99%
• Current HPI: 160.0419
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pinehurst-Southern Pines, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+17400.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $210,000 LPRMLS
• 2024-12-10 Rental Removed $1,500 LPRMLS
• 2024-11-13 Listed for Rent $1,500 LPRMLS
• 2024-11-13 Rental Removed $1,500 APPFOLIO
• 2024-11-09 Listed for Rent $1,500 APPFOLIO
• 2024-11-09 Rental Removed $1,500 TMLS
• 2024-10-12 Rental Removed $1,500 LPRMLS
• 2024-10-12 Listed for Rent $1,500 TMLS
• 2024-10-10 Listed for Rent $1,500 LPRMLS
• 2022-05-12 Price Changed $1,200 RENT.

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $682 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.