2309 Canal Dr Unit F4 · Bayshore Gardens, FL 34207

$68,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 733 sqft · Condo public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1972 $379/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Not a short sale or foreclosure. Nice bottom floor condo with easy access to shopping, beaches, hospital, and restaurants. Mature landscape and shaded trees. Within walking distance to community pool and shuffleboard court.

Key facts

• Grilling areas
• Clubhouse
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN PORCH
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• HEATED POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• GRILLING AREAS
• PROXIMITY TO BEACHES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Buyer approval required for community; Directions available
• Financial info: Total monthly association fees $379; total annual fees $4,548
• HOA & community: Association (Karen) — clubhouse, elevator(s), laundry, pool, shuffleboard court; Monthly condo fee of $379 (includes cable TV, common area taxes, pool, internet, structure and grounds maintenance, management, pest control, private road, trash); Buyer/association approval required; Senior community; Pets not allowed; Lease restrictions apply

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; One level; South facing; Unit on floor 1
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Building F, unit F4
• Exterior features: Outdoor grill; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Storage; Gunite in-ground heated pool; Heated spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room/dining room combo; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds and drapes; Building elevator
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.7% in Bayshore Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in FL, #1,180 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute C-, schools F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $470 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $68k implies a 240% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.

Recommended offer $63,920 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.56%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-5,893
• Equity at exit: $10,139

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-7,564
• Equity at exit: $5,879

Cash invested: $19,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34207

• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 361
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,298 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$357
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,508/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$379
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,126

Max offer price $68,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,000
• Closing costs: $2,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2547 60th Ave W Unit L-36 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,100	$1.91	16d	1	0.05mi
2028 Canal Dr Unit M26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,050	$1.82	10d	1	0.20mi
5955 Palm Ln Unit A33 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,150	$1.55	14d	1	0.25mi
5858 Welcome Rd Unit J23 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,150	$1.55	3d	1	0.29mi
1874 Sunny Dr Unit F32 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$950	$1.28	23d	1	0.29mi
1875 Sunny Dr Unit G32 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,100	$1.91	23d	1	0.32mi
1859 Restful Dr Unit L26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,150	$2.00	23d	1	0.34mi
1839 Sunny Dr Unit E36 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,350	$2.34	23d	1	0.38mi
1825 Flamingo Blvd Unit O26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,000	$1.74	23d	1	0.38mi
1807 Restful Dr Unit N4 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	733	$1,150	$1.57	3d	1	0.39mi
5888 17th St W Unit C23 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,100	$1.91	23d	1	0.40mi
5908 17th St W Unit C36 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$950	$1.65	16d	1	0.43mi
1566 Pleasant Rd Unit J24 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	733	$1,150	$1.57	23d	1	0.48mi
6050 34th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	734	$1,610	$2.19	1d	19	0.67mi
5531 16th St W Unit 5537 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,650	$2.20	3d	1	0.67mi
5400 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	902	$1,651	$1.83	23d	1	0.71mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,450	$1.84	3d	4	0.77mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,450	$1.84	11d	5	0.77mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,550	$1.96	19d	5	0.77mi
2803 52nd Avenue Dr W Unit 2803 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,599	$2.13	23d	1	0.95mi
5001 22nd St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$1,700	$2.33	16d	1	1.20mi
2835 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,610	$1.89	3d	16	1.26mi
4148 53rd Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	989	$2,550	$2.58	1d	1	1.30mi
4148 53rd Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	899	$2,412	$2.68	21d	10	1.30mi
6916 Marlin Ln Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	430	$1,250	$2.91	23d	1	1.32mi
915 50th Avenue Plz W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	23d	1	1.44mi
4705 27th St W Unit A Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,325	$1.77	3d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $379 · $4,548/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $68,000 Pending 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $68,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $68,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $68,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $68,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-04-13
   price $68,000
7. 2026-03-16
   listed $84,900 Active
8. 2013-02-19
   soldstatus $20,000 223-char remark

   Show marketing remark (223 chars)

   Not a short sale or foreclosure. Nice bottom floor condo with easy access to shopping, beaches, hospital, and restaurants. Mature landscape and shaded trees. Within walking distance to community pool and shuffleboard court.

9. 2013-02-19
   soldstatus $20,000

   Show marketing remark (223 chars)

   Not a short sale or foreclosure. Nice bottom floor condo with easy access to shopping, beaches, hospital, and restaurants. Mature landscape and shaded trees. Within walking distance to community pool and shuffleboard court.

10. 2012-08-06
    listed $26,500 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Not a short sale or foreclosure. Nice bottom floor condo with easy access to shopping, beaches, hospital, and restaurants. Mature landscape and shaded trees. Within walking distance to community pool and shuffleboard court.

11. 2011-06-24
    listed $26,500
12. 1989-10-23
    soldstatus $27,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,508 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,508 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,809
• − Property taxes: −$1,508
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,246
• − Management: −$1,246
• − HOA: −$4,548
• − Depreciation: −$1,978
• Taxable income: $901
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$216
• After-tax cash flow: $1,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayshore Gardens

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #1180

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayshore Gardens, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,840
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,081
• Household income: $45,010
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1474.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -305.32%
• Current HPI: 369.9899
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.50%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+147.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $68,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Listed $84,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2013-02-19 Sold (MLS) $20,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-06 Listed $26,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-24 Listed $26,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,508 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.