5228 Cinnamon Ln · Princeton, TX 75407

$264,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,867 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 2025 4,400 sqft lot Est $364k · 27% under $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Acorn South- Morrow Floorplan Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 4,400 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-851/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mayfield El (609 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 56% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,431 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.15%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $364,065
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10650 County Road 491	0.61mi	4/3.0	1,834 (-2%)	3mo	$380,000	$207	62
510 Weller Rd	0.00mi	4/3.5	2,139 (+15%)	14mo	$394,990	$185	58
795 Jupe Way	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,753 (-6%)	2mo	$312,889	$178	58
722 Jupe Way	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,753 (-6%)	2mo	$299,000	$171	55
664 Jupe Way	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,753 (-6%)	16mo	$341,547	$195	55
808 Sicily Blvd	0.47mi	4/2.5	1,674 (-10%)	13mo	$391,949	$234	48
677 Jupe Way	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,675 (-10%)	9mo	$317,630	$190	43
10405 County Road 491	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,121 (+14%)	19mo	$475,000	$224	38
1216 Desert Willow Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-14%)	24mo	$323,999	$202	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-54,141
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-78,770
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,304 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,975/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,394

Max offer price $254,733

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7008 Vining DR Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	1510	$2,500	$1.66	43d	1	0.03mi
750 Jupe Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2500	$2,300	$0.92	43d	1	0.68mi
1567 Dukeswood Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	2429	$2,575	$1.06	17d	1	0.69mi
663 Saxony Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2209	$2,100	$0.95	43d	1	0.78mi
663 Saxony Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2209	$2,250	$1.02	24d	1	0.78mi
649 Saxony Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1674	$2,100	$1.25	12d	1	0.79mi
622 Saxony Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1567	$2,000	$1.28	43d	1	0.82mi
149 Princeton Xrds Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$1,914	$1.95	1d	23	0.88mi
353 Princewood Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$1,950	$1.11	43d	1	0.94mi
461 Princewood Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1749	$1,750	$1.00	24d	1	0.94mi
2304 Dahlia Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$2,125	$1.06	17d	1	0.97mi
200 Lake Rdg Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2586	$2,300	$0.89	1d	1	1.00mi
205 Lake Rdg Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2025	$2,195	$1.08	43d	1	1.01mi
346 Boroughbridge Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2500	$1,975	$0.79	43d	1	1.04mi
264 Moonstone Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,795	$1.00	15d	1	1.05mi
291 Wandering Stream Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,875	$1.04	43d	1	1.06mi
1823 Dahlia Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,950	$1.08	7d	1	1.08mi
219 Golden Sands Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,795	$1.00	16d	1	1.10mi
248 Enchanted Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$1,999	$1.00	43d	1	1.12mi
281 Moonstone Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,895	$1.05	12d	1	1.12mi
280 Moonstone Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,900	$1.06	4d	1	1.13mi
1917 Lilac Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,045	$1.11	43d	1	1.13mi
304 Wandering Stream Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,875	$1.04	43d	1	1.14mi
263 Honeysuckle Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,850	$1.03	43d	1	1.14mi
265 Honeysuckle Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$2,195	$1.01	43d	1	1.15mi
250 N Boorman Ln Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$4,619	$4.93	1d	1	1.16mi
306 Golden Sands Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1811	$1,995	$1.10	43d	1	1.20mi
311 Clear Springs St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2577	$2,245	$0.87	43d	1	1.21mi
1717 Cotton Blossom Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1924	$1,900	$0.99	18d	1	1.21mi
1715 Cotton Blossom Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$2,099	$1.05	43d	1	1.21mi
613 Grenada Lake Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,025	$1.26	2d	1	1.22mi
605 Grenada Lake Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1563	$1,925	$1.23	15d	1	1.23mi
1707 Cotton Blossom Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1811	$2,095	$1.16	4d	1	1.23mi
313 Sweet Pea Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$1,900	$1.05	2d	1	1.26mi
305 Turquoise Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1811	$1,850	$1.02	12d	1	1.28mi
882 Breakwater Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1824	$2,250	$1.23	21d	1	1.29mi
200 Cole St Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	960	$1,799	$1.87	43d	23	1.29mi
200 Cole St Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	960	$1,733	$1.80	1d	9	1.29mi
858 Breakwater Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$2,200	$0.92	43d	1	1.29mi
846 Breakwater Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1824	$2,000	$1.10	2d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   listed $264,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,652
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,975
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,212
• − Management: −$2,212
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$5,346
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,283
• After-tax cash flow: $432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 69,325
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $264,999 NTREIS