16800 Sugar Pine Dr Unit F45 · Houston, TX 77090

$75,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,074 sqft · Condo public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1984 $70/sqft · 27% below area Est $103k · 27% under $401/mo HOA · 32% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +0.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2 bedroom condo with open concept recently remodeled upgrades throughout

Key facts

• Outdoor pool
• Controlled access
• Quick access to i-45

Tags

• OUTDOOR POOL
• CLUB HOUSE
• CONTROLLED ACCESS
• PICNIC AREAS
• PARKING SPACE
• QUICK ACCESS TO I-45

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Managed by Rise Association Management; Monthly association fee; Association amenities include gated access and clubhouse; Association fee covers clubhouse, common area maintenance, structure maintenance, sewer, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Additional parking available
• Security: Security gate
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (1 total story); Built in 1984; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Security gate; Community pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Second bedroom on the second floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: High ceilings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-715/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $64k (14.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bammel Middle (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,623 of 1,662 statewide, top 98%, 837 students, 96% FRL); Westfield H S (math 13% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,632 statewide, top 93%, 2,574 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 66% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-8.0%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $59 of equity ($519 loan paydown + $-460 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $75k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; HOA is 32% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,471 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.41%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,186
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -27.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.61% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-11,411
• Equity at exit: $19,503

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-19,958
• Equity at exit: $21,698

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77090

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: -8.0%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,235 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,518/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$401
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $64,471

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $401 · $4,812/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $75,000 Pending 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $75,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $75,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-05-17
    price $75,000 305-char remark
14. 2026-05-05
    listed $89,000 Active 305-char remark
15. 2024-01-26
    soldstatus Sold 82-char remark

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bedroom condo with open concept recently remodeled upgrades throughout

16. 2024-01-26
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bedroom condo with open concept recently remodeled upgrades throughout

17. 2024-01-20
    status Pending 82-char remark

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bedroom condo with open concept recently remodeled upgrades throughout

18. 2024-01-11
    status Option Pending 82-char remark

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bedroom condo with open concept recently remodeled upgrades throughout

19. 2024-01-07
    price $139,999 82-char remark

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bedroom condo with open concept recently remodeled upgrades throughout

20. 2023-11-24
    listed $145,000 Active 82-char remark

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bedroom condo with open concept recently remodeled upgrades throughout

21. 2023-11-03
    soldstatus
22. 2022-10-18
    soldstatus
23. 2022-10-14
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (871 chars)

    Welcome home to your gated community surrounded by mature pine trees. Your second story condominium is situated in the back corner with access through your garage, or front door which has a peaceful wooded view. Upon entering either door you are welcomed by vaulted ceilings and natural light. A massive living area is open to the kitchen and breakfast bar, perfect for spending time with others. Enjoy a natural wood burning fireplace on the cooler days. Just down the hallway is your renovated full bath and bedroom. Take a trip upstairs to find the second bedroom, walk in closet and renovated half bath that could easily be converted into a full bath. This home has a lot to offer tucked away in this serene wooded area but so close to all of the conveniences of the city. Just minutes from I-45. The community offers a pool & clubhouse for residents enjoyment.

24. 2022-10-05
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (871 chars)

    Welcome home to your gated community surrounded by mature pine trees. Your second story condominium is situated in the back corner with access through your garage, or front door which has a peaceful wooded view. Upon entering either door you are welcomed by vaulted ceilings and natural light. A massive living area is open to the kitchen and breakfast bar, perfect for spending time with others. Enjoy a natural wood burning fireplace on the cooler days. Just down the hallway is your renovated full bath and bedroom. Take a trip upstairs to find the second bedroom, walk in closet and renovated half bath that could easily be converted into a full bath. This home has a lot to offer tucked away in this serene wooded area but so close to all of the conveniences of the city. Just minutes from I-45. The community offers a pool & clubhouse for residents enjoyment.

25. 2022-09-29
    status Option Pending

    Show marketing remark (871 chars)

    Welcome home to your gated community surrounded by mature pine trees. Your second story condominium is situated in the back corner with access through your garage, or front door which has a peaceful wooded view. Upon entering either door you are welcomed by vaulted ceilings and natural light. A massive living area is open to the kitchen and breakfast bar, perfect for spending time with others. Enjoy a natural wood burning fireplace on the cooler days. Just down the hallway is your renovated full bath and bedroom. Take a trip upstairs to find the second bedroom, walk in closet and renovated half bath that could easily be converted into a full bath. This home has a lot to offer tucked away in this serene wooded area but so close to all of the conveniences of the city. Just minutes from I-45. The community offers a pool & clubhouse for residents enjoyment.

26. 2022-09-25
    price $115,000

    Show marketing remark (871 chars)

    Welcome home to your gated community surrounded by mature pine trees. Your second story condominium is situated in the back corner with access through your garage, or front door which has a peaceful wooded view. Upon entering either door you are welcomed by vaulted ceilings and natural light. A massive living area is open to the kitchen and breakfast bar, perfect for spending time with others. Enjoy a natural wood burning fireplace on the cooler days. Just down the hallway is your renovated full bath and bedroom. Take a trip upstairs to find the second bedroom, walk in closet and renovated half bath that could easily be converted into a full bath. This home has a lot to offer tucked away in this serene wooded area but so close to all of the conveniences of the city. Just minutes from I-45. The community offers a pool & clubhouse for residents enjoyment.

27. 2022-09-15
    listed $120,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (871 chars)

    Welcome home to your gated community surrounded by mature pine trees. Your second story condominium is situated in the back corner with access through your garage, or front door which has a peaceful wooded view. Upon entering either door you are welcomed by vaulted ceilings and natural light. A massive living area is open to the kitchen and breakfast bar, perfect for spending time with others. Enjoy a natural wood burning fireplace on the cooler days. Just down the hallway is your renovated full bath and bedroom. Take a trip upstairs to find the second bedroom, walk in closet and renovated half bath that could easily be converted into a full bath. This home has a lot to offer tucked away in this serene wooded area but so close to all of the conveniences of the city. Just minutes from I-45. The community offers a pool & clubhouse for residents enjoyment.

28. 2021-10-19
    soldstatus
29. 1999-06-04
    soldstatus
30. 1990-10-01
    soldstatus $41,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,518 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,518 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$2,518
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,186
• − Management: −$1,186
• − HOA: −$4,812
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable loss: −$1,637
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$393
• After-tax cash flow: $-322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,110
• Household income: $50,903
• Rent vs Own: 70.7% rent · 29.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3603.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 16% White 12% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 25% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Current HPI: 249.3582
• Rent YoY: ▼ -7.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+82.9% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $89,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-01-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-01-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-01-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-01-07 Price Changed $139,999 HARMLS
• 2023-11-24 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-10-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-10-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-10-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-09-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-09-25 Price Changed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-15 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2021-10-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-06-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,518 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.