222 Cove Mountain Ln · Buchanan, VA 24066

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Manufactured public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2005 2.06 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic rural location with seasonal views of the James River. This home is very roomy and features large rear deck and a huge, fully enclosed front porch. Located just a couple minutes outside the town of Buchanan. Daytime showings only, please. Prospective buyers are asked not try to see the house during night time hours out of respect to the neighbors.

Key facts

• Seasonal views
• Large rear deck
• 2.06 acre lot

Tags

• SEASONAL VIEWS
• LARGE REAR DECK
• FULLY ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#244 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Botetourt County Public School District (rural): math 76% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #6 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Buchanan Elementary (math 72% / reading 77%, grade A, #220 of 1,108 statewide, top 22%, 311 students, 47% FRL); Central Academy Middle (math 77% / reading 83%, grade A+, #24 of 342 statewide, top 8%, 369 students, 42% FRL); James River High (math 98% / reading 87%, grade A+, #3 of 319 statewide, top 1%, 460 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 40% FRL vs 19% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 116 units permitted in Botetourt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Botetourt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.47%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-11,353
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,766
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24066

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,448 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,285/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,223

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $257	-5% $217	+0% $178	+5% $138	+10% $98
Rent	-10% $63	-5% $120	+0% $178	+5% $235	+10% $292
Rate	-1.0pp $248	-0.5pp $213	base $178	+0.5pp $141	+1.0pp $104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $140,000 Pending 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $140,000 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-04-03
    status Pending 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Fantastic rural location with seasonal views of the James River. This home is very roomy and features large rear deck and a huge, fully enclosed front porch. Located just a couple minutes outside the town of Buchanan. Daytime showings only, please. Prospective buyers are asked not try to see the house during night time hours out of respect to the neighbors.

18. 2026-04-03
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Fantastic rural location with seasonal views of the James River. This home is very roomy and features large rear deck and a huge, fully enclosed front porch. Located just a couple minutes outside the town of Buchanan. Daytime showings only, please. Prospective buyers are asked not try to see the house during night time hours out of respect to the neighbors.

19. 2026-03-06
    listed $140,000 Active 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Fantastic rural location with seasonal views of the James River. This home is very roomy and features large rear deck and a huge, fully enclosed front porch. Located just a couple minutes outside the town of Buchanan. Daytime showings only, please. Prospective buyers are asked not try to see the house during night time hours out of respect to the neighbors.

20. 2026-03-06
    listed $140,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Fantastic rural location with seasonal views of the James River. This home is very roomy and features large rear deck and a huge, fully enclosed front porch. Located just a couple minutes outside the town of Buchanan. Daytime showings only, please. Prospective buyers are asked not try to see the house during night time hours out of respect to the neighbors.

21. 2026-03-04
    soldstatus $128,697
22. 2026-01-08
    historical
23. 2025-12-09
    soldstatus $128,697
24. 2025-11-25
    listed $145,000 Active
25. 2025-11-25
    listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,285 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,285 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,285
• − Insurance: −$1,498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,390
• − Management: −$1,390
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$105
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$25
• After-tax cash flow: $2,157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Botetourt County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100420
• Math proficiency: 76% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 82% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $63,125
• Composite: 68.07/100
• National rank: #355
• State rank: #6 of 131 in VA

Livability — Buchanan

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #8227

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,234
• Population (ZIP): 5,234

Population outlook (Botetourt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,273 people
• By 2030: 34,457 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 34,051 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 32,841 · -4.2%
• By 2075: 30,720 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 26,395 · -23.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Botetourt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.2pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+47.6 2012: R+38.6 2008: R+33.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.35%
• Current HPI: 155.1053
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-04-03 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-03-06 Listed $140,000 MLSRV
• 2026-03-06 Listed $140,000 LMLS
• 2026-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $128,697 Public Records
• 2026-01-08 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2025-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $128,697 Public Records
• 2025-11-25 Listed $145,000 MLSRV
• 2025-11-25 Listed $145,000 LMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,285 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.