2126 Smithfield Cir S · Lakeland, FL 33801

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1963 8,133 sqft lot ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming and opportunity-filled home in the heart of Lakeland—perfectly positioned on a desirable corner lot that offers added space, privacy, and curb appeal. Step inside to a spacious living room filled with natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere ideal for relaxing or entertaining. This home features 2 comfortable bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, offering a functional layout with great potential to make it your own. Additional highlights include a covered 1-car carport, providing convenience and protection from the elements, along with a layout that’s perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors. With its prime location, corner lot ad

Key facts

• 8,133 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1963

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Lot about 0.19 acre (0 to less than 1/4); Building area total 1,524 square feet; Living area 1,008 square feet
• HOA & community: No association fees; No community features listed

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single Family Residence; One story; Faces south; Residential property
• Construction: Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on RA-3 zoning
• Exterior features: Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features; French doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($579/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crystal Lake Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #2,121 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 409 students, 60% FRL); Crystal Lake Middle School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #497 of 571 statewide, top 88%, 949 students, 71% FRL); Lakeland Senior High School (math 29% / reading 51%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 2,043 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 256 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,167 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.04%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-32,457
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-37,267
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33801

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,692 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,940/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,631

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $161	-5% $105	+0% $48	+5% $-8	+10% $-64
Rent	-10% $-85	-5% $-19	+0% $48	+5% $115	+10% $182
Rate	-1.0pp $148	-0.5pp $99	base $48	+0.5pp $-3	+1.0pp $-56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1885 N Crystal Lake Dr Apt 7 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,395	$1.55	25d	1	0.37mi
1969 Crystal Grove Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	576	$1,415	$2.46	5d	8	0.38mi
2025 Sylvester Rd Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1099	$1,850	$1.68	25d	2	0.40mi
1233 Honeytree Ln E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1355	$2,250	$1.66	5d	1	0.44mi
2402 Kiwanis Ave Unit 1258725P Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	1194	$3,262	$2.73	16d	1	0.45mi
2025 Sylvester Rd Unit N109 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1099	$1,750	$1.59	5d	1	0.46mi
1922 Crystal Grove Dr #1922 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,547	$1.53	25d	1	0.46mi
2524 Kiwanis Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.5	1468	$1,670	$1.14	13d	1	0.58mi
1836 N Crystal Lake Dr #112 Lakeland, FL	3.0	3.0	1482	$2,000	$1.35	25d	1	0.60mi
1836 N Crystal Lake Dr #5 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1482	$1,695	$1.14	25d	1	0.60mi
1836 N Crystal Lake Dr Unit 3 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	1158	$1,495	$1.29	16d	1	0.61mi
2020 E Edgewood Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,395	$1.16	5d	1	0.64mi
2023 Tennyson St Unit 2025 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	884	$1,095	$1.24	25d	1	0.82mi
1920 E Edgewood Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	831	$1,388	$1.67	5d	2	0.85mi
1108 Bartow Rd Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	797	$1,395	$1.75	5d	2	0.94mi
2830 Skyview Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,175	$1.38	25d	1	1.02mi
2839 8 Iron Dr Unit 2841 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,397	$1.55	25d	1	1.02mi
1104 Bartow Rd Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	760	$1,225	$1.61	25d	1	1.03mi
510 Longfellow Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,825	$1.39	5d	1	1.07mi
1505 Goodyear Ave Unit 17 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$950	$1.20	25d	1	1.08mi
2929 Nine Iron Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$875	$1.03	5d	1	1.09mi
3021 Balfour Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,275	$1.56	5d	1	1.12mi
2184 Colonial Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1123	$1,645	$1.46	25d	1	1.13mi
1509 Phyllis St Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,660	$1.56	16d	1	1.15mi
1803 Venus St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1259	$1,645	$1.31	5d	1	1.15mi
350 Bonnyview Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,600	$1.25	25d	1	1.35mi
3061 Crystal Hills Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	720	$1,400	$1.94	25d	1	1.38mi
2919 Maine Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,275	$1.12	16d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-14
   price $199,000
3. 2026-04-30
   price $210,000
4. 2026-04-16
   price $216,000
5. 2026-04-08
   listed $220,000 Active
6. 2026-03-25
   soldstatus $210,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,940 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,940 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,940
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,624
• − Management: −$1,624
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,819
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$677
• After-tax cash flow: $1,256/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,394
• Household income: $53,061
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.91%
• Current HPI: 373.7159
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $216,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Listed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $210,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+30.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,940 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.