9862 Glen Brook Ln · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$310,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,410 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 2021 4,961 sqft lot $129/sqft · at area comps Est $324k · at est. $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Cash flow +3.2/30.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your next home in the heart of Magnolia! This nearly new residence has been meticulously maintained and is move-in ready just in time for the holidays. Step inside to find an open, spacious floor plan with stylish finishes, abundant storage, and natural light throughout. The kitchen is a chef’s delight with a large gas range, full pantry, undercabinet lighting, and plenty of counter space for gatherings. The first-floor primary suite offers comfort and privacy, while upstairs you’ll find three roomy bedrooms, a full bath, and a generous game room/flex space for work or play. Outside, enjoy a covered patio and backyard ready for entertaining or relaxing evenings. With highly rated Magnolia ISD schools, a low HOA, and a low tax rate, this home represents outstanding value in one of Houston’s fastest-growing suburbs. Magnolia continues to expand with new shopping, dining, and conveniences nearby—making this property not just a home, but a smart investment in your future.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Full pantry
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE GAS RANGE
• FULL PANTRY
• UNDERCABINET LIGHTING
• COVERED PATIO
• LOW HOA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-973 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (30.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (28.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1621 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,865 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.45%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,570
• List price: $310,000
• Delta: -4.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10023 Rose Mallow Ln	0.08mi	4/3.5	2,593 (+8%)	7mo	$388,000	$150	76
27313 Dobbin Huffsmith Rd	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,381 (-1%)	7mo	$400,000	$168	70
10220 Badger Run Ln	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,397 (-0%)	6mo	$316,845	$132	70
9910 Caddo Trl	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,533 (+5%)	2mo	$525,000	$207	67
10253 Badger Run Ln	0.54mi	4/3.5	2,397 (-0%)	8mo	$320,985	$134	65
27318 Axis Deer Trl	0.61mi	4/3.5	2,470 (+2%)	0mo	$329,990	$134	65
27274 Axis Deer Trl	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,409 (-0%)	3mo	$352,495	$146	64
27290 Axis Deer Trl	0.65mi	4/3.5	2,470 (+2%)	8mo	$335,684	$136	57
10280 Badger Run Ln	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,173 (-10%)	7mo	$305,510	$141	49
27237 Crevalle Jack Ln	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,100 (-13%)	2mo	$275,000	$131	46
27215 Mockingbird Terrace Ln	0.48mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,738 (+14%)	8mo	$339,970	$124	41
10236 Badger Run Ln	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,061 (-14%)	6mo	$289,990	$141	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $101,460
• Equity at exit: $279,273

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.89×
• Total profit: $337,722
• Equity at exit: $602,262

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1621
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,214 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$904 /mo · $10,843/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-973

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,445

Max offer price $216,865

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-797	-5% $-885	+0% $-973	+5% $-1,060	+10% $-1,148
Rent	-10% $-1,148	-5% $-1,060	+0% $-973	+5% $-885	+10% $-798
Rate	-1.0pp $-817	-0.5pp $-894	base $-973	+0.5pp $-1,053	+1.0pp $-1,135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9829 Glen Brook Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1637	$1,999	$1.22	3d	1	0.08mi
28603 Hidden Lk W Magnolia, TX	5.0	2.5	2478	$2,446	$0.99	25d	1	1.22mi
28618 Hidden Cove Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2430	$2,046	$0.84	13d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $310,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $310,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $310,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $310,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $310,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $310,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $313,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $313,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $313,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $313,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $313,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $313,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $313,489 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $313,489 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    listed $313,489 Active 1017-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

    Welcome to your next home in the heart of Magnolia! This nearly new residence has been meticulously maintained and is move-in ready just in time for the holidays. Step inside to find an open, spacious floor plan with stylish finishes, abundant storage, and natural light throughout. The kitchen is a chef’s delight with a large gas range, full pantry, undercabinet lighting, and plenty of counter space for gatherings. The first-floor primary suite offers comfort and privacy, while upstairs you’ll find three roomy bedrooms, a full bath, and a generous game room/flex space for work or play. Outside, enjoy a covered patio and backyard ready for entertaining or relaxing evenings. With highly rated Magnolia ISD schools, a low HOA, and a low tax rate, this home represents outstanding value in one of Houston’s fastest-growing suburbs. Magnolia continues to expand with new shopping, dining, and conveniences nearby—making this property not just a home, but a smart investment in your future.

16. 2026-02-04
    historical
17. 2026-01-05
    price $314,750
18. 2025-12-08
    price $314,900
19. 2025-11-12
    price $315,000
20. 2025-11-12
    price $319,990
21. 2025-09-24
    listed $320,000 Active
22. 2021-08-20
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2021-05-04
    status Pending, Continue to Show
24. 2021-04-29
    listed $281,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,843 · $904/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,843 · $904/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,564
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$10,843
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,125
• − Management: −$2,125
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$17,219
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,133
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,540/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $313,489 HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $314,750 HARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $314,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $319,990 HARMLS
• 2025-09-24 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2021-08-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-04-29 Listed $281,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+86.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,843 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.