16 Roberts Dr · Mayflower, AR 72106

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,770 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1974 0.79 ac lot Est $218k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large Lake Conway Property located in nice quiet neighborhood. 1770 sqft home on 3.5 lots in Roberts Subdivision with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, screened in porch, separate workshop with boat house and dock. New home generator, lake irrigation system, fully fenced in back yard.

Key facts

• Tranquil cove
• Generac power backup
• Boathouse

Tags

• TRANQUIL COVE
• TREE-COVERED GROUNDS
• COVERED PATIO
• BOATHOUSE
• DEDICATED STORAGE SHOP
• GENERAC POWER BACKUP

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing options may include VA, FHA, conventional, or Rural Development loans
• HOA & community: Association/Condo fee: see remarks

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car parking with automatic door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Municipal electric service (Entergy); Insulated windows; Insulated doors
• Home design: Wood exterior
• Construction: Metal roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Screened porch; Fully fenced yard; Shop; Boat dock; Lakefront with cove and lake view; Boat house with 2 stalls; Paved road access; Level, wooded lot in a subdivision; Flood insurance required

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator (stays)
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Washer connection; Electric dryer connection; Sheetrock and paneling walls/ceilings; Den/Family room
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Electric dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-233/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (2.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.8% in Mayflower — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#390 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Conway School District (urban): math 43% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #36 of 238 in AR (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (9.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,103 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.91%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,710
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 S Deer	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,831 (+3%)	4mo	$55,000	$30	81
10 N Deer Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,904 (+8%)	20mo	$235,000	$123	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $81,868
• Equity at exit: $139,614

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.39×
• Total profit: $241,406
• Equity at exit: $296,482

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72106

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,716 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $521/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $156,463

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $159,900 Under Contract 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $159,900 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Price Change 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Price Change 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Price Change 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricestatusdays on market $159,900 Price Change 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $189,900
17. 2026-04-22
    listed $214,900 New Listing
18. 2016-09-08
    soldstatus $110,000 Sold 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Large Lake Conway Property located in nice quiet neighborhood. 1770 sqft home on 3.5 lots in Roberts Subdivision with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, screened in porch, separate workshop with boat house and dock. New home generator, lake irrigation system, fully fenced in back yard.

19. 2016-08-11
    soldstatus $110,000
20. 2016-06-06
    status Under Contract 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Large Lake Conway Property located in nice quiet neighborhood. 1770 sqft home on 3.5 lots in Roberts Subdivision with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, screened in porch, separate workshop with boat house and dock. New home generator, lake irrigation system, fully fenced in back yard.

21. 2016-05-05
    price $128,000 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Large Lake Conway Property located in nice quiet neighborhood. 1770 sqft home on 3.5 lots in Roberts Subdivision with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, screened in porch, separate workshop with boat house and dock. New home generator, lake irrigation system, fully fenced in back yard.

22. 2016-04-13
    price $140,000 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Large Lake Conway Property located in nice quiet neighborhood. 1770 sqft home on 3.5 lots in Roberts Subdivision with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, screened in porch, separate workshop with boat house and dock. New home generator, lake irrigation system, fully fenced in back yard.

23. 2016-03-28
    status Back on Market 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Large Lake Conway Property located in nice quiet neighborhood. 1770 sqft home on 3.5 lots in Roberts Subdivision with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, screened in porch, separate workshop with boat house and dock. New home generator, lake irrigation system, fully fenced in back yard.

24. 2016-03-12
    status Under Contract 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Large Lake Conway Property located in nice quiet neighborhood. 1770 sqft home on 3.5 lots in Roberts Subdivision with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, screened in porch, separate workshop with boat house and dock. New home generator, lake irrigation system, fully fenced in back yard.

25. 2016-01-25
    status Back on Market 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Large Lake Conway Property located in nice quiet neighborhood. 1770 sqft home on 3.5 lots in Roberts Subdivision with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, screened in porch, separate workshop with boat house and dock. New home generator, lake irrigation system, fully fenced in back yard.

26. 2016-01-23
    historical 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Large Lake Conway Property located in nice quiet neighborhood. 1770 sqft home on 3.5 lots in Roberts Subdivision with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, screened in porch, separate workshop with boat house and dock. New home generator, lake irrigation system, fully fenced in back yard.

27. 2015-10-02
    price $150,000 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Large Lake Conway Property located in nice quiet neighborhood. 1770 sqft home on 3.5 lots in Roberts Subdivision with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, screened in porch, separate workshop with boat house and dock. New home generator, lake irrigation system, fully fenced in back yard.

28. 2015-07-22
    listed $160,000 New Listing 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Large Lake Conway Property located in nice quiet neighborhood. 1770 sqft home on 3.5 lots in Roberts Subdivision with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, screened in porch, separate workshop with boat house and dock. New home generator, lake irrigation system, fully fenced in back yard.

29. 2004-06-28
    soldstatus $112,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $521 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,023 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$502/yr (+$42/mo · 96.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 64% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,592
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$521
• − Insurance: −$5,918
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,647
• − Management: −$1,647
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$2,750
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$660
• After-tax cash flow: $427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conway School District
• NCES district ID: 0504590
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 38.27/100
• National rank: #4236
• State rank: #36 of 238 in AR

Livability — Mayflower

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #390
• US rank: #22893

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mayflower, AR
• Population (ZIP): 5,719

Population outlook (Faulkner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,985 people
• By 2030: 148,264 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 166,010 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 183,362 · +31.9%
• By 2075: 224,593 · +61.6%
• By 2100: 250,603 · +80.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Faulkner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.3) · D 32.6% · R 64.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.3pp · 2024: -32.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.3 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+25.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.62%
• Current HPI: 236.6197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+69.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $189,900 CARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $214,900 CARMLS
• 2016-09-08 Sold (MLS) $110,000 CARMLS
• 2016-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2016-06-06 Pending — CARMLS
• 2016-05-05 Price Changed $128,000 CARMLS
• 2016-04-13 Price Changed $140,000 CARMLS
• 2016-03-28 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2016-03-12 Pending — CARMLS
• 2016-01-25 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2016-01-23 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2015-10-02 Price Changed $150,000 CARMLS
• 2015-07-22 Listed $160,000 CARMLS
• 2004-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $521 · -11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.