512 Camellia Ave · Orange, TX 77630

$99,950

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,707 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1958 8,407 sqft lot $59/sqft · 24% below area Est $132k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment Opportunity: Charming Single-Story Home This single-story home presents a remarkable investment opportunity for the right buyer. The property features three bedrooms, a spacious living room, and a cozy family room with a wood-burning fireplace, perfect for chilly winter evenings. In addition, a rear shed provides convenient storage options for your belongings. Although the home needs some TLC, it offers a unique chance for a creative homeowner to add their own personal touch or for an investor seeking their next income-producing property. The established community and convenient location make this residence both attractive and valuable, offering the possibility to transform it into a hidden gem or diamond in the rough. Unlock the potential of this property by scheduling a tour with your representative today. Explore the possibilities and envision how you can make this home your own or turn it into a successful investment. Virtual photos included for illustration only.

Key facts

• Convenient location
• Single-story home
• Rear shed

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• REAR SHED
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.9% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#286 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools D-.
• West Orange-Cove CISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #784 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($692 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,953 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.37%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,167
• List price: $99,950
• Delta: -24.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
545 Gardenia Ave	0.08mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,750 (+2%)	9mo	$143,900	$82	80
638 Camellia Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,670 (-2%)	9mo	$134,000	$80	79
500 Gardenia Ave	0.13mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,790 (+5%)	12mo	$99,995	$56	69
313 Camellia Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-13%)	4mo	$149,900	$101	64
101 Azalea Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,519 (-11%)	9mo	$115,000	$76	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.01% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $22,818
• Equity at exit: $34,173

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.78×
• Total profit: $77,837
• Equity at exit: $45,453

Cash invested: $27,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77630

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,395 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$271 /mo · $3,255/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,060

Max offer price $99,950

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,988
• Closing costs: $2,998
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 Dahlia St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1149	$1,300	$1.13	14d	1	0.21mi
403 Bluebonnet Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1196	$1,300	$1.09	44d	1	0.23mi
306 Bridal Wreath Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1529	$1,195	$0.78	21d	1	0.26mi
302 Bridal Wreath Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1182	$1,195	$1.01	44d	1	0.29mi
3615 Ridgemont Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1266	$1,275	$1.01	44d	1	0.30mi
101 Azalea Ave Unit A Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	44d	1	0.38mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 401 Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,725	$1.01	21d	1	0.39mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 315TWNHME Orange, TX	2.0	1.5	1216	$1,040	$0.86	21d	1	0.39mi
316 Old Timers Rd Unit 316 Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,595	$1.33	44d	1	0.56mi
3000 MacArthur Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	791	$1,330	$1.68	13d	12	0.61mi
7b Concord St Orange, TX	2.0	1.5	1206	$1,450	$1.20	14d	1	0.61mi
1120 28th St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,500	$1.15	44d	1	0.76mi
205 Gloria St West Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,300	$1.06	44d	1	0.95mi
3345 W Park Ave Orange, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	999	$1,182	$1.18	13d	7	0.95mi
2602 Tanglewood St West Orange, TX	4.0	2.0	1306	$1,250	$0.96	14d	1	0.95mi
309 Quincy St West Orange, TX	3.0	1.5	1113	$1,200	$1.08	14d	1	1.00mi
210 Florence St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,425	$1.34	44d	1	1.05mi
206 Florence St Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1216	$1,425	$1.17	44d	1	1.06mi
1543 Alamo St West Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1170	$1,200	$1.03	14d	1	1.16mi
2801 W Sunset Dr Orange, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1113	$1,400	$1.26	13d	27	1.32mi
1010 Highway 87 S Orange, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,425	$1.62	14d	13	1.35mi
406 Dayton St West Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,200	$0.89	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,950 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,950 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,950 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,950 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,950 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,950 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,950 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,950 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,950 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,950 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,950 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,950 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,950 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,950 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,950 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-04-06
    listed $99,950 Active 995-char remark

    Show marketing remark (995 chars)

    Investment Opportunity: Charming Single-Story Home This single-story home presents a remarkable investment opportunity for the right buyer. The property features three bedrooms, a spacious living room, and a cozy family room with a wood-burning fireplace, perfect for chilly winter evenings. In addition, a rear shed provides convenient storage options for your belongings. Although the home needs some TLC, it offers a unique chance for a creative homeowner to add their own personal touch or for an investor seeking their next income-producing property. The established community and convenient location make this residence both attractive and valuable, offering the possibility to transform it into a hidden gem or diamond in the rough. Unlock the potential of this property by scheduling a tour with your representative today. Explore the possibilities and envision how you can make this home your own or turn it into a successful investment. Virtual photos included for illustration only.

17. 2026-02-10
    historical
18. 2026-01-05
    listed $125,000 Active
19. 2025-12-31
    historical
20. 2025-10-02
    listed $130,000 Active
21. 2023-01-10
    historical
22. 2022-11-03
    listed $134,000 Active
23. 2018-05-15
    soldstatus
24. 2018-04-20
    listed $54,900
25. 2008-04-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,255 · $271/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,255 · $271/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,741
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,599
• − Property taxes: −$3,255
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,339
• − Management: −$1,339
• − Depreciation: −$2,908
• Taxable income: $1,801
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$432
• After-tax cash flow: $2,749/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Orange-Cove CISD
• NCES district ID: 4845090
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,329
• Composite: 15.86/100
• National rank: #9260
• State rank: #784 of 826 in TX

Livability — Orange

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #6456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orange, TX
• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• City population: 22,976
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,983
• Household income: $64,373
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Current HPI: 264.14
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+82.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $99,950 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-11-03 Listed $134,000 HARMLS
• 2018-05-15 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2018-04-20 Listed $54,900 BBOR
• 2008-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,255 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.