1516 Commercial Pl · Crystal Springs, FL 33540

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 696 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1985 0.41 ac lot Est $115k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Newly Remodeled 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Mobile Home on Spacious Corner Lot Move-in ready and beautifully updated! This newly remodeled 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home sits on a generous . 41-acre corner lot, offering plenty of space and privacy. The home features fresh interior and exterior paint, creating a clean, modern look throughout. Both bathrooms have been completely updated, and durable vinyl flooring runs throughout the home for easy maintenance and a seamless finish. Enjoy a light, bright interior with neutral colors that complement any décor style. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an affordable investment

Key facts

• Spacious corner lot
• Updated bathrooms
• 0.41 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS CORNER LOT
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• DURABLE VINYL FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: AR; Total lot size about 0.41 acres (approx. 132 x 136); Living area reported as 696 square feet
• HOA & community: No association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Private water source; Septic tank; Cable available; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Has additional parcel(s)
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Located in county; Road surfaces include dirt, other, and paved

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating: Other; Cooling: Mini-split unit(s)
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combined; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; 3 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $527 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.8% in Crystal Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#687 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 48% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $115k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.65%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $114,840
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1516 Commercial Pl	0.00mi	2/2.0	696 (0%)	1mo	$115,000	$165	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $14,915
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $56,099
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33540

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,558 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $635/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $527

Break-even live

Break-even rent $891

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   price $115,000
3. 2026-04-23
   price $130,000
4. 2026-04-15
   price $137,000
5. 2026-04-13
   status Active
6. 2026-04-13
   price $145,000
7. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
8. 2026-03-03
   listed $150,000 Active
9. 2017-07-13
   soldstatus $45,000
10. 2008-12-03
    soldstatus $65,100
11. 2007-11-05
    listed $129,500
12. 2005-04-15
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $635 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $954 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$320/yr (+$27/mo · 50.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$635
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,496
• − Management: −$1,496
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $4,712
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,131
• After-tax cash flow: $5,196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal Springs

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #687
• US rank: #14320

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crystal Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,098

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.57%
• Current HPI: 370.8747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+76.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $137,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2008-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $65,100 Public Records
• 2007-11-05 Listed $129,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $635 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.