The Birdie Plan · Tioga, TX 76271

$323,550

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,438 sqft · SingleFamily · 1004 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Birdie is a one-story design with three-beds and two-baths. Boasting a beautiful, open, and spacious floor plan Including a master suite with a walk-in closet, a large two-car garage and wonderful back patio. This home offers a host of options to bring to life the home you have always wanted. - Three different elevations for this home - Optional fireplace - Optional Extended covered back patio. * Images are representative, and we reserve the right, without notification, to adjust prices, specifications, and elevations.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 1003 days

🏗️ New construction. The $323,550 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $346,563.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $324k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.9% in Tioga — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#656 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Tioga ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #226 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1004 days — a 12% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,244 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1004 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.49%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $346,563
• List price: $323,550
• Delta: -6.64%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
225 Faith Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,467 (+2%)	16mo	$306,500	$209	80
303 Swaha Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+6%)	16mo	$319,000	$210	75
301 Swaha Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+6%)	15mo	$319,000	$210	74
221 Faith Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,609 (+12%)	2mo	$315,000	$196	74
404 N Florence St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+7%)	2mo	$342,500	$223	72
606 Kyle Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+6%)	16mo	$359,000	$236	70
718 Arapaho Dr	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,395 (-3%)	3mo	$375,000	$269	68
611 Kyle Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+13%)	12mo	$355,000	$219	64
401 Cutler St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,476 (+3%)	10mo	$229,000	$155	64
402 E Main St	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,529 (+6%)	3mo	$299,999	$196	59
108 S Florence St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-7%)	0mo	$197,000	$148	56
1008 N Main St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+12%)	9mo	$349,900	$218	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $108,022
• Equity at exit: $250,873

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $330,636
• Equity at exit: $486,581

Cash invested: $97,038 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 15 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.5 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $339,000 ($225/sqft)
• Median days on market: 181 d
• This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76271

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,572 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,817
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$433 /mo · $5,198/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,032

Max offer price $294,067

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-123	-5% $-243	+0% $-363	+5% $-483	+10% $-602
Rent	-10% $-566	-5% $-464	+0% $-363	+5% $-261	+10% $-160
Rate	-1.0pp $-188	-0.5pp $-275	base $-363	+0.5pp $-453	+1.0pp $-544

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,641
• Closing costs: $10,397
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
618 Kyle Dr Tioga, TX	4.0	2.0	1741	$2,700	$1.55	93d	1	0.05mi
402 E Hinton St Tioga, TX	2.0	2.0	992	$1,385	$1.40	70d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $323,550 Active 1004 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $323,550 Active 1003 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $323,550 Active 1002 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $323,550 Active 1001 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $323,550 Active 1000 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $323,550 Active 999 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $323,550 Active 996 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $323,550 Active 994 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $323,550 Active 992 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $323,550 Active 991 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $323,550 Active 989 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $323,550 Active 988 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $323,550 Active 987 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $323,550 Active 986 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $323,550 Active 985 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $323,550 Active 983 DOM
17. 2026-07-17
    days on market $323,550 Active 982 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $323,550 Active 979 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $323,550 Active 978 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $323,550 Active 977 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $323,550 Active 976 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $323,550 Active 975 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $323,550 Active 974 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $323,550 Active 972 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $323,550 Active 971 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $323,550 Active 970 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $323,550 Active 969 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $323,550 Active 968 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $323,550 Active 967 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $323,550 Active 966 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $323,550 Active 965 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $323,550 Active 964 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $323,550 Active 963 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $323,550 Active 962 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $323,550 Active 961 DOM
36. 2026-06-23
    days on market $323,550 Active 958 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $323,550 Active 957 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $323,550 Active 956 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $323,550 Active 955 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $323,550 Active 953 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $323,550 Active 952 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $323,550 Active 951 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $323,550 Active 950 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $323,550 Active 949 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $323,550 Active 948 DOM
46. 2026-06-12
    days on market $323,550 Active 947 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $323,550 Active 944 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $323,550 Active 943 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $323,550 Active 942 DOM
50. 2026-06-05
    days on market $323,550 Active 940 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,869
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,413
• − Property taxes: −$5,198
• − Insurance: −$1,733
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,470
• − Management: −$2,470
• − Depreciation: −$10,082
• Taxable loss: −$10,496
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,519
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,834/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Fresh paint and minor repairs can improve the home's appearance and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce maintenance costs. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value and attract more buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and attractive exterior can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers/tenants. ↑

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tioga ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842870
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,096
• Composite: 40.38/100
• National rank: #3735
• State rank: #226 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Tioga

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #656
• US rank: #12339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tioga, TX
• County: Grayson · 134,540 people
• City population: 1,864
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,864
• Household income: $85,682
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.47%
• Current HPI: 297.1567
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2023-11-08 Listed $323,550 Zillow