3827 Beltingham Bend Way · Fulshear, TX 77441

$269,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,818 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 381 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 5,749 sqft lot $148/sqft · at area comps Est $298k · 10% under $104/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUGE PRICED REDUCTION. INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY. This stunning house offers a pristine living experience with spacious layout flooded with natural light. Open concept kitchen with many storage space, stain steel appliances and granite counter tops is any chef's dream kitchen. Situated close to the pool and various amenities, it boasts convenience and leisure at every turn. Complete with all appliances included, this home ensures effortless living in a safe and friendly neighborhood. Explore the many nearby walking trails and peaceful neighborhood.

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Many storage space
• Natural light

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• MANY STORAGE SPACE
• STAIN STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• CLOSE TO THE POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (9.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $269k).
• Recommended offer: $237k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.5% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1601 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 28d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 381 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $59k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 381 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.28%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,743
• List price: $269,000
• Delta: -9.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3526 Blueberry Thistle Ln	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,750 (-4%)	1mo	$324,990	$186	71
3531 Bonnie Heights St	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,748 (-4%)	1mo	$309,990	$177	69
31206 Carmelas Landing Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,042 (+12%)	0mo	$314,990	$154	65
3067 Liams Tower Ln	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,042 (+12%)	0mo	$314,990	$154	65
31266 Whistledown Ln	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,748 (-4%)	2mo	$309,990	$177	61
31714 Theodore Bend Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0	2,061 (+13%)	1mo	$304,990	$148	58
31727 Hallington Hill Ln	0.55mi	4/2.0	2,046 (+12%)	1mo	$295,000	$144	53
3515 Bonnie Heights St	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,042 (+12%)	2mo	$326,540	$160	50
3515 Bonnie Heights Street Ln	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,042 (+12%)	2mo	$326,540	$160	48
3523 Bonnie Heights St	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,031 (+12%)	1mo	$334,990	$165	48
3327 Blueberry Thistle Ln	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,042 (+12%)	2mo	$329,990	$162	47
3314 Bonnie Heights St	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,031 (+12%)	0mo	$331,990	$163	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-60,416
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-94,118
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 122 active · 45 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.3 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $313,990 ($172/sqft)
• Median days on market: 31 d
• This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -4.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1601
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,745 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$685 /mo · $8,216/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$104
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $-143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,926

Max offer price $243,757

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9	-5% $-67	+0% $-143	+5% $-219	+10% $-295
Rent	-10% $-360	-5% $-251	+0% $-143	+5% $-34	+10% $74
Rate	-1.0pp $-7	-0.5pp $-74	base $-143	+0.5pp $-213	+1.0pp $-284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31123 Brightwell Bnd Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,400	$1.00	62d	1	0.70mi
3714 Sloane Peak Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1713	$2,353	$1.37	0d	13	0.94mi
32311 Melbrooke Dr Brookshire, TX	3.0	2.5	2434	$2,295	$0.94	8d	1	0.95mi
5222 Wyatt James Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.5	2487	$3,250	$1.31	61d	1	1.29mi
32503 Midsummer Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.5	2342	$2,500	$1.07	28d	1	1.35mi
32511 Midsummer Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.5	2342	$2,500	$1.07	12d	1	1.36mi
30375 Centipede Grove Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,900	$1.21	93d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail $104/mo · $1,248/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $269,000 Active 381 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $269,000 Active 379 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $269,000 Active 378 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $269,000 Active 377 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $269,000 Active 376 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $269,000 Active 373 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $269,000 Active 371 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $269,000 Active 370 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $269,000 Active 368 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $269,000 Active 366 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $269,000 Active 365 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $269,000 Active 364 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $269,000 Active 363 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $269,000 Active 362 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $269,000 Active 360 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $269,000 Active 359 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $269,000 Active 358 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $269,000 Active 357 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $269,000 Active 356 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $269,000 Active 355 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $269,000 Active 354 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $269,000 Active 353 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $269,000 Active 352 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $269,000 Active 351 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $269,000 Active 349 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $269,000 Active 348 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $269,000 Active 347 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $269,000 Active 346 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $269,000 Active 345 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $269,000 Active 344 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $269,000 Active 343 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $269,000 Active 342 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $269,000 Active 341 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $269,000 Active 340 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $269,000 Active 339 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $269,000 Active 338 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $269,000 Active 336 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $269,000 Active 334 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $269,000 Active 333 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $269,000 Active 330 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $269,000 Active 329 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $269,000 Active 328 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $269,000 Active 327 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $269,000 Active 325 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $269,000 Active 321 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,000 Active 320 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,000 Active 319 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $269,000 Active 316 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,000 Active 315 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,000 Active 314 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,216 · $685/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,216 · $685/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$8,216
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,635
• − Management: −$2,635
• − HOA: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$6,033
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,448
• After-tax cash flow: $-267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,090–$27,270 screening

This single-family home offers a good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and is located in a desirable neighborhood with potential for value enhancement through minor improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by adding modern conveniences. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 63/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Huggins El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dean Leaman J H School B TX #206/1,662 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Foster H S B TX #141/1,632 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $299,500 HARMLS
• 2025-07-23 Listed $328,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-11 Listed $295,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,216 · -4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.