163 Half Moon Rd · McCord Bend, MO 65624

$94,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,812 sqft · Other · 66 Days on market

Built 1965 0.90 ac lot $52/sqft · 71% below area ↓ 12% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This inviting Cape Fair residence offers approximately 1,812 square feet of versatile living space, featuring two bedrooms and one well-appointed bathroom. The home includes a functional layout complemented by a one-car attached garage for convenient parking and storage. Outdoor living is made easy with a private deck, perfect for enjoying the peaceful surroundings near Table Rock Lake. Located in the Holiday Hill community, this property provides a comfortable and move-in-ready environment for any resident seeking a well-maintained home in Stone County.

Key facts

• Private deck
• Near table rock lake
• 0.9 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE DECK
• HOLIDAY HILL COMMUNITY
• NEAR TABLE ROCK LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $243 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 1.3% in McCord Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#875 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Reeds Spring R-IV (rural): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #182 of 324 in MO (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($656 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,206 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.99%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,123
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: -70.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $31,991
• Equity at exit: $48,085

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $86,109
• Equity at exit: $78,623

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65624

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,044 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $533/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $736

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $94,900 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $94,900 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $109,900 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $109,900 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,900 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,900 Active 46 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    price $109,900 561-char remark

    Show marketing remark (561 chars)

    This inviting Cape Fair residence offers approximately 1,812 square feet of versatile living space, featuring two bedrooms and one well-appointed bathroom. The home includes a functional layout complemented by a one-car attached garage for convenient parking and storage. Outdoor living is made easy with a private deck, perfect for enjoying the peaceful surroundings near Table Rock Lake. Located in the Holiday Hill community, this property provides a comfortable and move-in-ready environment for any resident seeking a well-maintained home in Stone County.

19. 2026-04-14
    listed $124,900 Active 561-char remark

    Show marketing remark (561 chars)

    This inviting Cape Fair residence offers approximately 1,812 square feet of versatile living space, featuring two bedrooms and one well-appointed bathroom. The home includes a functional layout complemented by a one-car attached garage for convenient parking and storage. Outdoor living is made easy with a private deck, perfect for enjoying the peaceful surroundings near Table Rock Lake. Located in the Holiday Hill community, this property provides a comfortable and move-in-ready environment for any resident seeking a well-maintained home in Stone County.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $533 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $921 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$387/yr (+$32/mo · 72.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$533
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,003
• − Management: −$1,003
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $1,442
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$346
• After-tax cash flow: $2,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Reeds Spring R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2926160
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,158
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5819
• State rank: #182 of 324 in MO

Livability — McCord Bend

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #875
• US rank: #25259

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,722

Population outlook (Stone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,147 people
• By 2030: 26,405 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 22,762 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 19,706 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 14,742 · -47.6%
• By 2100: 10,832 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Stone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+49.2 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.99%
• Current HPI: 209.4136
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $109,900 SOMO
• 2026-04-14 Listed $124,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $533 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.