17200 W Bell Rd · Surprise, AZ 85374

$155,500

1 bd · 0.5 ba · 586 sqft · SingleFamily · 98 Days on market

Built 1988 Fair condition $265/sqft · 24% below area Est $205k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two bedroom mobile home with large Arizona room. furnished. Large laundry / storage room. First bath is a full bath second bath is a full bath but only a shower no tub third bath is just a toilet room. Includes a golf cart. Roof has a 20-year new coating Happy Trails is a 55 plus community lots of fun entertaining things to do there. Check out there website for all the fun amenities that are included in your HOA fee. Lots of snowbirds reside here. If you're looking for more property the lots on either side are also for sale. Lot 614 is an empty landscaped RV lot. 612 is an covered RV lot with a workshop shed.

Key facts

• New plumbing
• Close to front gate
• New appliances

Tags

• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW APPLIANCES
• GREAT PATIO
• CLOSE TO FRONT GATE
• LOTS OF AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $156k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($544/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (8.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 399 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($142k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 40 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $156k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,505 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.25%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,178
• List price: $155,500
• Delta: -24.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17200 W Bell Rd #1006	0.41mi	1/1.0	640 (+9%)	16mo	$205,000	$320	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-26,257
• Equity at exit: $23,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-34,432
• Equity at exit: $13,445

Cash invested: $43,540 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85374

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 399
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,418 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$815
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,332/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,360

Max offer price $155,500

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,875
• Closing costs: $4,665
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17701 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,499	$1.67	2d	26	0.90mi
17785 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$1,380	$1.35	1d	43	1.03mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,500 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on marketlisting id $155,500 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $235,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $235,000 Active 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Two bedroom mobile home with large Arizona room. furnished. Large laundry / storage room. First bath is a full bath second bath is a full bath but only a shower no tub third bath is just a toilet room. Includes a golf cart. Roof has a 20-year new coating Happy Trails is a 55 plus community lots of fun entertaining things to do there. Check out there website for all the fun amenities that are included in your HOA fee. Lots of snowbirds reside here. If you're looking for more property the lots on either side are also for sale. Lot 614 is an empty landscaped RV lot. 612 is an covered RV lot with a workshop shed.

15. 2026-03-30
    historical
16. 2026-03-12
    listed $155,500 Active
17. 2026-02-01
    listed $209,000 Active
18. 2025-06-01
    historical
19. 2025-01-19
    listed $309,900 Active
20. 2024-09-23
    historical $1,500
21. 2024-09-05
    listed $1,500
22. 2024-08-23
    historical $1,650
23. 2024-07-24
    listed $1,650
24. 2024-05-01
    historical
25. 2024-03-07
    price $169,900
26. 2024-02-24
    price $179,900
27. 2024-02-07
    status Active
28. 2024-02-05
    price $189,000
29. 2024-02-01
    status Pending
30. 2024-02-01
    historical
31. 2024-01-30
    price $194,900
32. 2024-01-23
    price $124,000
33. 2023-12-16
    price $198,000
34. 2023-12-10
    listed $265,000 Active
35. 2023-11-08
    listed $135,000 Active
36. 2009-05-08
    historical
37. 2009-05-08
    historical
38. 2009-01-08
    historical
39. 2008-09-12
    historical
40. 2008-07-08
    listed $169,900
41. 2008-06-04
    soldstatus $100,000
42. 2008-04-22
    historical
43. 2008-04-08
    historical
44. 2008-03-26
    soldstatus $150,000
45. 2008-03-14
    listed $125,000
46. 2008-03-14
    listed $115,000
47. 2008-03-13
    listed $124,900
48. 2008-03-05
    soldstatus $163,500
49. 2008-03-04
    historical
50. 2008-02-20
    soldstatus $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,012
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,710
• − Property taxes: −$2,332
• − Insurance: −$778
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,361
• − Management: −$1,361
• − Depreciation: −$4,524
• Taxable loss: −$2,054
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$493
• After-tax cash flow: $1,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

A mobile home with average condition, requiring moderate repairs and updates to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — slight wear
• Minor landscaping — basic landscaping

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace linoleum countertops with quartz — improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both install new flooring — enhances overall appearance and functionality
• Both update bathrooms with modern fixtures — enhances functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · basic landscaping	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace linoleum countertops with quartz — improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both install new flooring — enhances overall appearance and functionality ↑
• Both update bathrooms with modern fixtures — enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,420
• Household income: $81,201
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1120.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.93%
• Current HPI: 254.7782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+186.6% since first listed

102 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $235,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-03-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $155,500 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-02-01 Listed $209,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-01-19 Listed $309,900 ARMLS
• 2024-09-23 Rental Removed $1,500 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-05 Listed for Rent $1,500 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-08-23 Rental Removed $1,650 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-07-24 Listed for Rent $1,650 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-05-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-03-07 Price Changed $169,900 ARMLS
• 2024-02-24 Price Changed $179,900 ARMLS
• 2024-02-07 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-02-05 Price Changed $189,000 ARMLS
• 2024-02-01 Pending — ARMLS
• 2024-02-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-01-30 Price Changed $194,900 ARMLS
• 2024-01-23 Price Changed $124,000 ARMLS
• 2023-12-16 Price Changed $198,000 ARMLS
• 2023-12-10 Listed $265,000 ARMLS
• 2023-11-08 Listed $135,000 ARMLS
• 2009-05-08 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2009-05-08 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2009-01-08 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-09-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-07-08 Listed $169,900 ARMLS
• 2008-06-04 Sold (MLS) $100,000 ARMLS
• 2008-04-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-04-08 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-03-26 Sold (MLS) $150,000 ARMLS
• 2008-03-14 Listed $125,000 ARMLS
• 2008-03-14 Listed $115,000 ARMLS
• 2008-03-13 Listed $124,900 ARMLS
• 2008-03-05 Sold (MLS) $163,500 ARMLS
• 2008-03-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-02-20 Sold (MLS) $115,000 ARMLS
• 2008-02-15 Listed $157,000 ARMLS
• 2008-01-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-01-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-01-26 Listed $169,000 ARMLS
• 2008-01-22 Listed $114,500 ARMLS
• 2007-12-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-11-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-11-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-10-05 Listed $139,000 ARMLS
• 2007-09-20 Listed $112,000 ARMLS
• 2007-07-21 Listed $129,000 ARMLS
• 2007-05-07 Listed $185,000 ARMLS
• 2007-05-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-01-22 Listed $139,000 ARMLS
• 2006-12-04 Listed $219,500 ARMLS
• 2006-12-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-11-06 Listed $265,000 ARMLS
• 2006-10-11 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-08-30 Listed $115,000 ARMLS
• 2006-01-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-11-20 Sold (MLS) $120,000 ARMLS
• 2005-11-06 Sold (MLS) $165,000 ARMLS
• 2005-10-15 Listed $120,000 ARMLS
• 2005-10-07 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-10-05 Listed $165,000 ARMLS
• 2005-08-02 Listed $135,000 ARMLS
• 2005-05-16 Sold (MLS) $70,000 ARMLS
• 2005-05-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-05-03 Listed $89,000 ARMLS
• 2004-12-10 Sold (MLS) $64,500 ARMLS
• 2004-12-01 Sold (MLS) $125,000 ARMLS
• 2004-11-27 Sold (MLS) $91,000 ARMLS
• 2004-11-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-11-05 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-11-02 Listed $66,000 ARMLS
• 2004-11-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-10-24 Listed $95,000 ARMLS
• 2004-10-16 Listed $129,000 ARMLS
• 2004-08-13 Sold (MLS) $75,000 ARMLS
• 2004-08-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-04-22 Listed $75,000 ARMLS
• 2004-04-20 Sold (MLS) $70,000 ARMLS
• 2004-03-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-03-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-02-25 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-02-24 Listed $70,000 ARMLS
• 2004-02-18 Sold (MLS) $65,000 ARMLS
• 2004-01-30 Listed $154,900 ARMLS
• 2004-01-26 Listed $90,000 ARMLS
• 2004-01-19 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2003-12-02 Sold (MLS) $95,000 ARMLS
• 2003-11-23 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2003-11-12 Listed $140,000 ARMLS
• 2003-10-31 Listed $100,000 ARMLS
• 2003-10-23 Listed $68,000 ARMLS
• 2003-08-01 Sold (MLS) $42,500 ARMLS
• 2003-07-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2003-06-11 Listed $45,000 ARMLS
• 2003-05-15 Sold (MLS) $71,000 ARMLS
• 2003-04-28 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2003-04-23 Listed $72,500 ARMLS
• 2002-12-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2002-12-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2002-12-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2002-11-18 Sold (MLS) $82,000 ARMLS