17200 W Bell Rd · Surprise, AZ 85374

$155,500

1 bd · 0.5 ba · 586 sqft · SingleFamily · 196 Days on market

Built 1988 Fair condition $265/sqft · 24% below area Est $205k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two bedroom mobile home with large Arizona room. furnished. Large laundry / storage room. First bath is a full bath second bath is a full bath but only a shower no tub third bath is just a toilet room. Includes a golf cart. Roof has a 20-year new coating Happy Trails is a 55 plus community lots of fun entertaining things to do there. Check out there website for all the fun amenities that are included in your HOA fee. Lots of snowbirds reside here. If you're looking for more property the lots on either side are also for sale. Lot 614 is an empty landscaped RV lot. 612 is an covered RV lot with a workshop shed.

Key facts

• New plumbing
• Close to front gate
• New appliances

Tags

• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW APPLIANCES
• GREAT PATIO
• CLOSE TO FRONT GATE
• LOTS OF AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $156k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $104 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.2% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Western Peaks Elementary (math 34% / reading 48%, grade F, #386 of 1,109 statewide, top 35%, 628 students, 41% FRL); Willow Canyon High School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #70 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,787 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 630 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 40 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $156k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.88%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,578
• List price: $155,500
• Delta: -23.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17200 W Bell Rd #212	0.41mi	1/1.0	586 (0%)	1mo	$140,000	$239	78
17200 W Bell Rd #817	0.41mi	1/1.0	574 (-2%)	5mo	$220,000	$383	72
17200 W Bell Rd #2125	0.41mi	2/1.0 (+1)	616 (+5%)	9mo	$152,000	$247	58
17200 W Bell Rd #251	0.41mi	1/1.0	509 (-13%)	4mo	$135,000	$265	54
17200 W Bell Rd #1371	0.41mi	1/1.5	516 (-12%)	5mo	$225,000	$436	53
17200 W Bell Rd #880	0.41mi	1/1.0	515 (-12%)	9mo	$264,900	$514	52
17200 W Bell Rd #652	0.41mi	1/1.0	442 (-25%)	5mo	$140,000	$317	50
17200 W Bell Rd #330	0.41mi	1/1.0	715 (+22%)	7mo	$215,000	$301	49
17200 W Bell Rd #522	0.41mi	1/1.0	484 (-17%)	8mo	$160,000	$331	48
17200 W Bell Rd #633	0.41mi	1/1.0	495 (-16%)	9mo	$156,000	$315	47
17200 W Bell Rd #2162	0.41mi	2/1.0 (+1)	726 (+24%)	9mo	$154,900	$213	42
17200 W Bell Rd #759	0.41mi	2/2.0 (+1)	670 (+14%)	7mo	$225,000	$336	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-22,699
• Equity at exit: $23,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-27,290
• Equity at exit: $13,445

Cash invested: $43,540 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85374

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 630
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,492 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$815
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,332/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,360

Max offer price $155,500

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $212	-5% $158	+0% $104	+5% $51	+10% $-3
Rent	-10% $-13	-5% $45	+0% $104	+5% $163	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $183	-0.5pp $144	base $104	+0.5pp $64	+1.0pp $23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,875
• Closing costs: $4,665
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17200 W Bell Rd #274 Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	385	$1,950	$5.06	18d	1	0.42mi
17200 W Bell Rd #1476 Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	398	$1,200	$3.02	49d	1	0.42mi
17701 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,399	$1.56	0d	19	0.90mi
17785 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$1,229	$1.20	0d	36	1.03mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $155,500 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $155,500 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $155,500 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $155,500 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $155,500 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $155,500 Active 191 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $155,500 Active 190 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $155,500 Active 189 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $155,500 Active 188 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $155,500 Active 187 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $155,500 Active 186 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $155,500 Active 185 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $155,500 Active 184 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $155,500 Active 183 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $155,500 Active 177 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $155,500 Active 176 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $155,500 Active 175 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $155,500 Active 172 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $155,500 Active 171 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $155,500 Active 170 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $155,500 Active 169 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $155,500 Active 168 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $155,500 Active 167 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $155,500 Active 166 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $155,500 Active 165 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $155,500 Active 164 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $155,500 Active 163 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $155,500 Active 162 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $155,500 Active 161 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $155,500 Active 160 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $155,500 Active 159 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $155,500 Active 158 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $155,500 Active 157 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $155,500 Active 156 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $155,500 Active 155 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $155,500 Active 154 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $155,500 Active 153 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $155,500 Active 152 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $155,500 Active 151 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $155,500 Active 150 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $155,500 Active 149 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $155,500 Active 147 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $155,500 Active 146 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $155,500 Active 145 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $155,500 Active 144 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $155,500 Active 141 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $155,500 Active 139 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $155,500 Active 138 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $155,500 Active 136 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $155,500 Active 134 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,910
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,710
• − Property taxes: −$2,332
• − Insurance: −$778
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,433
• − Management: −$1,433
• − Depreciation: −$4,524
• Taxable loss: −$1,300
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$312
• After-tax cash flow: $1,565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $14,650–$26,370 screening

A mobile home with average condition, requiring moderate repairs and updates to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — slight wear
• Minor landscaping — basic landscaping

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace linoleum countertops with quartz — improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both install new flooring — enhances overall appearance and functionality ↑
• Both update bathrooms with modern fixtures — enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Western Peaks Elementary F AZ #386/1,109 Nat'l #19,009/41,679 High Willow Canyon High School F AZ #70/381 Nat'l #8,112/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,420
• Household income: $81,201
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.93%
• Current HPI: 254.7782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+186.6% since first listed

102 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $235,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-03-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $155,500 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-02-01 Listed $209,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-01-19 Listed $309,900 ARMLS
• 2024-09-23 Rental Removed $1,500 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-05 Listed for Rent $1,500 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-08-23 Rental Removed $1,650 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-07-24 Listed for Rent $1,650 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-05-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-03-07 Price Changed $169,900 ARMLS
• 2024-02-24 Price Changed $179,900 ARMLS
• 2024-02-07 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-02-05 Price Changed $189,000 ARMLS
• 2024-02-01 Pending — ARMLS
• 2024-02-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-01-30 Price Changed $194,900 ARMLS
• 2024-01-23 Price Changed $124,000 ARMLS
• 2023-12-16 Price Changed $198,000 ARMLS
• 2023-12-10 Listed $265,000 ARMLS
• 2023-11-08 Listed $135,000 ARMLS
• 2009-05-08 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2009-05-08 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2009-01-08 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-09-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-07-08 Listed $169,900 ARMLS
• 2008-06-04 Sold (MLS) $100,000 ARMLS
• 2008-04-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-04-08 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-03-26 Sold (MLS) $150,000 ARMLS
• 2008-03-14 Listed $125,000 ARMLS
• 2008-03-14 Listed $115,000 ARMLS
• 2008-03-13 Listed $124,900 ARMLS
• 2008-03-05 Sold (MLS) $163,500 ARMLS
• 2008-03-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-02-20 Sold (MLS) $115,000 ARMLS
• 2008-02-15 Listed $157,000 ARMLS
• 2008-01-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-01-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-01-26 Listed $169,000 ARMLS
• 2008-01-22 Listed $114,500 ARMLS
• 2007-12-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-11-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-11-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-10-05 Listed $139,000 ARMLS
• 2007-09-20 Listed $112,000 ARMLS
• 2007-07-21 Listed $129,000 ARMLS
• 2007-05-07 Listed $185,000 ARMLS
• 2007-05-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-01-22 Listed $139,000 ARMLS
• 2006-12-04 Listed $219,500 ARMLS
• 2006-12-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-11-06 Listed $265,000 ARMLS
• 2006-10-11 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-08-30 Listed $115,000 ARMLS
• 2006-01-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-11-20 Sold (MLS) $120,000 ARMLS
• 2005-11-06 Sold (MLS) $165,000 ARMLS
• 2005-10-15 Listed $120,000 ARMLS
• 2005-10-07 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-10-05 Listed $165,000 ARMLS
• 2005-08-02 Listed $135,000 ARMLS
• 2005-05-16 Sold (MLS) $70,000 ARMLS
• 2005-05-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-05-03 Listed $89,000 ARMLS
• 2004-12-10 Sold (MLS) $64,500 ARMLS
• 2004-12-01 Sold (MLS) $125,000 ARMLS
• 2004-11-27 Sold (MLS) $91,000 ARMLS
• 2004-11-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-11-05 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-11-02 Listed $66,000 ARMLS
• 2004-11-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-10-24 Listed $95,000 ARMLS
• 2004-10-16 Listed $129,000 ARMLS
• 2004-08-13 Sold (MLS) $75,000 ARMLS
• 2004-08-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-04-22 Listed $75,000 ARMLS
• 2004-04-20 Sold (MLS) $70,000 ARMLS
• 2004-03-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-03-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-02-25 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-02-24 Listed $70,000 ARMLS
• 2004-02-18 Sold (MLS) $65,000 ARMLS
• 2004-01-30 Listed $154,900 ARMLS
• 2004-01-26 Listed $90,000 ARMLS
• 2004-01-19 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2003-12-02 Sold (MLS) $95,000 ARMLS
• 2003-11-23 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2003-11-12 Listed $140,000 ARMLS
• 2003-10-31 Listed $100,000 ARMLS
• 2003-10-23 Listed $68,000 ARMLS
• 2003-08-01 Sold (MLS) $42,500 ARMLS
• 2003-07-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2003-06-11 Listed $45,000 ARMLS
• 2003-05-15 Sold (MLS) $71,000 ARMLS
• 2003-04-28 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2003-04-23 Listed $72,500 ARMLS
• 2002-12-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2002-12-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2002-12-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2002-11-18 Sold (MLS) $82,000 ARMLS