565 Town Bridge Rd · Saluda, VA 23149

$159,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,220 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1962 0.88 ac lot $130/sqft · 32% below area Est $233k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks

Unlock the potential of this 1,220 sq. ft. single-family home, perfectly situated on a generous 0.88-acre level lot. Built in 1962, this 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom residence offers a classic ranch-style footprint that is prime for a modern overhaul. With no HOA fees to contend with, investors have full flexibility for creative renovations or potential expansion. The property includes a carport and garage, providing essential storage and workspace during the rehab process. ARV Potential: Nearby renovated homes in the 23149 area are seeing sales prices ranging from $280k to over $350k, suggesting significant equity growth for the right project.

Key facts

• Generous level lot
• Garage
• Carport

Tags

• GENEROUS LEVEL LOT
• CARPORT
• GARAGE
• POTENTIAL EXPANSION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry level is 1; Resale property
• Construction: Brick veneer and vinyl siding with frame construction; Drywall interior surfaces; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.88 acres; Zoned LDR

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: Bedroom located on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating
• Interior features: Bedroom on main level; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.0% in Saluda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#557 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A, schools B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Middlesex County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #90 of 131 in VA (top 69%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Middlesex County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,634 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.42%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,000
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -31.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
124 Zion Branch Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+6%)	3mo	$326,000	$253	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.71% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $6,412
• Equity at exit: $51,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $39,856
• Equity at exit: $67,225

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23149

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,336 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $792/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,223

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $180	-5% $135	+0% $90	+5% $45	+10% $0
Rent	-10% $-16	-5% $37	+0% $90	+5% $142	+10% $195
Rate	-1.0pp $170	-0.5pp $130	base $90	+0.5pp $48	+1.0pp $7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-05-02
    listed $159,000 Active 645-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $792 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,304 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$512/yr (+$43/mo · 64.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$792
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,283
• − Management: −$1,283
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$1,648
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$396
• After-tax cash flow: $1,472/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middlesex County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102490
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,986
• Composite: 44.58/100
• National rank: #2783
• State rank: #90 of 131 in VA

Livability — Saluda

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #557
• US rank: #26208

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,535

Population outlook (Middlesex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,829 people
• By 2030: 9,340 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 8,411 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 7,795 · -20.7%
• By 2075: 7,471 · -24.0%
• By 2100: 7,049 · -28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Two or more races 19% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Middlesex

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.9% · R 63.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+25.1 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.71%
• Current HPI: 360.0601
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listed $159,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $792 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.