965 Humbolt Way W · Rolling Hills, CA 93636

$401,500

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,847 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 2026 $217/sqft · 18% below area Est $492k · 18% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home is ready for modern lifestyles. An inviting open-concept layout makes up the first floor, blending the kitchen, living and dining areas for seamless transitions and everyday multitasking. All four bedrooms are located on the second level, including a luxe owner's suite featuring a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Luxe owner's suite
• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• KITCHEN LIVING DINING AREAS
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $402k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-508 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (28.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.4% in Rolling Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#809 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools D+, housing D, amenities F.
• Golden Valley Unified (town): math 38% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #151 of 517 in CA (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 420 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,346 units permitted in Madera County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madera County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,871 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.43%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $491,851
• List price: $401,500
• Delta: -18.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1255 Peters Rd S	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (-5%)	6mo	$490,000	$278	68
1275 Traverse Dr S	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (-5%)	0mo	$480,000	$273	67
984 Deerhorn Dr W	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,755 (-5%)	0mo	$430,000	$245	64
1179 Magnolia Ct W	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,956 (+6%)	7mo	$502,600	$257	60
1269 Cathedral Ct S	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,956 (+6%)	6mo	$524,783	$268	59
1274 Talus Way S	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (-5%)	7mo	$516,240	$293	55
834 Traverse Dr S	0.50mi	4/2.0	2,085 (+13%)	2mo	$495,000	$237	52
1039 Horizon Dr W	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-12%)	1mo	$429,000	$262	50
868 Traverse Dr S	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-12%)	2mo	$445,000	$272	50
1174 Grant Ave W	0.45mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,072 (+12%)	3mo	$431,505	$208	49
976 Deerhorn Dr W	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,103 (+14%)	2mo	$475,000	$226	48
997 Pioneer Dr W	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,103 (+14%)	2mo	$475,000	$226	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-97,397
• Equity at exit: $59,865

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-126,330
• Equity at exit: $34,714

Cash invested: $112,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93636

• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,869 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,106
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$502 /mo · $6,022/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$602
• Net cashflow: $-508

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,512

Max offer price $327,934

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,375
• Closing costs: $12,045
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1083 Traverse Dr S Madera, CA	3.0	2.0	1856	$2,500	$1.35	23d	1	0.23mi
1113 Arroyo Way W Madera, CA	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,395	$1.53	44d	1	0.40mi
1027 Deerhorn Dr W Madera, CA	4.0	2.0	1755	$2,695	$1.54	44d	1	0.56mi
997 Pioneer Dr W Madera, CA	4.0	3.0	2103	$2,950	$1.40	44d	1	0.58mi
502 Traverse Dr S Madera, CA	3.0	2.0	1585	$2,450	$1.55	23d	1	0.80mi
996 Ponderosa Way W Madera, CA	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,495	$1.77	20d	1	0.91mi
334 Aria Ave S Madera, CA	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,595	$1.59	44d	1	1.00mi
1185 Dana Rd W Madera, CA	3.0	2.5	1955	$2,700	$1.38	44d	1	1.01mi
965 Thurman Way W Madera, CA	3.0	2.5	1398	$2,495	$1.78	44d	1	1.15mi
241 Aria Ave S Madera, CA	3.0	2.5	1512	$2,450	$1.62	14d	1	1.15mi
1109 Royalty Way W Madera, CA	3.0	2.5	1421	$2,500	$1.76	23d	1	1.16mi
161 Nabors Dr S Madera, CA	3.0	2.5	1412	$2,500	$1.77	44d	1	1.18mi
850 Winchell Way W Madera, CA	3.0	2.5	1398	$2,395	$1.71	23d	1	1.21mi
391 Maclure Ave W Madera, CA	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,895	$1.45	10d	1	1.22mi
857 Winchell Way W Madera, CA	3.0	2.5	1550	$2,375	$1.53	1d	1	1.22mi
1108 Encore Way W Madera, CA	3.0	2.0	1600	$900	$0.56	23d	1	1.23mi
1105 Encore Way W Madera, CA	3.0	2.5	1421	$2,585	$1.82	44d	1	1.25mi
493 S Crescent Ln Madera, CA	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,895	$1.45	1d	1	1.27mi
463 S Crescent Ln Madera, CA	5.0	3.0	2480	$3,200	$1.29	23d	1	1.28mi
601 Wishon Ave W Madera, CA	3.0	2.0	1787	$2,495	$1.40	44d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $402,300 Active 339-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥106°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 44 unhealthy d/yr today · 51 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,490
• − Property taxes: −$6,022
• − Insurance: −$2,008
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,754
• − Management: −$2,754
• − Depreciation: −$11,680
• Taxable loss: −$13,284
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,188
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,913/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Golden Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600068
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,067
• Composite: 42.12/100
• National rank: #3313
• State rank: #151 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rolling Hills

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #809
• US rank: #22874

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Madera County · 133,170 people
• Metro: Madera, CA
• Population (ZIP): 15,294
• Household income: $133,274
• Rent vs Own: 8.2% rent · 91.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 66.0

Population outlook (Madera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,915 people
• By 2030: 159,604 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 163,454 · +3.5%
• By 2050: 167,071 · +5.8%
• By 2075: 171,182 · +8.4%
• By 2100: 162,781 · +3.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 20% Native American 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Russian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madera

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.4% · R 59.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -345.88%
• Current HPI: 303.0675
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Madera, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B