415 N Randolph St · Lexington, VA 24450

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,347 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1922 6,534 sqft lot Est $269k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Schools +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Property sold in ''AS IS/Where IS'' condition. Prime Lexington location with spectacular VMI Football Stadium views! Don't miss this unique opportunity to own a home in the heart of downtown Lexington, so close you can enjoy game-day excitement right from your own front porch. Host friends, tailgate at home, and cheer on the Keydets without ever leaving your property! This classic home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, living room, dining room, kitchen, and off street parking. Outdoor living spaces abound with spacious open front porch overlooking the stadium, rear screened porch for relaxing and entertaining, and second-floor rear porch offering additional outdoor enjoyment. The prope

Key facts

• Off street parking
• Open front porch
• Downtown lexington

Tags

• VMI FOOTBALL STADIUM VIEWS
• DOWNTOWN LEXINGTON
• OPEN FRONT PORCH
• REAR SCREENED PORCH
• SECOND-FLOOR REAR PORCH
• OFF STREET PARKING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential; Residential zoning; Corner lot
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Balcony; Porch (screened)

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Ceiling fans; No central air
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($495/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.3% in Lexington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#62 in VA, #1,813 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Lexington City Public School District (town): math 82% / reading 88% proficiency, ranked #4 of 131 in VA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Harrington Waddell Elementary (math 82% / reading 87%, grade A+, #71 of 1,108 statewide, top 8%, 324 students, 32% FRL); Lylburn Downing Middle (math 82% / reading 87%, grade A+, #14 of 342 statewide, top 4%, 161 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Lexington city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lexington County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,898 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.75%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $269,400
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
224 N Randolph St	0.10mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (-4%)	8mo	$170,000	$131	74
308 Massie St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+10%)	5mo	$281,000	$190	68
110 E Mcdowell St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,377 (+2%)	1mo	$275,000	$200	62
704 Mccorkle Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,365 (+1%)	16mo	$241,000	$177	62
320 N Lewis St	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,462 (+8%)	13mo	$385,000	$263	61
412 Morningside Dr	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,442 (+7%)	12mo	$250,000	$173	58
15 Poyntz Place Pl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+4%)	20mo	$345,000	$245	58
407 Morningside Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,240 (-8%)	14mo	$350,000	$282	57
415 Wills Rd	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,471 (+9%)	16mo	$330,000	$224	51
207 S Jefferson St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,230 (-9%)	14mo	$344,150	$280	34
61 Old Buena Vista Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,482 (+10%)	21mo	$297,000	$200	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-35,540
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-27,921
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24450

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,869 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,259/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,817

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $174	-5% $108	+0% $41	+5% $-25	+10% $-92
Rent	-10% $-106	-5% $-33	+0% $41	+5% $115	+10% $189
Rate	-1.0pp $160	-0.5pp $101	base $41	+0.5pp $-20	+1.0pp $-82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Jean Francis DR Lexington, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	16d	1	0.46mi
45 Holly Park Ln #222 Lexington, VA	2.0	2.0	1254	$1,450	$1.16	16d	1	0.62mi
203 Myers St Apt B Lexington, VA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	16d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $235,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $235,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,259 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,927 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$668/yr (+$56/mo · 53.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,259
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,794
• − Management: −$1,794
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$3,595
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$863
• After-tax cash flow: $1,358/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102220
• Math proficiency: 82% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 88% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $37,249
• Composite: 70.57/100
• National rank: #258
• State rank: #4 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lexington

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #1813

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington, VA
• County: Rockbridge County · 17,714 people
• City population: 17,714
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 17,714
• Household income: $76,587
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 429.0

Population outlook (Lexington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,814 people
• By 2030: 9,156 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 9,636 · +9.3%
• By 2050: 10,345 · +17.4%
• By 2075: 12,696 · +44.0%
• By 2100: 14,268 · +61.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lexington

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 62.7% · R 36.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 25.4pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.0 2016: D+30.6 2012: D+12.6 2008: D+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.84%
• Current HPI: 283.7394
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $235,000 RHR

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,259 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.