23766 Oakleigh Dr · Silverhill, AL 36551

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1999 0.46 ac lot $173/sqft · 25% above area Est $168k · 25% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice manufactured home that has been remodeled & painted. Cabinets redone. floors have new carpet & vinyl, new heat pump inside and out. New bath fixtures and plumbing. Window treatments are new and curtains are custom made. Home has a metal roof. Very convenient to the Eastern Shore, Foley, Gulf Beaches & to the interstate for easy commute to Mobile or Pensacola. Appliances included.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Flex space
• Hobby space

Tags

• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD
• SHED WITH POWER
• HOBBY SPACE
• FLEX SPACE
• CUSTOM TRIM
• METAL ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No community features; No transfer fees

Exterior

• Parking: See remarks for parking details
• Utilities: Loxley utilities; Water: connected; Sewer/power: connected
• Home design: Mobile home; One story; Resale condition; Bay front building orientation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Steel frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Rear porch; Front porch; On waterfront (bay front); Storage structure; Level lot with few trees; Less than 1 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator with ice maker
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central gas cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Split bedroom floor plan; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.1% in Silverhill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#240 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Baldwin Middle School (math 17% / reading 49%, grade F, #101 of 257 statewide, top 40%, 757 students, 74% FRL); Robertsdale High School (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #53 of 305 statewide, top 18%, 1,450 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 38% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $210k implies a 147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,846 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.69%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,221
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: 24.78%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-22,605
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-5,279
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36551

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,798 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $622/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,570

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23266 Wilson Dr Loxley, AL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	43d	1	0.46mi
24249 Gemstone Dr Loxley, AL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,795	$1.35	43d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $209,900 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $209,900 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,900 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $209,900 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $209,900 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $209,900 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,900 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,900 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,900 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $209,900 Active 32 DOM
18. 2026-04-28
    listed $209,900 Active 696-char remark
19. 2026-01-29
    soldstatus $85,000
20. 2014-04-07
    soldstatus $53,000
21. 2014-04-03
    soldstatus $53,000 410-char remark

    Show marketing remark (410 chars)

    Very nice manufactured home that has been remodeled & painted. Cabinets redone. floors have new carpet & vinyl, new heat pump inside and out. New bath fixtures and plumbing. Window treatments are new and curtains are custom made. Home has a metal roof. Very convenient to the Eastern Shore, Foley, Gulf Beaches & to the interstate for easy commute to Mobile or Pensacola. Appliances included.

22. 2014-02-14
    listed $61,500 410-char remark

    Show marketing remark (410 chars)

    Very nice manufactured home that has been remodeled & painted. Cabinets redone. floors have new carpet & vinyl, new heat pump inside and out. New bath fixtures and plumbing. Window treatments are new and curtains are custom made. Home has a metal roof. Very convenient to the Eastern Shore, Foley, Gulf Beaches & to the interstate for easy commute to Mobile or Pensacola. Appliances included.

23. 1999-03-31
    soldstatus $48,495

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $622 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $861 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$238/yr (+$20/mo · 38.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$622
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,727
• − Management: −$1,727
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$1,407
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$338
• After-tax cash flow: $2,506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Silverhill

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #240
• US rank: #17596

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,915

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.18%
• Current HPI: 291.8584
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+332.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $209,900 BCAR
• 2026-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2014-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 2014-04-03 Sold (MLS) $53,000 BCAR
• 2014-02-14 Listed $61,500 BCAR
• 1999-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $48,495 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $622 · +107.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.