Kerry Plan · Warner Robins, GA 31005

$253,790

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · SingleFamily · 440 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Kerry floorplan at Cottages at Blue Ridge is a 3 bedroom, 2 bath single level home covering 1,475 sq. ft. The 2-car garage ensures plenty of space for vehicles and storage. Just upon entry you'll find two private bedrooms and a shared hall bath. Beyond the extended foyer you are welcomed by an open concept space that includes an expansive living area with plenty of room for seating plus a casual dining space to accommodate family and friends. The well-appointed kitchen includes an island offering bar top seating. Beautiful and functional, the kitchen boasts contemporary cabinetry, stainless steel appliances and granite countertops for a sleek and modern feel. A door leads outside to the covered patio so you can entertain with ease or just relax with your morning coffee as you start the day. Located at the back of the home is the private bedroom suite featuring a spacious closet and bath with dual vanities and a separate shower. A convenient laundry room just off the garage completes this design. And you will never be too far from home with Home Is Connected. ® Your new home is built with an industry leading suite of smart home products that keep you connected with the people and place you value most. Photos used for illustrative purposes and may not depict actual home.

Key facts

• Open concept space
• Covered patio
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT SPACE
• EXPANSIVE LIVING AREA
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $253,790 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $255,666.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $254k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-235 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#227 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hilltop Elementary School (math 55% / reading 59%, grade C+, #151 of 1,228 statewide, top 13%, 600 students, 48% FRL); Bonaire Middle School (math 67% / reading 68%, grade A-, #21 of 470 statewide, top 4%, 1,140 students, 32% FRL); Veterans High School (math 33% / reading 32%, grade F, #104 of 424 statewide, top 25%, 1,914 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 405 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 440 days — a 12% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,948 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 440 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.93%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,666
• List price: $253,790
• Delta: -0.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1408 Adirondac Way	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,475 (0%)	15mo	$252,590	$171	86
114 Cascades Court Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,446 (-2%)	3mo	$258,000	$178	86
1402 Adirondac Way	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,475 (0%)	16mo	$263,590	$179	86
1408 Adirondac Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,475 (0%)	14mo	$252,590	$171	85
1410 Adirondac Way	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,419 (-4%)	14mo	$251,055	$177	80
1410 Adirondac Way	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,419 (-4%)	14mo	$251,055	$177	80
112 Kettle River Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+11%)	2mo	$280,000	$172	64
103 Kettle River Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+8%)	13mo	$275,000	$172	62
103 Cascades Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,638 (+11%)	14mo	$276,900	$169	59
114 Garrett Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,619 (+10%)	16mo	$285,000	$176	54
907 Adirondac Way	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,682 (+14%)	15mo	$275,000	$163	53
116 Garrett Ln	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,679 (+14%)	13mo	$287,000	$171	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-53,314
• Equity at exit: $38,121

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-52,718
• Equity at exit: $22,105

Cash invested: $71,586 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 14 active · 23 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.6 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $285,285 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 82 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31005

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 405
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,939 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$320 /mo · $3,835/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,237

Max offer price $221,710

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-58	-5% $-146	+0% $-235	+5% $-323	+10% $-411
Rent	-10% $-388	-5% $-311	+0% $-235	+5% $-158	+10% $-81
Rate	-1.0pp $-106	-0.5pp $-170	base $-235	+0.5pp $-301	+1.0pp $-368

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,916
• Closing costs: $7,670
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1119 Adirondac Way Bonaire, GA	3.0	2.0	1713	$2,000	$1.17	10d	1	0.18mi
203 1st St Bonaire, GA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,400	$1.30	162d	1	0.39mi
507 3rd Ave Bonaire, GA	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,500	$1.30	10d	1	0.58mi
304 Durgin Dr Bonaire, GA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	51d	1	0.84mi
102 Alton Tucker SR Blvd Bonaire, GA	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,195	$1.63	184d	1	1.06mi
300 Lilac Ct Bonaire, GA	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,750	$1.17	37d	1	1.14mi
120 Sasser Dr Bonaire, GA	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,645	$1.34	10d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $253,790 Active 440 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $253,790 Active 439 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $253,790 Active 438 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $253,790 Active 437 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $253,790 Active 436 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $253,790 Active 434 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $253,790 Active 433 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $253,790 Active 432 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $253,790 Active 431 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $253,790 Active 430 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $253,790 Active 429 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $253,790 Active 428 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $253,790 Active 427 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $253,790 Active 426 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $253,790 Active 425 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $253,790 Active 424 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $253,790 Active 423 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $253,790 Active 422 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $253,790 Active 421 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $253,790 Active 420 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $253,790 Active 419 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $253,790 Active 418 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $253,790 Active 417 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $253,790 Active 416 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $253,790 Active 415 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $253,790 Active 414 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $253,790 Active 413 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $253,790 Active 412 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $253,790 Active 411 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $253,790 Active 410 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $253,790 Active 409 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $253,790 Active 408 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $253,790 Active 407 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $253,790 Active 406 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $253,790 Active 405 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $253,790 Active 404 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $253,790 Active 403 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $253,790 Active 402 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $253,790 Active 401 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $253,790 Active 400 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $253,790 Active 399 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $253,790 Active 398 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $253,790 Active 397 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $253,790 Active 396 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $253,790 Active 395 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $253,790 Active 394 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $253,790 Active 393 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $253,790 Active 392 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $253,790 Active 391 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $253,790 Active 390 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,321
• − Property taxes: −$3,835
• − Insurance: −$1,278
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,862
• − Management: −$1,862
• − Depreciation: −$7,438
• Taxable loss: −$7,322
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,757
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,059/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both Add a small outdoor seating area — Enhances curb appeal and rental value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 52/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hilltop Elementary School C+ GA #151/1,228 Nat'l #8,534/41,679 Middle Bonaire Middle School A- GA #21/470 Nat'l #1,003/14,009 High Veterans High School F GA #104/424 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 1302880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,823
• Composite: 38.68/100
• National rank: #4144
• State rank: #23 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Warner Robins

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #13290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warner Robins, GA
• County: Houston County · 169,502 people
• City population: 92,102
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• Population (ZIP): 22,063
• Household income: $110,461
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,502 people
• By 2030: 178,486 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 194,642 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 207,119 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 231,480 · +36.6%
• By 2100: 235,034 · +38.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Salvadoran 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: R (+11.3) · D 44.0% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: -20.2pp · 2024: -11.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.3 2020: R+12.4 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+20.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.85%
• Current HPI: 213.0605
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+0.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $253,790 Zillow
• 2025-08-25 Listed $251,590 Zillow