74711 Dillon Rd #387 · Sky Valley, CA 92241

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 168 Days on market

Built 1981 1,600 sqft lot $87/sqft · at area comps Est $128k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Family Friendly Sky Valley Resort! This home is situated on a Cul-de-sac and has Spectacular Pond & Mountain Views! This property offers 2 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms. It has a Spacious Kitchen with lots of Counter space & Cabinets. . 2 Family Rooms, one with a Fireplace. Nice Dining Area with Built In Hutch. .There's a large Laundry Room with a Computer Desk and lots of cabinets for extra storage. Huge Covered Patio with nice outdoor furniture to relax and take in the Breathtaking views! The roof was re coated in 2024. The exterior of the property was painted & a new Vinyl fence was installed in 2024. . Sky Valley Resort Offers many Great amenities including 13 Hot Mineral Pools & Spa's, Fitness Center, Sauna, Tennis Courts, Pickle Ball Courts, Cafe, Chapel, & a Doggie Park. As a resident you can Golf at the Sister Park, Caliente Springs, which is only a couple miles down the road. This Resort is a Gated, Family Park. The Property has Space Rent and is not on Leased or Fee land. The Space Rent is $1,203. per month. Short Term Rentals are Allowed with Restrictions. Come out and Explore the Desert Lifestyle! Palm Springs is just a short 15-20 minute drive

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Dining area
• Pond views

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• POND VIEWS
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• FIREPLACE
• DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $799 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 9.6% in Sky Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,041 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.38%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,077
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -2.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
74711 Dillon Rd #635	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,490 (+4%)	2mo	$130,000	$87	86
74711 Dillon Rd #389	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	9mo	$158,000	$104	78
74711 Dillon Rd #545	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	9mo	$105,000	$78	76
74711 Dillon Rd #507	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	3mo	$147,500	$118	75
74711 Dillon Rd #385	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	16mo	$85,000	$63	75
74711 Dillon Rd #552	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+9%)	9mo	$116,000	$74	73
74711 Dillon Rd #614	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	6mo	$70,000	$56	73
74711 Dillon Rd #544	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,603 (+11%)	12mo	$130,000	$81	71
74711 Dillon #373	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	14mo	$120,000	$96	66
74711 Dillon Rd #611	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,628 (+13%)	17mo	$105,000	$64	64
74711 Dillon Rd #513	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-13%)	18mo	$81,920	$66	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $30,562
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $91,903
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92241

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,937 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $287/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $799

Break-even live

Break-even rent $926

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 163 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 154 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 153 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 152 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 151 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-01-01
    historical
16. 2025-12-09
    price $125,000
17. 2025-06-12
    price $135,000
18. 2025-04-23
    listed $145,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1209 chars)

    Welcome to Family Friendly Sky Valley Resort! This home is situated on a Cul-de-sac and has Spectacular Pond & Mountain Views! This property offers 2 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms. It has a Spacious Kitchen with lots of Counter space & Cabinets. . 2 Family Rooms, one with a Fireplace. Nice Dining Area with Built In Hutch. .There's a large Laundry Room with a Computer Desk and lots of cabinets for extra storage. Huge Covered Patio with nice outdoor furniture to relax and take in the Breathtaking views! The roof was re coated in 2024. The exterior of the property was painted & a new Vinyl fence was installed in 2024. . Sky Valley Resort Offers many Great amenities including 13 Hot Mineral Pools & Spa's, Fitness Center, Sauna, Tennis Courts, Pickle Ball Courts, Cafe, Chapel, & a Doggie Park. As a resident you can Golf at the Sister Park, Caliente Springs, which is only a couple miles down the road. This Resort is a Gated, Family Park. The Property has Space Rent and is not on Leased or Fee land. The Space Rent is $1,203. per month. Short Term Rentals are Allowed with Restrictions. Come out and Explore the Desert Lifestyle! Palm Springs is just a short 15-20 minute drive

19. 2025-04-23
    listed $125,000 Active 1209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1209 chars)

    Welcome to Family Friendly Sky Valley Resort! This home is situated on a Cul-de-sac and has Spectacular Pond & Mountain Views! This property offers 2 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms. It has a Spacious Kitchen with lots of Counter space & Cabinets. . 2 Family Rooms, one with a Fireplace. Nice Dining Area with Built In Hutch. .There's a large Laundry Room with a Computer Desk and lots of cabinets for extra storage. Huge Covered Patio with nice outdoor furniture to relax and take in the Breathtaking views! The roof was re coated in 2024. The exterior of the property was painted & a new Vinyl fence was installed in 2024. . Sky Valley Resort Offers many Great amenities including 13 Hot Mineral Pools & Spa's, Fitness Center, Sauna, Tennis Courts, Pickle Ball Courts, Cafe, Chapel, & a Doggie Park. As a resident you can Golf at the Sister Park, Caliente Springs, which is only a couple miles down the road. This Resort is a Gated, Family Park. The Property has Space Rent and is not on Leased or Fee land. The Space Rent is $1,203. per month. Short Term Rentals are Allowed with Restrictions. Come out and Explore the Desert Lifestyle! Palm Springs is just a short 15-20 minute drive

20. 2021-08-27
    soldstatus $85,000 Closed
21. 2021-08-09
    status Pending
22. 2021-07-27
    price $89,500
23. 2021-06-23
    listed $99,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $287 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$663/yr (+$55/mo · 231.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$287
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,859
• − Management: −$1,859
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $7,974
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,914
• After-tax cash flow: $7,670/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Springs Unified
• NCES district ID: 0629550
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,638
• Composite: 26.76/100
• National rank: #7131
• State rank: #328 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sky Valley

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1041
• US rank: #25108

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sky Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,624

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 16% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 38% Chinese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.23%
• Current HPI: 400.5663
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+25.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $125,000 GPSMLS
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $135,000 GPSMLS
• 2025-04-23 Listed $125,000 GPSMLS
• 2025-04-23 Listed $145,000 GPSMLS
• 2021-08-27 Sold (MLS) $85,000 GPSMLS
• 2021-08-09 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2021-07-27 Price Changed $89,500 GPSMLS
• 2021-06-23 Listed $99,500 GPSMLS

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $287 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.