1938 S Conway Rd #5 · Orlando, FL 32812

$134,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,302 sqft · Condo public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1970 $542/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy life at Metro at Michigan Park with convenient location & nice amenities! This bright and airy 3/2 second-floor condo offers an open floor plan, in-condo laundry, 16 inch tiled floors in kitchen and bathrooms, pretty wood laminate flooring throughout the living, hall and the spacious bedrooms. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, recessed lighting, and an eat-in area and the great room has room for a dining area as well. The large master bedroom offers a large closet and private bath. The additional bedrooms are spacious and have nice closets as well. The washer and dryer are included. This is a great place and convenient location to call home! The community amenities include: fitness center, laundry room, sandy sunning area, and large pool.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Fitness center
• Unbeatable location

Tags

• IN UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• GATED COMMUNITY
• RESORT STYLE CLUBHOUSE
• FITNESS CENTER
• UNBEATABLE LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $133 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.0% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Conway Elementary (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,587 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 489 students, 70% FRL); William R Boone High (math 36% / reading 58%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,780 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,759 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.22%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-19,206
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-28,211
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32812

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,123 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,867/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$542
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,955

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1948 Conway Rd #6 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,395	$1.27	23d	1	0.01mi
2100 Conway Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,841	$2.78	2d	20	0.07mi
1926 Conway Rd #5 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,750	$1.34	23d	1	0.08mi
2320 S Conway Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	760	$2,000	$2.63	2d	23	0.19mi
1637 Watauga Ave Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	951	$1,432	$1.51	7d	2	0.21mi
2490 Conway Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	984	$1,758	$1.79	1d	14	0.21mi
1704 Edmundshire Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,195	$1.30	23d	1	0.24mi
4310 Yorkshire Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1271	$2,095	$1.65	4d	1	0.26mi
3612 Surrey Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	1.5	1040	$2,200	$2.12	4d	1	0.28mi
2520 Conway Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	967	$1,899	$1.96	11d	15	0.30mi
2001 Conway Gardens Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$2,375	$2.28	23d	1	0.31mi
3700 Curry Ford Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	830	$1,939	$2.34	1d	29	0.34mi
2758 Waymeyer Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1709	$2,850	$1.67	23d	1	0.35mi
3501 E Grant Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$2,850	$1.92	23d	1	0.40mi
1501 Berwyn Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1223	$2,331	$1.91	21d	1	0.44mi
1245 Catalpa Ln Unit 1 Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1010	$3,900	$3.86	20d	1	0.56mi
4895 E Wind St Unit 2 Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,499	$1.50	16d	1	0.57mi
4928 E Michigan St Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1102	$2,050	$1.86	1d	6	0.60mi
2859 Conway Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$2,349	$2.56	7d	17	0.61mi
2803 Glendora Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1615	$2,675	$1.66	7d	1	0.63mi
1638 S Crystal Lake Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	655	$1,750	$2.67	4d	1	0.69mi
2819 Rogan Rd Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1512	$2,700	$1.79	11d	1	0.69mi
4401 Lenmore St #1 Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1375	$3,600	$2.62	23d	1	0.73mi
1448 Adriel Ln Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	712	$1,550	$2.18	21d	1	0.75mi
3037 Condel Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,000	$2.73	23d	1	0.81mi
3149 Landtree Pl Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	751	$2,097	$2.79	1d	15	0.83mi
5273 Tunbridge Wells Ln #1601 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1395	$2,000	$1.43	21d	1	0.87mi
5230 Curry Ford Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	984	$1,250	$1.27	4d	1	0.89mi
5234 Curry Ford Rd #412 Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	984	$1,200	$1.22	23d	1	0.89mi
2786 Curry Ford Rd Unit 6B Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	927	$1,650	$1.78	17d	1	0.93mi
5301 White Cliff Ln Unit 1004 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,800	$1.68	14d	1	0.97mi
4416 Jamerson Pl Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1763	$3,200	$1.82	17d	1	1.04mi
720 Conway Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$2,037	$2.05	1d	13	1.09mi
2250 S Bumby Ave Unit 200 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1672	$2,975	$1.78	14d	1	1.09mi
4004 Lake Underhill Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	891	$2,625	$2.94	1d	15	1.09mi
2220 S Bumby Ave Unit 120 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1672	$2,850	$1.70	23d	1	1.11mi
4380 Lake Underhill Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	10d	1	1.11mi
4380 Lake Underhill Rd Unit A Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	14d	1	1.11mi
1625 Larkin Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,850	$1.54	11d	1	1.12mi
2238 S Bumby Ave Unit 160 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1672	$2,950	$1.76	23d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $542 · $6,504/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-19
   price $134,900
3. 2026-02-04
   price $139,900
4. 2026-01-16
   listed $150,000 Active
5. 2018-07-19
   soldstatus $122,000
6. 2018-07-13
   soldstatus $122,000 Sold 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Enjoy life at Metro at Michigan Park with convenient location & nice amenities! This bright and airy 3/2 second-floor condo offers an open floor plan, in-condo laundry, 16 inch tiled floors in kitchen and bathrooms, pretty wood laminate flooring throughout the living, hall and the spacious bedrooms. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, recessed lighting, and an eat-in area and the great room has room for a dining area as well. The large master bedroom offers a large closet and private bath. The additional bedrooms are spacious and have nice closets as well. The washer and dryer are included. This is a great place and convenient location to call home! The community amenities include: fitness center, laundry room, sandy sunning area, and large pool.

7. 2018-05-29
   status Pending 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Enjoy life at Metro at Michigan Park with convenient location & nice amenities! This bright and airy 3/2 second-floor condo offers an open floor plan, in-condo laundry, 16 inch tiled floors in kitchen and bathrooms, pretty wood laminate flooring throughout the living, hall and the spacious bedrooms. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, recessed lighting, and an eat-in area and the great room has room for a dining area as well. The large master bedroom offers a large closet and private bath. The additional bedrooms are spacious and have nice closets as well. The washer and dryer are included. This is a great place and convenient location to call home! The community amenities include: fitness center, laundry room, sandy sunning area, and large pool.

8. 2018-05-18
   price $127,000 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Enjoy life at Metro at Michigan Park with convenient location & nice amenities! This bright and airy 3/2 second-floor condo offers an open floor plan, in-condo laundry, 16 inch tiled floors in kitchen and bathrooms, pretty wood laminate flooring throughout the living, hall and the spacious bedrooms. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, recessed lighting, and an eat-in area and the great room has room for a dining area as well. The large master bedroom offers a large closet and private bath. The additional bedrooms are spacious and have nice closets as well. The washer and dryer are included. This is a great place and convenient location to call home! The community amenities include: fitness center, laundry room, sandy sunning area, and large pool.

9. 2018-04-14
   listed $130,000 Active 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Enjoy life at Metro at Michigan Park with convenient location & nice amenities! This bright and airy 3/2 second-floor condo offers an open floor plan, in-condo laundry, 16 inch tiled floors in kitchen and bathrooms, pretty wood laminate flooring throughout the living, hall and the spacious bedrooms. The kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, recessed lighting, and an eat-in area and the great room has room for a dining area as well. The large master bedroom offers a large closet and private bath. The additional bedrooms are spacious and have nice closets as well. The washer and dryer are included. This is a great place and convenient location to call home! The community amenities include: fitness center, laundry room, sandy sunning area, and large pool.

10. 2014-01-16
    soldstatus $45,500 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Come see this 3 bedroom, 2 bath condo in Metro at Michigan Park Condos! Super spacious unit! Carpet throughout! Location is convenient to shopping, restaurants & more! All information recorded in the MLS is intended to be accurate but cannot be guaranteed.

11. 2013-11-06
    listed $55,000 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Come see this 3 bedroom, 2 bath condo in Metro at Michigan Park Condos! Super spacious unit! Carpet throughout! Location is convenient to shopping, restaurants & more! All information recorded in the MLS is intended to be accurate but cannot be guaranteed.

12. 2013-03-01
    historical
13. 2013-02-18
    listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,867 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,867 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,481
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$2,867
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,039
• − Management: −$2,039
• − HOA: −$6,504
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable loss: −$122
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$29
• After-tax cash flow: $1,625/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Orlando

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #360

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orlando, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 964,969
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,686
• Household income: $73,149
• Rent vs Own: 39.5% rent · 60.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1653.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 18% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 28% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.16%
• Current HPI: 352.6841
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.00%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+199.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-13 Sold (MLS) $122,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-18 Price Changed $127,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-14 Listed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-16 Sold (MLS) $45,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-06 Listed $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-18 Listed $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,867 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.