2928 Hammonton Smartsville Rd #37 · Linda, CA 95901

$60,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Land · 60 Days on market

Built 1980 $39/sqft · 37% above area Est $44k · 37% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this spacious home offering a functional layout, abundant natural light, and incredible potential for the next owner to make it their own. Step inside to a large open living area with plenty of room to relax, entertain, and enjoy everyday living. The layout flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, creating a comfortable and practical setup. The home features 4 bedrooms, one of the bedrooms is unfinished, and needs flooring/sheetrock, it provides a great opportunity for customization to fit your needs. Outside, you'll find a driveway with convenient access and yard space ready for your personal touch. This property offers strong potential and value. Great location, feel

Key facts

• Near beale afb
• Unfinished room
• Open living area

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AREA
• KITCHEN AND DINING SPACE
• UNFINISHED ROOM
• 2 DRIVEWAYS
• YARD SPACE
• NEAR BEALE AFB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 35.9% vs local median 2.8% in Linda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#995 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Marysville Joint Unified (suburban): math 14% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #455 of 517 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 750 units permitted in Yuba County in 2024 (41 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yuba County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 105.62%
• DSCR: 5.70
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $43,887
• List price: $60,000
• Delta: 36.72%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $81,838
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.84×
• Total profit: $182,040
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95901

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,326 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $235/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $1,479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $455

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 31%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,513	-5% $1,496	+0% $1,479	+5% $1,462	+10% $1,445
Rent	-10% $1,295	-5% $1,387	+0% $1,479	+5% $1,571	+10% $1,662
Rate	-1.0pp $1,509	-0.5pp $1,494	base $1,479	+0.5pp $1,463	+1.0pp $1,447

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2226 Mickelson Dr Marysville, CA	3.0	2.0	1104	$2,195	$1.99	14d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $60,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $60,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $60,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $60,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $60,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 41 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $60,000 Active 40 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $235 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $456 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: +$221/yr (+$18/mo · 93.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,918
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$235
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,233
• − Management: −$2,233
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $17,809
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,274
• After-tax cash flow: $13,469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marysville Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0624090
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $44,598
• Composite: 18.18/100
• National rank: #8961
• State rank: #455 of 517 in CA

Livability — Linda

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #995
• US rank: #24769

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Yuba County · 71,731 people
• Metro: Yuba City, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,732
• Household income: $69,776
• Rent vs Own: 46.0% rent · 54.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (Yuba County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,432 people
• By 2030: 75,358 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 74,643 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 72,937 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 66,368 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 54,524 · -27.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 17% Asian 9% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yuba

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.8) · D 35.7% · R 61.5% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.7pp · 2024: -25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.8 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+14.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -268.01%
• Current HPI: 203.7684
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.87%
• Metro: Yuba City, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $235 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.