10719 Carvel Ln · Houston, TX 77072

$199,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,389 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1968 8,010 sqft lot $84/sqft · 16% below area Est $238k · 16% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a roomy, functional home in Alief without the fluff? This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom layout gives you the space you actually need to live comfortably. The house features a converted garage that serves as a massive family room, plus an extended primary bedroom that offers way more room than standard builds in the area. Out back, you get a fully fenced yard with a storage shed, alongside an enclosed patio that provides extra living space no matter the weather. You are right by the Sam Houston Parkway, making it easy to get around the city. It sits practically next door to the Westchase district, giving you incredibly close access to major employers, groceries, and great local food. The local elementary school is just a short distance away.

Key facts

• 8,010 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-265 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (23.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Alief ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #717 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 204 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,277/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 3500% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $200k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,017 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.45%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,842
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -15.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10719 Carvel Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,389 (0%)	1mo	$199,900	$84	100
10927 Sandstone St	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,349 (-2%)	7mo	$249,900	$106	77
10711 Sharpview Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,123 (-11%)	3mo	$195,000	$92	66
11226 Langdon Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,206 (-8%)	4mo	$234,900	$106	51
11223 Pompano Ln	0.52mi	4/2.0	2,167 (-9%)	19mo	$210,000	$97	44
10215 Beechnut St Unit 1270	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,593 (+8%)	11mo	$849,900	$328	42
6643 Briar Glade Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0	2,071 (-13%)	9mo	$239,000	$115	40
11247 Langdon Ln	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,059 (-14%)	2mo	$260,000	$126	40
10719 Bellfair Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,119 (-11%)	6mo	$265,500	$125	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-55,407
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -70.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.67×
• Total profit: $-93,569
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77072

• Home prices YoY: -26.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,277 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$489 /mo · $5,873/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,613

Max offer price $153,017

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9343 Starfire Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2520	$2,150	$0.85	7d	1	1.23mi
9215 Sharpcrest St Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	1884	$2,500	$1.33	43d	1	1.24mi
9206 Sharpview Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2083	$2,150	$1.03	13d	1	1.36mi
9206 Sharpview Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2083	$2,150	$1.03	11d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Active 754-char remark

   Show marketing remark (754 chars)

   Looking for a roomy, functional home in Alief without the fluff? This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom layout gives you the space you actually need to live comfortably. The house features a converted garage that serves as a massive family room, plus an extended primary bedroom that offers way more room than standard builds in the area. Out back, you get a fully fenced yard with a storage shed, alongside an enclosed patio that provides extra living space no matter the weather. You are right by the Sam Houston Parkway, making it easy to get around the city. It sits practically next door to the Westchase district, giving you incredibly close access to major employers, groceries, and great local food. The local elementary school is just a short distance away.

2. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 754-char remark

   Show marketing remark (754 chars)

   Looking for a roomy, functional home in Alief without the fluff? This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom layout gives you the space you actually need to live comfortably. The house features a converted garage that serves as a massive family room, plus an extended primary bedroom that offers way more room than standard builds in the area. Out back, you get a fully fenced yard with a storage shed, alongside an enclosed patio that provides extra living space no matter the weather. You are right by the Sam Houston Parkway, making it easy to get around the city. It sits practically next door to the Westchase district, giving you incredibly close access to major employers, groceries, and great local food. The local elementary school is just a short distance away.

3. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 754-char remark

   Show marketing remark (754 chars)

   Looking for a roomy, functional home in Alief without the fluff? This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom layout gives you the space you actually need to live comfortably. The house features a converted garage that serves as a massive family room, plus an extended primary bedroom that offers way more room than standard builds in the area. Out back, you get a fully fenced yard with a storage shed, alongside an enclosed patio that provides extra living space no matter the weather. You are right by the Sam Houston Parkway, making it easy to get around the city. It sits practically next door to the Westchase district, giving you incredibly close access to major employers, groceries, and great local food. The local elementary school is just a short distance away.

4. 2026-04-07
   listed $199,900 Active 754-char remark

   Show marketing remark (754 chars)

   Looking for a roomy, functional home in Alief without the fluff? This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom layout gives you the space you actually need to live comfortably. The house features a converted garage that serves as a massive family room, plus an extended primary bedroom that offers way more room than standard builds in the area. Out back, you get a fully fenced yard with a storage shed, alongside an enclosed patio that provides extra living space no matter the weather. You are right by the Sam Houston Parkway, making it easy to get around the city. It sits practically next door to the Westchase district, giving you incredibly close access to major employers, groceries, and great local food. The local elementary school is just a short distance away.

5. 2010-11-19
   soldstatus 379-char remark

   Show marketing remark (379 chars)

   Great starter home located in southwest Houston with easy access to the Sam Houston Parkway. Garage conversion used as a large family room. Additional add-on to make a huge master bedroom. Enclosed patio and storage shed at rear. This area is convenient to lots of retail establishments, major employers, shopping and restaurants. An elementary school is within walking distance.

6. 2010-10-19
   historical 379-char remark

   Show marketing remark (379 chars)

   Great starter home located in southwest Houston with easy access to the Sam Houston Parkway. Garage conversion used as a large family room. Additional add-on to make a huge master bedroom. Enclosed patio and storage shed at rear. This area is convenient to lots of retail establishments, major employers, shopping and restaurants. An elementary school is within walking distance.

7. 2010-09-10
   listed $64,900 379-char remark

   Show marketing remark (379 chars)

   Great starter home located in southwest Houston with easy access to the Sam Houston Parkway. Garage conversion used as a large family room. Additional add-on to make a huge master bedroom. Enclosed patio and storage shed at rear. This area is convenient to lots of retail establishments, major employers, shopping and restaurants. An elementary school is within walking distance.

8. 2005-10-03
   soldstatus
9. 2004-08-01
   historical
10. 2004-02-01
    listed $116,100
11. 2004-01-28
    historical
12. 2003-11-01
    listed $116,100
13. 1999-03-10
    soldstatus
14. 1999-03-01
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,873 · $489/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,873 · $489/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,329
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$5,873
• − Insurance: −$6,118
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,186
• − Management: −$2,186
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$6,251
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,500
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alief ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807830
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,775
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8391
• State rank: #717 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 57,108
• Household income: $51,070
• Rent vs Own: 54.8% rent · 45.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3500.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% Asian 24% Black 23% Two or more races 19% White 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 2%
• Foreign-born: 52% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 30% English-only · Spanish 40% Vietnamese 16% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.12%
• Current HPI: 362.1985
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.05%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+233.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2010-11-19 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-10-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-09-10 Listed $64,900 HARMLS
• 2005-10-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-08-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-02-01 Listed $116,100 HARMLS
• 2004-01-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2003-11-01 Listed $116,100 HARMLS
• 1999-03-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,873 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.