4822 Arbor Oaks Blvd · New Port Richey East, FL 34653

$5,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,626 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1991 9,148 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing Move-in ready pool home in Mill Run located on oversized corner lot. This home features : 3 bedrooms, 2 bathroom, 2 + Car Garage, & has many newer improvements including Large Kitchen with loads of cabinets, granite counters, stainless steel appliance, Flat Top Stove, & eat-in area. Spacious master suite with updated master bath that has double sinks, and separate shower, walk-in closets , vaulted ceilings, laundry room w/ cabinets & closet, Updated 2nd Bathroom with stone countertops, upgraded light fixtures & fans, Wood Flooring, huge screened-in brick pavered lanai w/ In ground pool & oversized yard, upgraded landscaping, and much more. Great location convenient to shopping, schools, medical, golf, restaurants, beaches, Tampa & new Trinity Hospital. Hurry won't last long!

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1991

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R4; Lot size about 0.21 acres

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Other water source; Other sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Residential property
• Construction: Construction materials: see remarks
• Exterior features: Front porch; Other roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 room total
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating specified; No cooling specified
• Interior features: Front porch

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $5,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$338,208) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $5k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $5k).
• Cap rate 383.8% vs local median 4.3% in New Port Richey East — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#499 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 305 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,035/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 1439% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $35 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $150 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 40.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 383.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1348.26%
• DSCR: 60.99
• GRM: 0.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $338,208
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7665 Deer Foot Dr	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,640 (+1%)	2mo	$340,000	$207	79
4752 Meadowsweet Ct	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,824 (+12%)	0mo	$379,000	$208	76
5147 Worth Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,541 (-5%)	4mo	$320,000	$208	70
4434 Whitton Way	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,598 (-2%)	4mo	$315,000	$197	69
8041 Blue Finch Way	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,534 (-6%)	5mo	$325,000	$212	69
4550 Murcross Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,563 (-4%)	1mo	$399,000	$255	66
4237 Northampton Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,555 (-4%)	2mo	$320,000	$206	64
8357 Matthew Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,593 (-2%)	4mo	$360,000	$226	64
4425 Black Fox Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,549 (-5%)	1mo	$320,000	$207	62
4235 Manxcat Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,549 (-5%)	4mo	$305,000	$197	60
4644 Sawgrass Blvd	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,717 (+6%)	4mo	$305,000	$178	58
4731 Spring Side Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,820 (+12%)	5mo	$480,000	$264	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 67.74×
• Total profit: $93,440
• Equity at exit: $746

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 134.89×
• Total profit: $187,447
• Equity at exit: $432

Cash invested: $1,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34653

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 305
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,035 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$26
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6 /mo · $75/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $1,573

Break-even live

Break-even rent $44

Max offer price $5,000

Occupancy floor 18%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,250
• Closing costs: $150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4851 Mill Run Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,185	$1.50	14d	1	0.06mi
5101 Glenhurst Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1419	$2,310	$1.63	4d	1	0.28mi
7704 Riverdale Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,916	$1.45	4d	1	0.39mi
8107 Blue Finch Way New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,975	$1.50	24d	1	0.41mi
8135 Brown Pelican Ave New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1089	$2,000	$1.84	4d	1	0.48mi
8403 Yearling Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1277	$2,125	$1.66	10d	1	0.62mi
4420 Sawgrass Blvd New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	24d	1	0.63mi
4347 Otter Way New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,715	$1.28	1d	1	0.65mi
8504 Yearling Ln New Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.0	1649	$2,550	$1.55	17d	1	0.70mi
4331 Fiji Dr New Port Richey, FL	1.0–5.0	2.0–5.0	1343	$1,708	$1.27	3d	11	0.72mi
8504 Shallow Creek Ct New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1686	$2,050	$1.22	24d	1	0.84mi
8712 Cypress Lakes Blvd New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1729	$2,240	$1.30	14d	1	0.88mi
7733 Atherton Ave New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1291	$1,775	$1.37	16d	1	1.00mi
8559 Pilgrim Ct New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	1236	$1,500	$1.21	20d	1	1.00mi
8563 Pilgrim Ct New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	1236	$1,400	$1.13	4d	1	1.00mi
6807 Porter Rd Unit PGC C-5432-209 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	17d	1	1.03mi
6807 Porter Rd Unit PCG G-101 New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.5	1080	$1,375	$1.27	4d	1	1.03mi
7911 Aden Loop New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1067	$1,785	$1.67	24d	1	1.04mi
3707 Mexicali St New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,925	$1.62	4d	1	1.11mi
7742 Arlight Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1653	$1,995	$1.21	24d	1	1.12mi
7441 Carmel Ave New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,875	$1.51	2d	1	1.15mi
7239 Belvedere Ter New Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.0	1200	$2,800	$2.33	17d	1	1.20mi
9026 Severn Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	3d	1	1.20mi
3602 Murrow St New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1283	$2,090	$1.63	4d	1	1.22mi
5223 Hunters Ridge Dr New Port Richey, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1128	$2,235	$1.98	21d	5	1.30mi
3455 Monte Rio St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1291	$1,775	$1.37	17d	1	1.34mi
7220 Exemplar Dr New Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.0	1433	$2,085	$1.45	24d	1	1.35mi
8930 Lazy River Loop New Port Richey, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1018	$1,869	$1.84	1d	12	1.40mi
7543 Ivory Ter New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1653	$1,895	$1.15	24d	1	1.40mi
4233 Belle Isle Ct New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,895	$1.49	19d	1	1.41mi
4233 Belle Isle Ct New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,950	$1.53	24d	1	1.41mi
3406 Murrow St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1262	$1,750	$1.39	1d	1	1.41mi
8248 Corner Pine Way New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,200	$1.35	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $5,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $5,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $5,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $5,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $5,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $5,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $5,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $5,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$280
• − Property taxes: −$75
• − Insurance: −$25
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,953
• − Management: −$1,953
• − Depreciation: −$145
• Taxable income: $19,986
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,797
• After-tax cash flow: $14,079/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — New Port Richey East

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #499
• US rank: #9203

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 36,086
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,945
• Household income: $49,563
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1439.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.10%
• Current HPI: 324.6519
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.92%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-94.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $5,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-04-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-09 Listed $259,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $179,000 Public Records
• 2014-06-12 Sold (MLS) $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-29 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-21 Price Changed $184,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-19 Listed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $144,000 Public Records
• 2001-01-18 Sold (Public Records) $134,000 Public Records
• 1995-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $92,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,801 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.