5377 Princeton Kenly Rd #31 · Princeton, NC 27542

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,418 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 0.97 ac lot Est $261k · 7% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +4.2/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

The Chastin Plan~ 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, Double Garage, NEW Construction, PreSale

Key facts

• 0.97 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.97 acres (irregular dimensions)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Site-built single-story home; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Block and stem wall foundation; Built on-site construction
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Public maintained paved road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total, 1 bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet and laminate flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-256 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (24.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.3% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#82 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Johnston Middle (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #326 of 475 statewide, top 69%, 600 students, 72% FRL); North Johnston High (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #445 of 535 statewide, top 84%, 787 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 41% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,500 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.91%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $260,912
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
77 Sunshine Rd #3	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,494 (+5%)	14mo	$283,000	$189	52
47 Queenstown Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,494 (+5%)	15mo	$280,000	$187	51
136 Queenstown Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,529 (+8%)	18mo	$265,912	$174	48
250 Queenstown Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,529 (+8%)	18mo	$263,000	$172	37
157 Queenstown Dr	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,629 (+15%)	20mo	$292,000	$179	25
243 Queenstown Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,629 (+15%)	22mo	$299,200	$184	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $136,195
• Equity at exit: $252,156

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.28×
• Total profit: $413,937
• Equity at exit: $543,784

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27542

• Home prices YoY: 16.6%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,198/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $242,918

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-62	-5% $-159	+0% $-256	+5% $-352	+10% $-449
Rent	-10% $-423	-5% $-340	+0% $-256	+5% $-172	+10% $-88
Rate	-1.0pp $-115	-0.5pp $-184	base $-256	+0.5pp $-328	+1.0pp $-402

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
224 Williamson Place Dr Princeton, NC	3.0	2.5	1573	$2,125	$1.35	3d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-18
   listed $279,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$4,198
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,040
• − Management: −$2,040
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$7,999
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,920
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,147/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702370
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,912
• Composite: 34.99/100
• National rank: #5052
• State rank: #105 of 178 in NC

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #5811

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,441

Population outlook (Johnston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 222,440 people
• By 2030: 240,227 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 274,616 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 304,915 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 369,507 · +66.1%
• By 2100: 406,280 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Serbian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.7% · R 60.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.2pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.03%
• Current HPI: 280.6408
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $279,900 TMLS