829 Caribbean Dr · South Toledo Bend, TX 71429

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 47 Days on market

Built 2010 0.58 ac lot $137/sqft · 15% above area Est $120k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a camp on Toledo Bend? Take a look at this one. Large open living room and kitchen with 2 bedrooms PLUS an additional FLEX SPACE room. Appliances and furnishings to remain. A 24x30 SHOP on a slab wired with electricity ALSO an RV Awning. Wrap around porches with built-in picnic tables. New Roof and New Plumbing! It's a must for your Summer get away. Call your realtor today.

Key facts

• Open living room
• Rv awning
• Flex space room

Tags

• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• FLEX SPACE ROOM
• 24X30 SHOP
• RV AWNING
• WRAP AROUND PORCHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.4% in South Toledo Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,431 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D, schools F.
• Sabine Parish (rural): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #40 of 98 in LA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 49 units permitted in Sabine Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sabine County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $145k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.45%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,820
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: 21.01%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
360 Captain Kidd Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,060 (+0%)	8mo	$145,000	$137	76
433 Captain Kidd Dr	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (+4%)	7mo	$100,000	$91	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,042
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $27,821
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71429

• Home prices YoY: -29.9%
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,531 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $419/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,083

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $145,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $145,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $145,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $145,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-04-16
   listed $145,000 Active 388-char remark

   Show marketing remark (388 chars)

   Looking for a camp on Toledo Bend? Take a look at this one. Large open living room and kitchen with 2 bedrooms PLUS an additional FLEX SPACE room. Appliances and furnishings to remain. A 24x30 SHOP on a slab wired with electricity ALSO an RV Awning. Wrap around porches with built-in picnic tables. New Roof and New Plumbing! It's a must for your Summer get away. Call your realtor today.

6. 2022-08-09
   soldstatus 307-char remark

   Show marketing remark (307 chars)

   Looking for a camp on Toledo Bend? Take a look at this one. Large open living room and kitchen with 2 bedrooms PLUS a bonus room. A 24x30 SHOP on a slab wired with electricity ALSO an RV Awning. Wrap around porches with built-in picnic tables. It's a must for your Summer get away. Call your realtor today.

7. 2021-04-28
   soldstatus $73,500
8. 2020-07-07
   listed $80,000 307-char remark

   Show marketing remark (307 chars)

   Looking for a camp on Toledo Bend? Take a look at this one. Large open living room and kitchen with 2 bedrooms PLUS a bonus room. A 24x30 SHOP on a slab wired with electricity ALSO an RV Awning. Wrap around porches with built-in picnic tables. It's a must for your Summer get away. Call your realtor today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $419 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,234/yr (+$186/mo · 532.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,370
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$419
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,470
• − Management: −$1,470
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $1,946
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$467
• After-tax cash flow: $3,776/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sabine Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201380
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -35.00%
• Median HH income: $37,017
• Composite: 27.41/100
• National rank: #6970
• State rank: #40 of 98 in LA

Livability — South Toledo Bend

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1431
• US rank: #24460

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,101

Population outlook (Sabine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,820 people
• By 2030: 23,505 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 22,885 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 22,235 · -6.7%
• By 2075: 20,257 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 17,348 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sabine

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.1) · D 14.6% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.5pp toward R · 2008: -51.6pp · 2024: -70.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.1 2020: R+66.5 2016: R+63.1 2012: R+55.1 2008: R+51.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.68%
• Current HPI: 146.6056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+81.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $145,000 GFPAR
• 2022-08-09 Sold (MLS) — GFPAR
• 2021-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $73,500 Public Records
• 2020-07-07 Listed $80,000 GFPAR

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $419 · -6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.