16810 N 2nd Dr #269 · Phoenix, AZ 85023

$29,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 94 Days on market

Built 1984 Est $43k · 33% under ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home in a highly desirable location close to popular dining and convenient shopping. Nestled within a welcoming adult community, residents enjoy fantastic amenities including a refreshing pool, golf, shuffleboard, and a vibrant clubhouse. The property also features a fenced yard area, perfect for relaxing or entertaining, and a separate workshop with power, ideal for hobbies or extra storage. A wonderful opportunity to enjoy comfort, convenience, and an active lifestyle all in one place.

Key facts

• Refreshing pool
• Vibrant clubhouse
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• HIGHLY DESIRABLE LOCATION
• REFRESHING POOL
• VIBRANT CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size source: owner; Building area source: owner
• HOA & community: Land lease: $1,063 monthly; Community pool; Community golf

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Wood frame construction; Composition roof; Foam roof
• Exterior features: Screened-in patio(s); Storage; Gravel/stone front yard; Gravel/stone back yard; Synthetic grass in back

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Breakfast bar; No interior steps; Vaulted ceilings; Separate shower and tub
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $29k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $29k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 67.9% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Glendale Union High School District (4285) (urban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #130 of 249 in AZ (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $200 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $870 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (42%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,390 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 67.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 219.95%
• DSCR: 10.79
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $43,008
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16804 N 2nd Dr #156	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	10mo	$67,000	$47	75
16805 N 1st Dr #22	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (+2%)	16mo	$43,500	$28	73
16809 N 1st Ave #47	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	16mo	$22,000	$15	69
16607 N 3rd Ave	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-12%)	3mo	$100,000	$74	65
16811 N 1st Ave #48	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	16mo	$20,000	$14	64
16602 N 2nd Ln	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-12%)	6mo	$59,900	$45	62
16814 N 2nd Ln #245	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-12%)	23mo	$35,500	$26	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.33×
• Total profit: $83,861
• Equity at exit: $4,324

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.06×
• Total profit: $171,006
• Equity at exit: $2,507

Cash invested: $8,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85023

• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,138 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$152
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$36 /mo · $435/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $1,488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $254

Max offer price $29,000

Occupancy floor 25%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,250
• Closing costs: $870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
220 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$1,989	$1.84	1d	32	0.17mi
11 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,705	$1.79	1d	11	0.21mi
415 W Aire Libre Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1615	$2,100	$1.30	16d	1	0.24mi
233 W Sandra Ter Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1971	$2,895	$1.47	1d	1	0.33mi
618 W Aire Libre Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2057	$2,750	$1.34	2d	1	0.34mi
234 W Beverly Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1971	$2,950	$1.50	23d	1	0.36mi
118 E Anderson Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1272	$1,950	$1.53	24d	1	0.37mi
17420 N 2nd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1312	$2,000	$1.52	21d	1	0.40mi
229 E Anderson Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1256	$2,100	$1.67	7d	1	0.47mi
314 E Hartford Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1320	$2,195	$1.66	24d	1	0.52mi
313 W Monte Cristo Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,550	$1.48	1d	1	0.53mi
16220 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,708	$1.93	1d	35	0.56mi
16229 N 10th Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	2111	$2,550	$1.21	13d	1	0.62mi
15822 N 5th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1558	$2,400	$1.54	1d	1	0.62mi
17646 N 6th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1286	$2,200	$1.71	3d	1	0.63mi
17249 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,933	$2.02	1d	37	0.84mi
18207 N 5th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,300	$1.39	7d	1	0.85mi
17625 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,739	$1.88	3d	7	0.92mi
1312 W Libby St Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	1997	$2,650	$1.33	24d	1	0.98mi
815 E Grovers Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1469	$2,800	$1.91	5d	2	1.04mi
17243 N 10th St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	2196	$3,100	$1.41	24d	1	1.09mi
726 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,000	$1.84	10d	1	1.10mi
726 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,000	$1.84	18d	1	1.10mi
1413 W Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1539	$1,850	$1.20	21d	1	1.12mi
1100 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$2,274	$2.30	1d	26	1.13mi
1305 W Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,300	$1.64	18d	1	1.14mi
1028 E Paradise Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1624	$2,195	$1.35	24d	1	1.15mi
18624 N 2nd Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1813	$2,600	$1.43	24d	1	1.15mi
17617 N 9th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$2,017	$2.11	1d	35	1.16mi
229 W Pine Valley Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2168	$3,300	$1.52	1d	1	1.21mi
16875 N 12th St #3 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1755	$2,600	$1.48	12d	1	1.21mi
16875 N 12th St #24 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1736	$2,200	$1.27	7d	1	1.21mi
17617 N 17th Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1353	$2,100	$1.55	3d	1	1.22mi
1407 W Bluefield Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1710	$2,350	$1.37	18d	1	1.22mi
1637 W Tierra Buena Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	2026	$2,450	$1.21	13d	1	1.23mi
1633 W Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1441	$1,796	$1.25	7d	1	1.24mi
524 W Rosemonte Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,500	$1.65	24d	1	1.27mi
16875 N 12th St Unit 17 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1323	$2,200	$1.66	24d	1	1.28mi
1216 E Angela Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1887	$2,300	$1.22	24d	1	1.29mi
16601 N 12th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1242	$1,995	$1.61	1d	21	1.29mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $29,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $29,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $29,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-07
    price $29,000
15. 2026-04-19
    status Active
16. 2026-04-19
    price $35,000
17. 2026-04-16
    status Pending
18. 2026-04-09
    price $45,000
19. 2026-03-27
    price $47,400
20. 2026-03-13
    listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,652
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,624
• − Property taxes: −$435
• − Insurance: −$145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,052
• − Management: −$2,052
• − Depreciation: −$844
• Taxable income: $18,499
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,440
• After-tax cash flow: $13,420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Glendale Union High School District (4285)
• NCES district ID: 0403450
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $40,846
• Composite: 22.81/100
• National rank: #8020
• State rank: #130 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,034
• Household income: $77,369
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1539.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.79%
• Current HPI: 311.8587
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.35%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-41.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $29,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $35,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $45,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $47,400 ARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $49,900 ARMLS