2019 Rogue River Hwy · Foots Creek, OR 97525

$99,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1988

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy peaceful living in this spacious 2 bedroom, 2 full bathroom manufactured home located in a quiet 55+ community with beautiful mountain and territorial views. This well-designed home features an open floor plan with a large living room, dining room, and a comfortable den or bonus room, giving you plenty of space for relaxing, entertaining, or hobbies. The kitchen includes a convenient laundry room with washer and dryer, making everyday living easy and efficient. Step outside to a large deck overlooking a nicely lawned yard, perfect for enjoying the fresh Southern Oregon air. The property also includes a large covered carport and a separate storage/shop building for tools, projects, or

Key facts

• Large deck
• Lawned yard
• Open floor plan

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• TERRITORIAL VIEWS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE DECK
• LAWNED YARD
• COVERED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $461 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#351 in OR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B+, housing B; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools D-.
• Central Point SD 6 (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #42 of 58 in OR (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 11 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $100k implies a 453% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.86%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $483,936
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1586 Rogue River Hwy	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,010 (-11%)	22mo	$430,000	$426	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $13,285
• Equity at exit: $14,836

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $49,547
• Equity at exit: $8,603

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97525

• Home prices YoY: -19.9%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,489 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,828/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $906

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,500 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,500 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,500 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,500 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,500 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   listed $99,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,828 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,828 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 9 d/yr ≥95°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,874
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$1,828
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,430
• − Management: −$1,430
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $4,221
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,013
• After-tax cash flow: $4,521/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Point SD 6
• NCES district ID: 4102940
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $49,736
• Composite: 26.09/100
• National rank: #7290
• State rank: #42 of 58 in OR

Livability — Foots Creek

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #351
• US rank: #25298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment C- Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,732

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.75%
• Current HPI: 348.5116
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+118.7% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $99,500 FSBO.com
• 2020-04-26 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2016-05-12 Sold (MLS) $18,000 MLSCO
• 2016-04-27 Listed $20,999 MLSCO
• 2011-03-04 Sold (MLS) $34,500 RMLS
• 2011-03-04 Sold (MLS) $34,500 MLSCO
• 2010-09-15 Listed $44,500 MLSCO
• 2010-09-09 Listed $44,500 RMLS
• 2008-09-25 Sold (MLS) $20,000 RMLS
• 2008-09-25 Sold (MLS) $20,000 MLSCO
• 2008-07-11 Listed $22,000 MLSCO
• 2008-07-10 Listed $22,000 RMLS
• 2004-05-11 Sold (MLS) $52,000 MLSCO
• 2004-03-23 Listed $55,000 MLSCO
• 2003-07-07 Listed $49,900 MLSCO
• 2001-08-30 Sold (MLS) $39,500 MLSCO
• 2001-07-06 Listed $39,500 MLSCO
• 1998-07-28 Listed $38,000 MLSCO
• 1998-05-04 Listed $42,500 MLSCO
• 1985-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $34,900 Public Records
• 1983-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $45,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,828 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.