11209 Mobile Dr · George Mason, VA 22030

$69,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 689 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

Built 1987 Good condition $101/sqft · 87% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover your ideal first home in the heart of Fairfax! Owner-occupants only—no investors. This beautifully remodeled in 2026 single-level residence, features 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom in a prime location. The kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, and there are parking spots available in the driveway. Enjoy the convenience of being within walking distance to shopping centers, restaurants, and essential services. This home offers both a lively lifestyle and easy access. An outdoor shed provides ample storage space, and the community is vibrant, featuring an on-site management office, playground, dog park, and a soccer training area—there's something for everyone!With ground rent at just $1,190, this is a fantastic opportunity to own an affordable home in a great location in Fairfax. Don’t let this chance slip away!

Key facts

• Built 1987
• Listed 76 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#29 in VA, #725 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Fairfax County Public School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #13 of 131 in VA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 92 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,861 units permitted in Fairfax County in 2024 (1,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairfax County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 95.77%
• DSCR: 5.26
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $540,859
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -87.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10929 Milburn St	0.28mi	2/1.0	744 (+8%)	5mo	$470,000	$632	69
4103 Chestnut St	0.39mi	2/1.0	744 (+8%)	0mo	$477,000	$641	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 93.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.12×
• Total profit: $80,606
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 95.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.64×
• Total profit: $169,128
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22030

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,589 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $1,562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,610	-5% $1,586	+0% $1,562	+5% $1,538	+10% $1,514
Rent	-10% $1,357	-5% $1,460	+0% $1,562	+5% $1,664	+10% $1,766
Rate	-1.0pp $1,597	-0.5pp $1,580	base $1,562	+0.5pp $1,544	+1.0pp $1,525

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4040 Gateway Dr Fairfax, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	934	$3,205	$3.43	2d	28	0.35mi
4211 Ridge Top Rd Fairfax, VA	3.0	1.0–2.0	928	$2,718	$2.93	2d	37	0.51mi
3887 Fairfax Ridge Rd Fairfax, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	991	$2,605	$2.63	2d	14	0.82mi
11100 Cavalier Ct Fairfax, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$2,272	$2.27	25d	1	0.91mi
3851 Aristotle Ct Unit 1-312 Fairfax, VA	1.0	1.0	741	$1,800	$2.43	6d	1	0.97mi
3700 Jermantown Rd Fairfax, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1074	$2,655	$2.47	2d	22	0.99mi
10755 Fairgrounds Dr #220 Fairfax, VA	1.0	1.0	744	$2,450	$3.29	25d	1	1.02mi
4457 Oakdale Crescent Ct Fairfax, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1064	$2,517	$2.37	2d	42	1.02mi
11842 Federalist Way Fairfax, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	904	$2,666	$2.95	2d	33	1.16mi
11727 Fairfax Woods Way Fairfax, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,542	$2.55	2d	54	1.28mi
4245 Summit Corner Dr Fairfax, VA	3.0	1.0–2.5	993	$2,822	$2.84	5d	34	1.39mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,900 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,900 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,900 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-04-03
    listed $69,900 Active 855-char remark

    Show marketing remark (855 chars)

    Discover your ideal first home in the heart of Fairfax! Owner-occupants only—no investors. This beautifully remodeled in 2026 single-level residence, features 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom in a prime location. The kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, and there are parking spots available in the driveway. Enjoy the convenience of being within walking distance to shopping centers, restaurants, and essential services. This home offers both a lively lifestyle and easy access. An outdoor shed provides ample storage space, and the community is vibrant, featuring an on-site management office, playground, dog park, and a soccer training area—there's something for everyone!With ground rent at just $1,190, this is a fantastic opportunity to own an affordable home in a great location in Fairfax. Don’t let this chance slip away!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,063
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,485
• − Management: −$2,485
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $18,746
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,499
• After-tax cash flow: $14,244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This remodeled single-level home in George Mason, VA, offers a good condition with modern updates and a prime location. It's move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfax County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101260
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $110,238
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #679
• State rank: #13 of 131 in VA

Livability — George Mason

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #725

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: George Mason, VA
• County: Fairfax County · 1,104,456 people
• City population: 60,855
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 61,332
• Household income: $139,831
• Rent vs Own: 42.1% rent · 57.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1989.0

Population outlook (Fairfax County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,237,259 people
• By 2030: 1,277,758 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,346,508 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 1,397,919 · +13.0%
• By 2075: 1,493,100 · +20.7%
• By 2100: 1,465,712 · +18.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Asian 21% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 6% Korean 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairfax

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.0) · D 66.1% · R 31.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.8pp toward D · 2008: 21.2pp · 2024: 35.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.0 2020: D+41.9 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+19.8 2008: D+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -441.31%
• Current HPI: 297.86
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.64%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS