2512 40th St · Lubbock, TX 79413

$64,950

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1954 7,950 sqft lot $65/sqft · 52% below area ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step inside this unique 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom cinder block home. Property sits far off road with lots of trees for privacy. Comes with fridge and washer/dryer. Backyard is fenced. Extra tall carport for bigger vehicles and storage shed.

Key facts

• Cinder block home
• Lots of trees
• Backyard is fenced

Tags

• CINDER BLOCK HOME
• LOTS OF TREES
• BACKYARD IS FENCED
• EXTRA TALL CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $476 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 183 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $450 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,053 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.43%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,470
• List price: $64,950
• Delta: -52.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $18,551
• Equity at exit: $9,684

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $50,149
• Equity at exit: $5,616

Cash invested: $18,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79413

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,253 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,746/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $476

Break-even live

Break-even rent $650

Max offer price $64,950

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,238
• Closing costs: $1,948
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2521 40th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	902	$1,195	$1.32	21d	1	0.03mi
2521 41st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	990	$925	$0.93	43d	1	0.09mi
2605 41st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	882	$995	$1.13	13d	1	0.11mi
2514 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	943	$950	$1.01	13d	1	0.12mi
2609 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,550	$1.06	21d	1	0.13mi
2508 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,700	$1.14	43d	1	0.20mi
2506 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,550	$1.47	21d	1	0.20mi
2513 43rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	13d	1	0.21mi
2513 43rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	43d	1	0.21mi
2616 37th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	21d	1	0.23mi
2504 44th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	939	$995	$1.06	43d	1	0.25mi
2607 44th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	988	$1,325	$1.34	43d	1	0.28mi
2701 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	802	$1,195	$1.49	13d	1	0.29mi
2712 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1136	$1,300	$1.14	43d	1	0.29mi
2611 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	43d	1	0.29mi
2400 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,225	$1.21	13d	23	0.30mi
2304 39th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	830	$1,150	$1.39	21d	1	0.33mi
2302 40th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	793	$749	$0.94	21d	1	0.33mi
2706 44th St Apt C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$680	$0.76	43d	1	0.34mi
2701 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	657	$1,075	$1.64	13d	25	0.35mi
2723 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	802	$950	$1.18	21d	1	0.36mi
2408 35th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1072	$995	$0.93	21d	1	0.36mi
2409 45th St Unit 8 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$895	$1.12	43d	1	0.37mi
2801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,700	$1.87	43d	1	0.37mi
2816 40th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	826	$825	$1.00	21d	1	0.38mi
2401 45th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	680	$845	$1.24	13d	3	0.39mi
2412 46th St Apt A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	945	$795	$0.84	21d	1	0.40mi
2812 43rd St Unit 6 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1104	$700	$0.63	43d	1	0.41mi
2812 43rd St Unit 7 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1104	$750	$0.68	21d	1	0.41mi
2406 46th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	943	$775	$0.82	21d	1	0.41mi
2402 46th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	942	$745	$0.79	21d	1	0.42mi
2217 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1284	$1,109	$0.86	13d	1	0.43mi
2906 43rd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	870	$850	$0.98	21d	1	0.44mi
2815 43rd St Unit 11 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1085	$800	$0.74	21d	1	0.44mi
2420 33rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$799	$1.00	21d	1	0.48mi
2316 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	21d	1	0.50mi
4609 Belton Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	751	$800	$1.07	43d	1	0.52mi
2208 35th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	767	$750	$0.98	43d	1	0.54mi
3019 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,250	$1.19	21d	1	0.54mi
4613 Belton Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	734	$750	$1.02	43d	1	0.55mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   Step inside this unique 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom cinder block home. Property sits far off road with lots of trees for privacy. Comes with fridge and washer/dryer. Backyard is fenced. Extra tall carport for bigger vehicles and storage shed.

2. 2026-04-30
   price $64,950 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   Step inside this unique 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom cinder block home. Property sits far off road with lots of trees for privacy. Comes with fridge and washer/dryer. Backyard is fenced. Extra tall carport for bigger vehicles and storage shed.

3. 2026-04-22
   status Active 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   Step inside this unique 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom cinder block home. Property sits far off road with lots of trees for privacy. Comes with fridge and washer/dryer. Backyard is fenced. Extra tall carport for bigger vehicles and storage shed.

4. 2026-04-16
   status Pending 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   Step inside this unique 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom cinder block home. Property sits far off road with lots of trees for privacy. Comes with fridge and washer/dryer. Backyard is fenced. Extra tall carport for bigger vehicles and storage shed.

5. 2026-04-15
   price $74,950 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   Step inside this unique 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom cinder block home. Property sits far off road with lots of trees for privacy. Comes with fridge and washer/dryer. Backyard is fenced. Extra tall carport for bigger vehicles and storage shed.

6. 2026-03-02
   listed $79,950 Active 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   Step inside this unique 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom cinder block home. Property sits far off road with lots of trees for privacy. Comes with fridge and washer/dryer. Backyard is fenced. Extra tall carport for bigger vehicles and storage shed.

7. 2004-12-01
   soldstatus
8. 1982-11-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,746 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,746 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,638
• − Property taxes: −$1,746
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,202
• − Management: −$1,202
• − Depreciation: −$1,889
• Taxable income: $5,027
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,207
• After-tax cash flow: $4,510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,343
• Household income: $69,400
• Rent vs Own: 43.9% rent · 56.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 18% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.52%
• Current HPI: 239.8854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $64,950 LARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $74,950 LARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $79,950 LARMLS
• 2004-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1982-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,746 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.