5234 Ripplebrook Dr · Houston, TX 77045

$196,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,292 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 331 Days on market

Built 1958 7,078 sqft lot $152/sqft · at area comps Est $194k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is the largest home in the portfolio, featuring four bedrooms and two living areas, making it highly attractive to families and long-term tenants. The home was completely rebuilt in 2018, including all new electrical and plumbing systems, roof, siding, exterior paint, flooring, and full interior finishes, ensuring modern construction standards and minimal near-term repair expense. Condition & Value-Add: With the major systems and interior recently renovated, this property requires no significant improvements, providing immediate income stability. Future value enhancement could come from modest cosmetic upgrades or lease adjustments at renewal.

Key facts

• Completely rebuilt
• New siding
• New exterior paint

Tags

• COMPLETELY REBUILT
• NEW ROOF
• NEW SIDING
• NEW EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• FULL INTERIOR FINISHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $196k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Grissom El (math 6% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,225 of 4,322 statewide, top 98%, 467 students, 95% FRL); Lawson Middle (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,274 students, 96% FRL); Madison H S (math 9% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,537 of 1,632 statewide, top 94%, 1,924 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 331 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $89k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,480 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 331 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.68%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,955
• List price: $196,000
• Delta: 1.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14023 Rosecrest Dr	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,286 (-0%)	6mo	$115,000	$89	82
5130 Ripplebrook Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,375 (+6%)	1mo	$205,000	$149	74
5127 Ripplebrook Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,332 (+3%)	11mo	$249,999	$188	74
5015 Heatherbloom Dr	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,328 (+3%)	7mo	$126,000	$95	70
13918 Santa Teresa Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,348 (+4%)	18mo	$160,000	$119	69
13926 Candleshade Ln	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,380 (+7%)	16mo	$172,000	$125	64
5611 Tidewater Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+2%)	3mo	$227,500	$172	59
5322 Knotty Oaks Trl	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+0%)	17mo	$235,000	$181	58
5706 Heatherbloom Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,241 (-4%)	6mo	$270,000	$218	53
14027 Candleshade Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+14%)	13mo	$190,000	$129	48
5519 Coastal Way	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,138 (-12%)	6mo	$219,000	$192	45
5914 Dream Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+12%)	1mo	$219,000	$152	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-44,543
• Equity at exit: $29,224

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-68,018
• Equity at exit: $16,946

Cash invested: $54,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77045

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,732 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,028
• Tax from tax record: −$381 /mo · $4,574/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,887

Max offer price $174,317

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-12	-5% $-67	+0% $-123	+5% $-178	+10% $-234
Rent	-10% $-260	-5% $-191	+0% $-123	+5% $-54	+10% $14
Rate	-1.0pp $-24	-0.5pp $-73	base $-123	+0.5pp $-174	+1.0pp $-225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,000
• Closing costs: $5,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5234 Jorns St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,599	$1.26	24d	1	0.19mi
6023 Heatherbrook Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,899	$1.29	1d	1	0.86mi
5205 Allum Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,468	$1.29	45d	1	1.01mi
13003 Brentlawn Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1731	$1,380	$0.80	16d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $196,000 Active 331 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $196,000 Active 328 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $196,000 Active 327 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $196,000 Active 326 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $196,000 Active 325 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $196,000 Active 323 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $196,000 Active 319 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $196,000 Active 318 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $196,000 Active 317 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $196,000 Active 314 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $196,000 Active 311 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $196,000 Active 310 DOM
13. 2025-11-04
    price $196,000 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    This property is the largest home in the portfolio, featuring four bedrooms and two living areas, making it highly attractive to families and long-term tenants. The home was completely rebuilt in 2018, including all new electrical and plumbing systems, roof, siding, exterior paint, flooring, and full interior finishes, ensuring modern construction standards and minimal near-term repair expense. Condition & Value-Add: With the major systems and interior recently renovated, this property requires no significant improvements, providing immediate income stability. Future value enhancement could come from modest cosmetic upgrades or lease adjustments at renewal.

14. 2025-10-01
    price $210,000 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    This property is the largest home in the portfolio, featuring four bedrooms and two living areas, making it highly attractive to families and long-term tenants. The home was completely rebuilt in 2018, including all new electrical and plumbing systems, roof, siding, exterior paint, flooring, and full interior finishes, ensuring modern construction standards and minimal near-term repair expense. Condition & Value-Add: With the major systems and interior recently renovated, this property requires no significant improvements, providing immediate income stability. Future value enhancement could come from modest cosmetic upgrades or lease adjustments at renewal.

15. 2025-07-29
    price $225,000 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    This property is the largest home in the portfolio, featuring four bedrooms and two living areas, making it highly attractive to families and long-term tenants. The home was completely rebuilt in 2018, including all new electrical and plumbing systems, roof, siding, exterior paint, flooring, and full interior finishes, ensuring modern construction standards and minimal near-term repair expense. Condition & Value-Add: With the major systems and interior recently renovated, this property requires no significant improvements, providing immediate income stability. Future value enhancement could come from modest cosmetic upgrades or lease adjustments at renewal.

16. 2025-07-25
    listed $285,000 Active 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    This property is the largest home in the portfolio, featuring four bedrooms and two living areas, making it highly attractive to families and long-term tenants. The home was completely rebuilt in 2018, including all new electrical and plumbing systems, roof, siding, exterior paint, flooring, and full interior finishes, ensuring modern construction standards and minimal near-term repair expense. Condition & Value-Add: With the major systems and interior recently renovated, this property requires no significant improvements, providing immediate income stability. Future value enhancement could come from modest cosmetic upgrades or lease adjustments at renewal.

17. 2020-10-02
    soldstatus
18. 2018-10-31
    historical
19. 2018-09-25
    status Active
20. 2018-08-17
    historical
21. 2018-07-30
    listed $129,997 Active
22. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,574 · $381/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,574 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,979
• − Property taxes: −$4,574
• − Insurance: −$980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,662
• − Management: −$1,662
• − Depreciation: −$5,702
• Taxable loss: −$4,781
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,147
• After-tax cash flow: $-326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,563
• Household income: $59,688
• Rent vs Own: 38.9% rent · 61.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% Black 37% Two or more races 25% White 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Ukrainian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 49% Arabic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.49%
• Current HPI: 282.5426
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+50.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $196,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-25 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2020-10-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-09-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-08-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-07-30 Listed $129,997 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,574 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.