The Tyler Plan · Newport, NC 28570

$381,300

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,943 sqft · SingleFamily · 436 Days on market

Good condition $25/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Garage service door
• Rear covered porch
• Dual vanities

Tags

• OUTDOOR PORCH
• PASS-THROUGH FROM KITCHEN
• GAS FIREPLACE
• GARAGE SERVICE DOOR
• DUAL VANITIES
• REAR COVERED PORCH

🏗️ New construction. The $381,300 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $389,385.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $381k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12k ($145k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $381k).
• Recommended offer: $336k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 43.6% vs local median 28.3% in Newport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#385 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Carteret County Public Schools (rural): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #31 of 178 in NC (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Newport Elementary (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D-, #542 of 1,410 statewide, top 39%, 645 students, 100% FRL); Newport Middle (math 39% / reading 56%, grade C-, #140 of 475 statewide, top 30%, 378 students, 98% FRL); West Carteret High (math 82% / reading 71%, grade A-, #89 of 535 statewide, top 16%, 1,146 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 39% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 321 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 935 units permitted in Carteret County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $18,768/mo this rent would consume 321% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carteret County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 436 days — a 12% lower offer ($336k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $335,544 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 436 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 133.29%
• DSCR: 6.93
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $389,385
• List price: $381,300
• Delta: -2.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
251 Patriot Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,878 (-3%)	2mo	$389,000	$207	85
265 Independence Blvd	0.25mi	3/2.5	2,054 (+6%)	1mo	$375,000	$183	78
227 Independence Blvd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,770 (-9%)	3mo	$335,000	$189	73
114 Duncan Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	2,014 (+4%)	4mo	$381,560	$189	72
318 Independence Blvd	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,870 (-4%)	6mo	$370,000	$198	69
251 Independence Blvd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,777 (-8%)	6mo	$320,000	$180	68
143 Tradition Trl	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,796 (-8%)	5mo	$376,475	$210	66
223 Independence Blvd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,706 (-12%)	10mo	$375,000	$220	62
125 Tradition Trl	0.51mi	3/2.0	2,054 (+6%)	8mo	$395,000	$192	58
141 Tradition Trl	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,807 (-7%)	6mo	$397,059	$220	56
144 Tradition Trl	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,807 (-7%)	9mo	$394,479	$218	56
119 Tradition Trl	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,807 (-7%)	9mo	$374,255	$207	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.50×
• Total profit: $708,530
• Equity at exit: $58,059

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.78×
• Total profit: $1,611,396
• Equity at exit: $33,667

Cash invested: $109,028 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 14 active · 23 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.3 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $360,900 ($190/sqft)
• Median days on market: 291 d
• This list price: 71% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 28570

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $18,768 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,042
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$487 /mo · $5,841/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,941
• Net cashflow: $12,111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,438

Max offer price $389,385

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $12,380	-5% $12,245	+0% $12,111	+5% $11,976	+10% $11,841
Rent	-10% $10,628	-5% $11,369	+0% $12,111	+5% $12,852	+10% $13,593
Rate	-1.0pp $12,307	-0.5pp $12,210	base $12,111	+0.5pp $12,010	+1.0pp $11,907

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,346
• Closing costs: $11,682
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
602 Villa CV Newport, NC	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,950	$1.50	5d	1	0.67mi
312 Kathryn Ct Newport, NC	3.0	2.0	1395	$1,795	$1.29	5d	1	1.20mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $371,300Status: Active
• HOA & community: Association fee $25

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction planInventory type: Plan
• Exterior features: Address: 175 Independence Blvd, Newport NC 28570

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan name: The TylerLiving area approximately 1943

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $381,300 Active 436 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $381,300 Active 435 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $381,300 Active 433 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $381,300 Active 432 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $381,300 Active 431 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $381,300 Active 430 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $381,300 Active 429 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $381,300 Active 428 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $381,300 Active 427 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $381,300 Active 426 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $381,300 Active 425 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $381,300 Active 424 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $381,300 Active 418 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $381,300 Active 417 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $381,300 Active 416 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $381,300 Active 415 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $381,300 Active 412 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $381,300 Active 411 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $381,300 Active 410 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $381,300 Active 409 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $381,300 Active 408 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $381,300 Active 407 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $381,300 Active 406 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $381,300 Active 405 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $381,300 Active 404 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $381,300 Active 403 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $381,300 Active 402 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $381,300 Active 401 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $381,300 Active 400 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $381,300 Active 399 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $381,300 Active 398 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $381,300 Active 397 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $381,300 Active 396 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $381,300 Active 395 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $381,300 Active 394 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $381,300 Active 393 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $381,300 Active 392 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $381,300 Active 391 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $381,300 Active 390 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $381,300 Active 389 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $381,300 Active 388 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $381,300 Active 387 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $381,300 Active 386 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $381,300 Active 385 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $381,300 Active 382 DOM
46. 2026-07-29
    days on market $381,300 Active 380 DOM
47. 2026-07-27
    days on market $381,300 Active 378 DOM
48. 2026-07-25
    days on market $381,300 Active 376 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $381,300 Active 374 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $381,300 Active 373 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $225,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,812
• − Property taxes: −$5,841
• − Insurance: −$1,947
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$18,017
• − Management: −$18,017
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$11,328
• Taxable income: $147,952
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$35,508
• After-tax cash flow: $109,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It has a good curb appeal and could benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping improvements to increase its value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good Flooring carpet Counters granite

Deferred maintenance Est. $10,000–$30,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No visible signs of wear or damage to the roof.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — Improves living space and resale value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Newport Elementary D- NC #542/1,410 Nat'l #15,452/41,679 Middle Newport Middle C- NC #140/475 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High West Carteret High A- NC #89/535 Nat'l #1,465/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carteret County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700630
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,330
• Composite: 50.92/100
• National rank: #1786
• State rank: #31 of 178 in NC

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Newport

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #15094

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newport, NC
• County: Carteret County · 73,443 people
• City population: 22,197
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• Population (ZIP): 22,197
• Household income: $70,229
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Carteret County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,443 people
• By 2030: 75,344 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 78,142 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 80,091 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 86,120 · +17.3%
• By 2100: 89,408 · +21.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Carteret

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.0% · R 71.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -34.7pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+42.0 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+34.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.54%
• Current HPI: 276.6589
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $371,300Status: Active
• HOA & community: Association fee $25

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction planInventory type: Plan
• Exterior features: Address: 175 Independence Blvd, Newport NC 28570

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan name: The TylerLiving area approximately 1943