1411 Hand Ave · Bay Minette, AL 36507

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,374 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1955 0.57 ac lot $138/sqft · 16% below area Est $225k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Easy to show! This warm and cozy 3/2 home is ready for your family! Features include new heat pump window units, 4 year old roof, one car garage, detached 3 car carports, new walk in shower in master bath, wood and tile flooring, smooth ceilings, new 12 x 24 back deck, fenced back yard, new plumbing and electrical, open kitchen with breakfast area, and more! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• 0.57 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1955

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.9% in Bay Minette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#179 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: crime D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $190k implies a 375% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,051 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.26%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,042
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -15.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 W 15th St	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,359 (-1%)	14mo	$219,500	$162	83
1403 N Day Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+3%)	3mo	$225,000	$159	76
1800 Elaine Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,463 (+6%)	6mo	$170,000	$116	68
104 E 13th St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+10%)	8mo	$275,000	$182	68
302 Norwood Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,521 (+11%)	10mo	$225,000	$148	68
101 W 15th St	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,208 (-12%)	14mo	$237,000	$196	67
1610 Elaine Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-14%)	2mo	$225,000	$191	64
1606 Clark Ave	0.56mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,404 (+2%)	1mo	$226,000	$161	62
906 N Hoyle Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+6%)	11mo	$235,000	$161	58
502 W 8th St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+7%)	2mo	$240,000	$163	57
108 E 6th St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,447 (+5%)	12mo	$165,000	$114	48
610 W 7th St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+10%)	15mo	$248,000	$164	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-18,728
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-721
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36507

• Home prices YoY: -7.2%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,848/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,661

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $320	-5% $254	+0% $189	+5% $123	+10% $57
Rent	-10% $39	-5% $114	+0% $189	+5% $264	+10% $339
Rate	-1.0pp $284	-0.5pp $237	base $189	+0.5pp $139	+1.0pp $89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
301 Petty Ln Bay Minette, AL	2.0–3.0	3.0	1350	$1,900	$1.41	22d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 415-char remark

   Show marketing remark (415 chars)

   Easy to show! This warm and cozy 3/2 home is ready for your family! Features include new heat pump window units, 4 year old roof, one car garage, detached 3 car carports, new walk in shower in master bath, wood and tile flooring, smooth ceilings, new 12 x 24 back deck, fenced back yard, new plumbing and electrical, open kitchen with breakfast area, and more! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

2. 2026-04-14
   listed $189,900 Active 415-char remark

   Show marketing remark (415 chars)

   Easy to show! This warm and cozy 3/2 home is ready for your family! Features include new heat pump window units, 4 year old roof, one car garage, detached 3 car carports, new walk in shower in master bath, wood and tile flooring, smooth ceilings, new 12 x 24 back deck, fenced back yard, new plumbing and electrical, open kitchen with breakfast area, and more! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

3. 1998-10-23
   soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,848
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,824
• − Management: −$1,824
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$808
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$194
• After-tax cash flow: $2,458/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Bay Minette

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #179
• US rank: #15153

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay Minette, AL
• Population (ZIP): 20,350

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.62%
• Current HPI: 329.316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+374.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — BCAR
• 2026-04-14 Listed $189,900 BCAR
• 1998-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $171 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.