1401 Provincetown Cir · Lutz, FL 33549

$299,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,205 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1979 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MULTIPLE OFFERS RECEIVED! INVESTOR SPECIAL / CASH BUYERS ONLY! Exceptional modern design potential awaits in this high-upside Lutz flip project! Tucked away on a premium, oversized . 34-acre cul-de-sac lot with peaceful water views, this striking 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom two-story home features zero HOA or CDD restrictions. From the street, the home’s soaring, vaulted roofline provides an immediate contemporary edge, offering incredible curb appeal for a high-end modern exterior renovation. Inside, the layout is highly functional and incredibly rare for this era. The footprint is anchored by an expansive great room centered around a massive, floor-to-ceiling rustic stone fireplace&mdash

Key facts

• Peaceful water views
• Expansive great room
• 0.34 acre lot

Tags

• PREMIUM OVERSIZED LOT
• PEACEFUL WATER VIEWS
• NO HOA OR CDD RESTRICTIONS
• SOARING VAULTED ROOFLINE
• INCREDIBLE CURB APPEAL
• EXPANSIVE GREAT ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.34 acres (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Homestead exemption indicated
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two stories; Home faces southeast; Fixer condition
• Construction: Built with block, metal frame, stucco and wood siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private in-ground pool with deck; In county lot with sidewalk and paved access; Asphalt/paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance details listed
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace in the living room; No additional interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Dedicated laundry room; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $427 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#327 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Maniscalco K-8 School (math 60% / reading 58%, grade B-, #722 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 646 students, 43% FRL); Freedom High School (math 23% / reading 39%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,837 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 129 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $147k; list at $300k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $299,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.09%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-30,353
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-25,882
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33549

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,034 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$272 /mo · $3,266/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$637
• Net cashflow: $427

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,494

Max offer price $299,999

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1511 McCrea Dr Lutz, FL	4.0	2.0	2060	$3,195	$1.55	3d	1	0.42mi
2509 Rustic Ridge Loop Unit 1028633P Lutz, FL	4.0	4.0	1657	$3,811	$2.30	17d	1	1.29mi
2511 Rustic Ridge Loop Unit 1018135P Lutz, FL	4.0	4.0	1646	$2,858	$1.74	14d	1	1.30mi
2507 Rustic Ridge Loop Unit 1295167P Lutz, FL	4.0	4.0	1689	$2,971	$1.76	15d	1	1.31mi
16013 Stags Leap Dr Lutz, FL	4.0	3.5	2082	$3,800	$1.83	24d	1	1.31mi
2601 Rustic Ridge Loop Unit 1028637P Lutz, FL	4.0	4.0	1657	$3,379	$2.04	13d	1	1.33mi
2604 Rustic Ridge Loop Unit 1295163P Lutz, FL	4.0	4.0	1689	$2,822	$1.67	15d	1	1.33mi
17499 Hanna Rd Lutz, FL	3.0	2.0	1430	$2,250	$1.57	24d	1	1.35mi
15105 Buckhorn Ct Unit 1295159P Lutz, FL	4.0	4.0	1689	$2,519	$1.49	5d	1	1.40mi
2505 Black Horse Loop Unit 1295158P Lutz, FL	4.0	4.0	1689	$2,374	$1.41	13d	1	1.40mi
2503 Black Horse Loop Unit 1295171P Lutz, FL	4.0	4.0	1689	$3,061	$1.81	13d	1	1.42mi
15115 Buckhorn Ct Unit 1295156P Lutz, FL	4.0	4.0	1657	$2,476	$1.49	13d	1	1.42mi
15101 Buckhorn Ct Unit 1295164P Lutz, FL	4.0	4.0	1689	$2,427	$1.44	14d	1	1.44mi
1908 E 148th Ave Lutz, FL	3.0	1.0	1400	$750	$0.54	24d	1	1.45mi
15001 Caribou Ct Unit 1018146P Lutz, FL	4.0	4.0	1646	$2,474	$1.50	16d	1	1.47mi
2602 Cabin Ct Unit 1295170P Lutz, FL	4.0	4.0	1689	$3,300	$1.95	16d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-10
   remarks 693-char remark
2. 2026-06-10
   status $299,999 Pending 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   remarks 687-char remark
4. 2026-06-08
   listed $299,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,266 · $272/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,266 · $272/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,409
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$3,266
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,913
• − Management: −$2,913
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable income: $286
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$69
• After-tax cash flow: $5,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lutz

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #327
• US rank: #5741

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lutz, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 79,141
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,178
• Household income: $89,343
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 359.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 16% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Russian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.66%
• Current HPI: 297.9231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.32%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+181.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $299,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $147,000 Public Records
• 1997-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $135,500 Public Records
• 1988-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $106,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,266 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.