3509 Turner Village Dr · Austin, TX 78610

$284,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,623 sqft · Land · 162 Days on market

Built 2025 $176/sqft · 6% above area Est $270k · 6% over $127/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new, energy-efficient home available by February 2026! The Bonnell's covered patio extends the living space outside. Upstairs, secondary bedrooms share a jack-and-jill bathroom. A convenient second-floor laundry simplifies the chore. Turner's Village offers beautiful two-story townhomes in the master-planned community of Turner’s Crossing, located just 20 minutes from downtown Austin. Residents can enjoy a swimming pool, playground, trails, and lots of green space. With easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment in Buda and south Austin, this is the perfect community to call home. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

Key facts

• Second-floor laundry
• Swimming pool
• Covered patio

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• JACK-AND-JILL BATHROOM
• SECOND-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• SWIMMING POOL
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT FEATURES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-311 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1002 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,123 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.68%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,701
• List price: $284,990
• Delta: 5.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-72,456
• Equity at exit: $42,493

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-113,505
• Equity at exit: $24,641

Cash invested: $79,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78610

• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1002
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,231 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$334 /mo · $4,006/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$127
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,625

Max offer price $229,977

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,248
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12809 Village Spun Plz Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1755	$2,000	$1.14	24d	1	0.08mi
6401 Mallord Brook Bnd Buda, TX	4.0	2.5	2072	$2,900	$1.40	44d	1	0.15mi
13107 Barrister Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1591	$2,200	$1.38	44d	1	0.19mi
13013 Barrister Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1591	$2,050	$1.29	44d	1	0.22mi
12309 Dairywork Rd Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$2,300	$1.36	44d	1	0.62mi
11633 Lago de Garda Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,995	$1.32	44d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $127 · $1,524/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $284,990 Pending 162 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $284,990 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $284,990 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $284,990 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $284,990 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $284,990 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $284,990 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $284,990 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $284,990 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-04-29
    price $284,990 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Brand new, energy-efficient home available by February 2026! The Bonnell's covered patio extends the living space outside. Upstairs, secondary bedrooms share a jack-and-jill bathroom. A convenient second-floor laundry simplifies the chore. Turner's Village offers beautiful two-story townhomes in the master-planned community of Turner’s Crossing, located just 20 minutes from downtown Austin. Residents can enjoy a swimming pool, playground, trails, and lots of green space. With easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment in Buda and south Austin, this is the perfect community to call home. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

11. 2026-04-25
    status Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Bonnell's covered patio extends the living space outside. Upstairs, secondary bedrooms share a jack-and-jill bathroom. Gray cabinets with ashen white granite countertops, cool beige EVP flooring, and warm grey carpet in our Clarity package.

12. 2026-04-25
    historical 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Bonnell's covered patio extends the living space outside. Upstairs, secondary bedrooms share a jack-and-jill bathroom. Gray cabinets with ashen white granite countertops, cool beige EVP flooring, and warm grey carpet in our Clarity package.

13. 2026-03-25
    price $284,990 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Bonnell's covered patio extends the living space outside. Upstairs, secondary bedrooms share a jack-and-jill bathroom. Gray cabinets with ashen white granite countertops, cool beige EVP flooring, and warm grey carpet in our Clarity package.

14. 2026-03-05
    price $299,990 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Bonnell's covered patio extends the living space outside. Upstairs, secondary bedrooms share a jack-and-jill bathroom. Gray cabinets with ashen white granite countertops, cool beige EVP flooring, and warm grey carpet in our Clarity package.

15. 2026-03-04
    price $299,990 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Brand new, energy-efficient home available by February 2026! The Bonnell's covered patio extends the living space outside. Upstairs, secondary bedrooms share a jack-and-jill bathroom. A convenient second-floor laundry simplifies the chore. Turner's Village offers beautiful two-story townhomes in the master-planned community of Turner’s Crossing, located just 20 minutes from downtown Austin. Residents can enjoy a swimming pool, playground, trails, and lots of green space. With easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment in Buda and south Austin, this is the perfect community to call home. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

16. 2026-02-11
    status Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Brand new, energy-efficient home available by February 2026! The Bonnell's covered patio extends the living space outside. Upstairs, secondary bedrooms share a jack-and-jill bathroom. A convenient second-floor laundry simplifies the chore. Turner's Village offers beautiful two-story townhomes in the master-planned community of Turner’s Crossing, located just 20 minutes from downtown Austin. Residents can enjoy a swimming pool, playground, trails, and lots of green space. With easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment in Buda and south Austin, this is the perfect community to call home. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

17. 2026-02-11
    price $303,990 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Brand new, energy-efficient home available by February 2026! The Bonnell's covered patio extends the living space outside. Upstairs, secondary bedrooms share a jack-and-jill bathroom. A convenient second-floor laundry simplifies the chore. Turner's Village offers beautiful two-story townhomes in the master-planned community of Turner’s Crossing, located just 20 minutes from downtown Austin. Residents can enjoy a swimming pool, playground, trails, and lots of green space. With easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment in Buda and south Austin, this is the perfect community to call home. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

18. 2026-02-11
    price $303,990 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Brand new, energy-efficient home available by February 2026! The Bonnell's covered patio extends the living space outside. Upstairs, secondary bedrooms share a jack-and-jill bathroom. A convenient second-floor laundry simplifies the chore. Turner's Village offers beautiful two-story townhomes in the master-planned community of Turner’s Crossing, located just 20 minutes from downtown Austin. Residents can enjoy a swimming pool, playground, trails, and lots of green space. With easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment in Buda and south Austin, this is the perfect community to call home. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

19. 2025-12-29
    listed $304,140 Active 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Brand new, energy-efficient home available by February 2026! The Bonnell's covered patio extends the living space outside. Upstairs, secondary bedrooms share a jack-and-jill bathroom. A convenient second-floor laundry simplifies the chore. Turner's Village offers beautiful two-story townhomes in the master-planned community of Turner’s Crossing, located just 20 minutes from downtown Austin. Residents can enjoy a swimming pool, playground, trails, and lots of green space. With easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment in Buda and south Austin, this is the perfect community to call home. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

20. 2025-10-24
    historical 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Bonnell's covered patio extends the living space outside. Upstairs, secondary bedrooms share a jack-and-jill bathroom. Gray cabinets with ashen white granite countertops, cool beige EVP flooring, and warm grey carpet in our Clarity package.

21. 2025-10-22
    listed $304,140 Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    The Bonnell's covered patio extends the living space outside. Upstairs, secondary bedrooms share a jack-and-jill bathroom. Gray cabinets with ashen white granite countertops, cool beige EVP flooring, and warm grey carpet in our Clarity package.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,006 · $334/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,215 · $435/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,209/yr (+$101/mo · 30.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,775
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$4,006
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,142
• − Management: −$2,142
• − HOA: −$1,524
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$8,719
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,092
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,319
• Household income: $119,698
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.50%
• Current HPI: 220.6824
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.80%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $284,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-25 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $284,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $299,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $299,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-11 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $303,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $303,990 Unlock MLS
• 2025-12-29 Listed $304,140 Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-24 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-22 Listed $304,140 Zillow

Property tax history

+842.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,006 · +842.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.