2604 Waterford Way · Palmetto, FL 34221

$230,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Other · 13 Days on market

Built 2003 Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This pristine 2 bedroom 2 bath condo is in a gated and maintenance-free community. This home features an oversized detached one car garage leading to the home courtyard. This home features a spacious eat in kitchen, dining room, large master bedroom and large en suite and double vanity sinks. This home offers a natural bright open floor plan that leads out to a screened in and covered lanai overlooking the golf course and lake views.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Home courtyard
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• MAINTENANCE-FREE COMMUNITY
• DETACHED GARAGE
• HOME COURTYARD
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• SCREENED LANAI

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $230k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.0% in Palmetto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#346 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.94%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-28,186
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-30,877
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,416 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$288 /mo · $3,450/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,096

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2320 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #211 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	978	$2,500	$2.56	23d	1	0.14mi
1514 Fairway Oaks Dr Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,540	$1.05	10d	1	0.20mi
2225 14th Ave W Unit 201 Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,275	$1.47	23d	1	0.24mi
2225 14th Ave W Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,895	$1.69	23d	1	0.24mi
2225 14th Ave W Unit 204 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,795	$1.60	23d	1	0.24mi
2602 Edgewater Ct Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1253	$4,000	$3.19	23d	1	0.29mi
3115 Live Oak Ln #30 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1253	$3,695	$2.95	23d	1	0.31mi
2625 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #401 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1349	$3,495	$2.59	23d	1	0.35mi
2625 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #802 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$2,395	$2.09	23d	1	0.35mi
2725 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #201 Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,200	$1.48	3d	1	0.35mi
2725 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #102 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1256	$2,200	$1.75	16d	1	0.35mi
2725 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #203 Palmetto, FL	1.0	2.0	1106	$3,200	$2.89	23d	1	0.35mi
3222 6th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,185	$1.55	23d	1	0.76mi
1213 15th St W Palmetto, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	23d	1	0.81mi
1229 11th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	1.0	1072	$1,800	$1.68	2d	1	0.98mi
1809 5th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	1.0	962	$1,895	$1.97	23d	1	0.99mi
4207 5th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$3,000	$1.72	23d	1	1.24mi
307 27th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$2,000	$2.04	23d	1	1.27mi
1715 9th St W Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,000	$1.81	23d	1	1.27mi
1213 31st Ave W Palmetto, FL	2.0	1.5	880	$1,475	$1.68	23d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $230,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    remarks 438-char remark
11. 2026-06-08
    listed $230,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,450
• − Insurance: −$1,948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,319
• − Management: −$2,319
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$620
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$149
• After-tax cash flow: $3,180/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including roof replacement, exterior siding repair, and painting. Upgrading the HVAC system and improving the landscaping will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be old and possibly leaking.
• Major exterior siding — The siding and paint appear to be peeling and in need of repainting.
• Major interior walls and paint — The condition of the exterior suggests it may be in need of repainting.
• Major systems — The condition of the exterior suggests they may be outdated or in need of maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint will improve the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the property more attractive to buyers and renters.
• Both repairing the roof and exterior siding — These repairs will address the most pressing issues and improve the property's overall condition, making it more marketable.
• Both upgrading the HVAC system — An updated HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the property more attractive to buyers and renters.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained and attractive exterior will enhance the property's curb appeal and make it more appealing to potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof appears to be old and possibly leaking.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The siding and paint appear to be peeling and in need of repainting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls and paint · The condition of the exterior suggests it may be in need of repainting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · The condition of the exterior suggests they may be outdated or in need of maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint will improve the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the property more attractive to buyers and renters. ↑
• Both repairing the roof and exterior siding — These repairs will address the most pressing issues and improve the property's overall condition, making it more marketable. ↑
• Both upgrading the HVAC system — An updated HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the property more attractive to buyers and renters. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained and attractive exterior will enhance the property's curb appeal and make it more appealing to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palmetto

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #5695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmetto, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $230,000 FSBO.com