W11565 Archer Ln · Stephenson, WI 54114

$155,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Other · 12 Days on market

Built 1974 0.39 ac lot $258/sqft · 34% below area Est $235k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELL KEPT, NEWLY REMODELED COTTAGE SET ON LANDSCAPED LOT MINUTES FROM HIGH FALLS FLOWAGE. THIS COTTAGE OFFERS SPACIOUS ROOMS AND UPDATED FL0ORING & FIXTURES THRU OUT. NEAR WINTER ATV/SNOWMOBILE TRAIL

Key facts

• Paved archer lane
• Drilled well
• 0.39 acre lot

Tags

• DRILLED WELL
• 1000 GALLON SEPTIC SYSTEM
• UTV AND SNOWMOBILE ACCESS
• PAVED ARCHER LANE
• INSULATED BLOCK CRAWL SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Some furnishings to remain for seller's convenience; Seller's personal property excluded

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well; Private septic system
• Home design: Single-family, 1-story home; Built (year per assessor/public record)
• Construction: Less than 1/2 acre lot (0.39 acre)
• Exterior features: Aluminum trim; Vinyl exterior; Trailer/RV parking allowed; Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace; LP (liquid propane) gas heat
• Interior features: Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-601/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (28.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crivitz School District (rural): math 38% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #225 of 342 in WI (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crivitz Elementary (math 32% / reading 30%, grade F, #701 of 1,041 statewide, top 67%, 468 students, 44% FRL); Crivitz Middle (math 47% / reading 42%, grade D, #94 of 383 statewide, top 28%, 104 students, 40% FRL); Crivitz High (math 54% / reading 44%, grade D, #36 of 483 statewide, top 9%, 219 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 145 units permitted in Marinette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marinette County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $155k implies a 148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,997 (28.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.38%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,057
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -34.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-28,377
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-29,109
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 54114

• Home prices YoY: -12.5%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,110 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $594/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,173

Max offer price $146,155

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $38	-5% $-6	+0% $-50	+5% $-94	+10% $-138
Rent	-10% $-138	-5% $-94	+0% $-50	+5% $-6	+10% $38
Rate	-1.0pp $28	-0.5pp $-11	base $-50	+0.5pp $-90	+1.0pp $-131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-08
   listed $155,000 Active 747-char remark
2. 2007-10-16
   soldstatus $62,500
3. 2007-10-12
   soldstatus $62,500 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   WELL KEPT, NEWLY REMODELED COTTAGE SET ON LANDSCAPED LOT MINUTES FROM HIGH FALLS FLOWAGE. THIS COTTAGE OFFERS SPACIOUS ROOMS AND UPDATED FL0ORING & FIXTURES THRU OUT. NEAR WINTER ATV/SNOWMOBILE TRAIL

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $594 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,731 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,137/yr (+$95/mo · 191.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,320
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$594
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,066
• − Management: −$1,066
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$3,372
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$809
• After-tax cash flow: $209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crivitz School District
• NCES district ID: 5502970
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,013
• Composite: 30.25/100
• National rank: #6289
• State rank: #225 of 342 in WI

Livability — Stephenson

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,845

Population outlook (Marinette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,716 people
• By 2030: 37,015 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 32,824 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 28,502 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 20,562 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 15,072 · -61.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 5% English 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marinette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 30.4% · R 68.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.9pp toward R · 2008: 6.9pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+34.5 2016: R+33.8 2012: R+3.6 2008: D+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.94%
• Current HPI: 244.7298
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

+148.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — METROMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $155,000 METROMLS
• 2007-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 2007-10-12 Sold (MLS) $62,500 METROMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $594 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.