8203 Annabella's Ln · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32407

$220,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Townhouse public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2006 $157/sqft · 20% below area Est $275k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Annabella's Townhomes, a beautifully maintained gated community that offers low-maintenance living along with exceptional amenities, including a community pool, fitness room, and inviting clubhouse. The main level of this spacious two-bedroom, two-and-a-half-bathroom townhouse features a bright, open floor plan that seamlessly integrates the living and dining areas, kitchen, a half bathroom, and laundry space. The large kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, a generous breakfast bar, a pantry, and an additional storage closet for exceptional organization. Step outside from the kitchen to a large back patio--perfect for morning coffee or casual gatherings with friends and family. Upstairs, the expansive primary suite offers two closets and a private ensuite bathroom with dual vanities and a walk-in shower. The spacious secondary bedroom provides its own walk-in closet and a full ensuite bathroom. Annabella's Townhomes is ideally situated in a prime central location, with convenient access to shopping, dining, entertainment options, top-rated schools, and beautiful beaches.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Large back patio
• Community pool

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• FITNESS ROOM
• INVITING CLUBHOUSE
• LARGE BACK PATIO
• TWO CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-341 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (27.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 702 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $220k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,739 (27.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.66%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,120
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -20.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1602 Annabella'a Way	0.05mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,545 (+10%)	11mo	$275,000	$178	65
8700 Front Beach Rd Unit 5304	0.44mi	2/2.5	1,325 (-6%)	4mo	$259,900	$196	65
8700 Front Beach Rd #4309	0.36mi	2/2.5	1,325 (-6%)	14mo	$290,000	$219	60
8700 Front Beach Rd #4211	0.33mi	2/2.5	1,325 (-6%)	16mo	$283,000	$214	60
8700 Front Beach 5109 Rd #5109	0.43mi	2/2.5	1,325 (-6%)	10mo	$285,000	$215	60
1753 Annabellas Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,596 (+14%)	9mo	$275,000	$172	57
8700 Front Beach Rd #7310	0.42mi	2/2.5	1,325 (-6%)	15mo	$285,000	$215	57
2205 Walosi Way #204	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,299 (-8%)	13mo	$185,000	$142	49
2205 Dorothy Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,374 (-2%)	13mo	$200,000	$146	47
8700 Front Beach Rd #6307	0.35mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,588 (+13%)	12mo	$225,000	$142	41
7583 Shadow Lake Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,496 (+7%)	11mo	$250,000	$167	38
8700 Front Beach Rd #2308	0.45mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,588 (+13%)	13mo	$225,000	$142	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-62,776
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.68×
• Total profit: $-103,463
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32407

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 702
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,924 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,270/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,356

Max offer price $159,739

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-217	-5% $-279	+0% $-341	+5% $-403	+10% $-466
Rent	-10% $-493	-5% $-417	+0% $-341	+5% $-265	+10% $-189
Rate	-1.0pp $-230	-0.5pp $-285	base $-341	+0.5pp $-398	+1.0pp $-456

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1734 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	21d	1	0.06mi
1744 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	13d	1	0.08mi
8551 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,792	$1.86	13d	12	0.12mi
1846 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1404	$1,850	$1.32	21d	1	0.12mi
8700 Front Beach Rd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1543	$2,200	$1.43	13d	2	0.31mi
1609 Vecuna Cir Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$2,100	$1.66	13d	1	0.35mi
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$2,250	$2.07	13d	18	0.42mi
2110 Sterling Cove Blvd Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,800	$1.56	21d	1	0.48mi
2195 Wilkinson St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,940	$1.91	13d	41	0.54mi
2148 Sterling Cove Blvd Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1152	$1,695	$1.47	21d	1	0.58mi
7682 Shadow Lake Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1496	$1,875	$1.25	21d	1	0.62mi
7664 Shadow Lake Dr Unit 1523352P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1539	$3,210	$2.09	13d	1	0.66mi
2216 Anne Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	951	$1,300	$1.37	13d	1	0.71mi
2526 Laurie Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	13d	1	0.76mi
2301 Anne Ave Unit 8901 Laird Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,625	$1.81	13d	1	0.76mi
7110 London St Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1419	$1,900	$1.34	13d	6	0.84mi
140 Treasure Palm Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,350	$1.50	21d	1	0.90mi
2521 Allison Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,450	$1.48	21d	1	1.01mi
2917 Allison Ave Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,700	$1.07	21d	1	1.22mi
410 Foxtail Way Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1676	$2,750	$1.64	21d	1	1.41mi
204 Potters Bluff Dr Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1035	$1,651	$1.60	13d	12	1.43mi
8623 N Lagoon Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1600	$2,350	$1.47	21d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $220,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $220,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $220,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $220,000 Active 38 DOM
18. 2026-04-16
    listed $220,000 Active 1105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1105 chars)

    Welcome to Annabella's Townhomes, a beautifully maintained gated community that offers low-maintenance living along with exceptional amenities, including a community pool, fitness room, and inviting clubhouse. The main level of this spacious two-bedroom, two-and-a-half-bathroom townhouse features a bright, open floor plan that seamlessly integrates the living and dining areas, kitchen, a half bathroom, and laundry space. The large kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, a generous breakfast bar, a pantry, and an additional storage closet for exceptional organization. Step outside from the kitchen to a large back patio--perfect for morning coffee or casual gatherings with friends and family. Upstairs, the expansive primary suite offers two closets and a private ensuite bathroom with dual vanities and a walk-in shower. The spacious secondary bedroom provides its own walk-in closet and a full ensuite bathroom. Annabella's Townhomes is ideally situated in a prime central location, with convenient access to shopping, dining, entertainment options, top-rated schools, and beautiful beaches.

19. 2026-01-20
    historical
20. 2025-10-22
    price $220,000
21. 2025-10-22
    price $220,000
22. 2025-08-27
    price $220,000
23. 2025-08-08
    status Active
24. 2025-08-08
    status Active
25. 2025-07-19
    status Active
26. 2025-07-18
    historical
27. 2025-07-18
    historical
28. 2025-04-22
    status Active
29. 2025-04-22
    status Active
30. 2025-04-22
    listed $230,000 Active
31. 2025-03-11
    historical
32. 2025-03-11
    historical
33. 2024-11-04
    price $230,000
34. 2024-11-04
    price $230,000
35. 2024-11-04
    price $230,000
36. 2024-09-25
    listed $235,000 Active
37. 2024-09-25
    listed $235,000 Active
38. 2024-09-15
    listed $235,000 Active
39. 2023-12-21
    historical
40. 2023-09-12
    price $250,000
41. 2023-09-12
    price $250,000
42. 2023-06-21
    listed $255,000 Active
43. 2023-06-19
    listed $255,000 Active
44. 2018-07-31
    soldstatus $140,000
45. 2018-07-31
    soldstatus $140,000
46. 2018-06-25
    listed $142,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,270 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,270 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$2,270
• − Insurance: −$6,218
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,847
• − Management: −$1,847
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$7,818
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,876
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,404
• Household income: $80,831
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.39%
• Current HPI: 277.8875
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+54.4% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $220,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $220,000 ECAR
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $220,000 NAMLS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $220,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-08-08 Relisted — NAMLS
• 2025-08-08 Relisted — ECAR
• 2025-07-19 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2025-07-18 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2025-07-18 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2025-04-22 Relisted — ECAR
• 2025-04-22 Relisted — NAMLS
• 2025-04-22 Listed $230,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-03-11 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2025-03-11 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2024-11-04 Price Changed $230,000 ECAR
• 2024-11-04 Price Changed $230,000 NAMLS
• 2024-11-04 Price Changed $230,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-09-25 Listed $235,000 NAMLS
• 2024-09-25 Listed $235,000 ECAR
• 2024-09-15 Listed $235,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-12-21 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2023-09-12 Price Changed $250,000 ECAR
• 2023-09-12 Price Changed $250,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-06-21 Listed $255,000 ECAR
• 2023-06-19 Listed $255,000 CPARMLS
• 2018-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-31 Sold (MLS) $140,000 CPARMLS
• 2018-06-25 Listed $142,500 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,270 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.