921 Willow · Malvern, AR 72104

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,950 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1965 0.43 ac lot Est $201k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you are searching for a quality built brick home near I-30 with easy access to Lake Catherine, DeGray Lake, and Lake Hamilton-then you need to take a tour of this 3 Bedroom 2 Bath home in Malvern, Arkansas! This one owner home offers a peace of mind with new roof, newer appliances, etc. Formal Living, Formal Dining, Large Master Suite and master bath offering double vanity; Spacious backyard boasting a unique spring feed pond and large storage building. Perfect for family barbecues and outdoor entertaining!

Key facts

• Extra storage
• Storage building
• New water heater

Tags

• NEW WATER HEATER
• EXTRA STORAGE
• STORAGE BUILDING
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• UPDATED ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with automatic door opener; 2 covered parking spaces; Asphalt driveway
• Security: Fire sprinkler system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Public water; Water service available
• Home design: Single-story property; Brick exterior; Built 25+ years ago; Asphalt shingle roof; Brick/mortar foundation
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Split-possible lot; Public road frontage

Interior

• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Electric water heater
• Interior features: No additional interior features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.1% in Malvern — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#215 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Malvern School District (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #207 of 238 in AR (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Malvern Elementary School (math 28% / reading 20%, grade F, #359 of 454 statewide, top 79%, 701 students, 77% FRL); Malvern Junior High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #170 of 201 statewide, top 86%, 299 students, 75% FRL); Malvern High School (math 14% / reading 25%, grade F, #239 of 292 statewide, top 85%, 575 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 171 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4 units permitted in Hot Spring County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hot Spring County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,000 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.76%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,850
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1700 Texas St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,928 (-1%)	7mo	$175,000	$91	87
819 Hall St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,948 (-0%)	4mo	$236,000	$121	83
1117 Pine Bluff St	0.46mi	3/2.0	2,012 (+3%)	2mo	$105,000	$52	71
718 Mcbee St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,841 (-6%)	1mo	$42,000	$23	64
1616 Pine Bluff St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,912 (-2%)	6mo	$250,000	$131	61
1521 Locust St	0.62mi	3/3.0	1,947 (-0%)	11mo	$200,000	$103	57
2106 Taylor St	0.55mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,860 (-5%)	4mo	$196,000	$105	56
722 Pine Bluff St	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,182 (+12%)	5mo	$120,000	$55	48
1503 Dogwood Trl	0.70mi	3/2.0	2,136 (+10%)	4mo	$64,500	$30	48
816 Pine Bluff St	0.48mi	3/2.0	2,212 (+13%)	11mo	$235,000	$106	46
2139 S Main St St	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,740 (-11%)	13mo	$198,000	$114	40
1625 Circle Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,228 (+14%)	4mo	$169,000	$76	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-13,276
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,491
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72104

• Home prices YoY: -7.3%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,015/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,146

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $243	-5% $202	+0% $161	+5% $120	+10% $79
Rent	-10% $54	-5% $108	+0% $161	+5% $214	+10% $268
Rate	-1.0pp $234	-0.5pp $198	base $161	+0.5pp $124	+1.0pp $85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22767 U.S. 67 Malvern, AR	3.0	2.0	1894	$1,350	$0.71	46d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-22
   remarks 548-char remark
2. 2026-06-22
   listed $145,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,015 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,015 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,015
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$473
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$113
• After-tax cash flow: $2,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Malvern School District
• NCES district ID: 0509240
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $35,370
• Composite: 17.76/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #207 of 238 in AR

Livability — Malvern

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #215
• US rank: #16632

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Malvern, AR
• Population (ZIP): 23,222

Population outlook (Hot Spring County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,464 people
• By 2030: 34,659 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 34,486 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 33,419 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 28,702 · -16.7%
• By 2100: 21,415 · -37.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 16% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hot Spring

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 22.9% · R 75.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+48.7 2016: R+42.5 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.79%
• Current HPI: 211.6419
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+12.4% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $145,000 NWARMLS
• 2019-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2019-02-11 Sold (MLS) $100,000 CARMLS
• 2018-12-17 Pending — CARMLS
• 2018-06-02 Listed $109,923 CARMLS
• 2017-10-28 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2017-09-22 Price Changed $96,500 CARMLS
• 2017-07-28 Listed $99,990 CARMLS
• 2017-06-17 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2017-05-18 Price Changed $99,990 CARMLS
• 2017-03-10 Price Changed $109,900 CARMLS
• 2017-03-10 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2017-02-17 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2016-11-18 Listed $114,900 CARMLS
• 2016-10-29 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2016-09-01 Price Changed $119,950 CARMLS
• 2016-07-19 Price Changed $124,500 CARMLS
• 2016-05-26 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2016-05-26 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2016-05-12 Price Changed $126,500 CARMLS
• 2016-03-03 Listed $129,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,015 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.