8535 Mathews Rd · Lakeland, FL 33809

$37,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1984

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ocated on a desirable corner lot within a family-friendly community, this well-maintained 1984 mobile home offers 840 square feet of comfortable living space with 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The home features laminate flooring throughout, newer stainless steel appliances, and a functional layout designed for everyday living. A durable metal roof adds long-term value and peace of mind. The monthly lot rent includes water, sewer, trash, and lawn care with no pass-through taxes, making ownership both simple and affordable. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants, schools, and major roadways, this property offers comfortable Florida living in a welcoming community.

Key facts

• Durable metal roof
• Laminate flooring
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DURABLE METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 259 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $259 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,375 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 45.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 141.18%
• DSCR: 7.28
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.10×
• Total profit: $64,067
• Equity at exit: $5,591

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.84×
• Total profit: $134,820
• Equity at exit: $3,242

Cash invested: $10,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33809

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,892 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$197
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$47 /mo · $562/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $1,169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $412

Max offer price $37,500

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,195	-5% $1,182	+0% $1,169	+5% $1,156	+10% $1,143
Rent	-10% $1,019	-5% $1,094	+0% $1,169	+5% $1,244	+10% $1,318
Rate	-1.0pp $1,188	-0.5pp $1,178	base $1,169	+0.5pp $1,159	+1.0pp $1,149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,375
• Closing costs: $1,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8006 Brookeshire Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,890	$1.45	20d	1	0.92mi
8039 Ridgeglen Cir E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,895	$1.37	11d	1	1.28mi
858 Fox Lake Dr Unit 858 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,495	$1.15	11d	1	1.37mi
734 Fox Lake Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,910	$1.43	4d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $37,500 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $37,500 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $37,500 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,500 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,500 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $40,500 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,500 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,500 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $40,500 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $40,500 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $40,500 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,500 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,500 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-05-16
    listed $40,500 Active
15. 2024-11-13
    historical $950
16. 2024-11-10
    historical $950
17. 2024-11-08
    listed $950
18. 2024-11-08
    listed $1,050
19. 2024-09-27
    historical $1,100
20. 2024-09-25
    listed $1,100
21. 2024-09-25
    historical $1,350
22. 2024-09-24
    listed $1,350
23. 2015-11-23
    soldstatus $1,125,000
24. 2005-01-21
    soldstatus $1,300,000
25. 1984-04-01
    soldstatus $228,300
26. 1983-09-01
    soldstatus $28,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,101
• − Property taxes: −$562
• − Insurance: −$985
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,816
• − Management: −$1,816
• − Depreciation: −$1,091
• Taxable income: $14,330
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,439
• After-tax cash flow: $10,587/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,797
• Household income: $70,066
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 924.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.46%
• Current HPI: 301.3054
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.65%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+44.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $40,500 FSBO.com
• 2024-11-13 Rental Removed $950 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-11-10 Rental Removed $950 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-11-08 Listed for Rent $950 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-11-08 Listed for Rent $1,050 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-27 Rental Removed $1,100 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-25 Listed for Rent $1,100 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-25 Rental Removed $1,350 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-24 Listed for Rent $1,350 RENTALBEAST
• 2015-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $1,125,000 Public Records
• 2005-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $1,300,000 Public Records
• 1984-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $228,300 Public Records
• 1983-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $32,069 · +17.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.